So...How are Sales of 4E Product?

[thecasualoblivion]

To be fair, Paizo does not sell at all through the FLGS. I think that Paizo has made a mistake with the stores with their subscription program. The stores have little incentive to stock it.

Paizo is a niche product. It doesn't have the name recognition of something like D&D or World of Darkness. Its a product bought by those "in the know" and not by the average gamer. Their subscription program fits their business.

 

[The Little Raven]

So far we only know that 4E sold better than expected.

We know more than that.

We know that at least the initial print run for 4e was 50% larger than the print-run for 3.5, which was larger than the 3e print-run by an unspecified amount. That means if 3.5 was 100,000 copies, then 4e was 150,000 copies. So, we know they printed more 4e books initially than 3.5 and 3e books.

We also know that they sold out that first print-run a week before the game launched, which required a second print-run to be ordered. That second print-run sold out within two months after the game's release, prompting them to order a third print-run.

And while this technically means that 4E is so far a success, we don't know what the expectations were nor do we have any other evidence which hints at how good 4E really sells.

We can use precedent to determine their expectations might have been. 3e's first print run sold out in about 3-4 months (December 2000), prompting them to order their second print-run at that time. So, they might have expected a 3-4 month sell period to go through their first print-run, since that's what history showed them the market supported at one point. The fact that at the 4 month point in 4e's life cycle they were two complete print-runs ahead of that sales record speaks volumes about how well it's selling.

Pair that with the fact that the number one online direct-to-customer retailer in the world for books (Amazon) has them on their top 25 for 2008 (beating out a Stephen King novel, even), saying that we don't know if it's selling well is just denying reality.

We don't even know if WotC was talking about selling to stores or selling to customers.

We do know that WotC is a successful business that knows far more about the publishing industry than we do, so I don't see them jumping the gun and pumping out print-runs that aren't being sold through to customers, especially in light of the fact that they directly learned that was one of the things that killed TSR (overprinting unwanted product, resulting in a huge amount of stock with no value).

 

[The Little Raven]

Erik Mona is a sexy little man.

I just threw up in my mouth a little.

But seriously, Erik is a class act, and I'm thrilled for him that Pathfinder is kicking ass and taking names. Him and his people took a gamble by deviating their core business away from the path of the industry giant, and that alone deserves admiration and respect, regardless of whether you like Pathfinder or not. I'm not a Pathfinder fan (though I do like the art), but I've got nothing but respect for the Paizo crew. And while I'm at it, I'll kiss the Rouse's ass, too. Not only is he a gentleman and a scholar, he's a snappy dresser with an unmatched rapier wit.

Look, I know that I've been involved in all this edition war crap as strongly as many others, but the election yesterday made me realize a few things about it. We spend too much time defining ourselves by our differences, which is what causes conflict, rather than focusing on our similarities, which is what brings us together. So, I'd like to extend the olive branch to all the anti-4e people I've clashed with, so we can get past this "my game can beat up your game" nonsense and get back to what this community is about: loving games and sharing that love with everyone else.

 

[jgbrowning]

So, I'd like to extend the olive branch to all the anti-4e people I've clashed with, so we can get past this "my game can beat up your game" nonsense and get back to what this community is about: loving games and sharing that love with everyone else.

My game can beat up your game. It has lasers on its head.

joe "Synnibarr" b.

 

[The Little Raven]

My game can beat up your game.

My message of peace has failed. This means war, Browning!

It has lasers on its head.

Every game deserves a hot meal.

joe "Synnibarr" b.

I really did just throw up in my mouth a little.

 

[Pramas]

I talk to a lot of retailers and distributor reps at trade shows and suchlike. The story I heard over and over was that the core books sold really well, but then sales on 4E dropped off a lot faster than they expected. One retailer at the Diamond/Alliance Open House in September told me he had stopped carrying 4E entirely because his customers had tried it and gone back to 3.5. Overall I have heard a lot concern about 4E splitting the market.

For me it's the third party market that's more of interest. Certainly this is not 2001, when many new companies broke in and lots of money was made in the RPG sector. I haven't talked to any other 3PP publishers that say their 4E products are going gangbusters. Green Ronin is releasing our new Character Record Folio soon and that should give me some solid data. The original d20 System Character Record Folio is our best selling product of all time. We'll see how the 4E one stacks up.

 

[malraux]

I talk to a lot of retailers and distributor reps at trade shows and suchlike. The story I heard over and over was that the core books sold really well, but then sales on 4E dropped off a lot faster than they expected. One retailer at the Diamond/Alliance Open House in September told me he had stopped carrying 4E entirely because his customers had tried it and gone back to 3.5. Overall I have heard a lot concern about 4E splitting the market.

I wonder if 4e is seeing a split in distribution channels. I'm buying all my 4e stuff from Amazon, not my LGS.* Especially if game stores are not stocking 4e items, they aren't going to develop the customer base for the new products.

*: At my LGS, I've looked a few times for 4e stuff. Every time I ask, the response is always that they don't have it in stock, but can order it for me. Unfortunately, that just means I'm gonna go order it from Amazon myself, and that I'm unlikely to stop by in the future.

 

[thecasualoblivion]

I talk to a lot of retailers and distributor reps at trade shows and suchlike. The story I heard over and over was that the core books sold really well, but then sales on 4E dropped off a lot faster than they expected. One retailer at the Diamond/Alliance Open House in September told me he had stopped carrying 4E entirely because his customers had tried it and gone back to 3.5. Overall I have heard a lot concern about 4E splitting the market.

For me it's the third party market that's more of interest. Certainly this is not 2001, when many new companies broke in and lots of money was made in the RPG sector. I haven't talked to any other 3PP publishers that say their 4E products are going gangbusters. Green Ronin is releasing our new Character Record Folio soon and that should give me some solid data. The original d20 System Character Record Folio is our best selling product of all time. We'll see how the 4E one stacks up.

Well, 4E was kinda designed to split the market by means of its break from the OGL. Sure, there is the GSL but that is a license to publish supplemental material for 4E D&D itself and nothing further. It isn't the 3PP free for all the OGL was, and 4E has gone out of its way to break away from that. Since 4E disengaged from the OGL, it isn't a single market anymore.

EDIT: In Addition--

As for FLGS reports, communities tend to be self selecting. I don't live in a major metropolis, and the regular crowds at the couple of FLGSs that have come and gone in my area have usually been between 1 and 3 gaming groups. Not a large selection. Most of the RPG sales catered to these core groups, and these groups tended to follow a similar path. At my current FLGS, there are two D&D groups, and both have switched to 4E almost entirely. With this small of a cross section, adopting/not adopting 4E doesn't really mean much.

 

[Jack99]

For me it's the third party market that's more of interest. Certainly this is not 2001, when many new companies broke in and lots of money was made in the RPG sector. I haven't talked to any other 3PP publishers that say their 4E products are going gangbusters. Green Ronin is releasing our new Character Record Folio soon and that should give me some solid data. The original d20 System Character Record Folio is our best selling product of all time. We'll see how the 4E one stacks up.

I doubt it will. GR has from the get-go of 4e not been supportive, nor shown any interest in supporting the game. I think many people will not be interested in a 4e product coming from you guys. I mean, why buy a 4e product from a company that seems to have next to no interest in supporting the game?

This is of course just my personal opinion, and I could be completely wrong.

Good luck with it.

 

[DaveMage]

GR has from the get-go of 4e not been supportive, nor shown any interest in supporting the game.

This is not true. One of Chris' earliest 4E blogs talks about Green Ronin's intent to do Power Cards for 4E, which they were unable to do (IIRC) because of the GSL.

Here's the link - see the third entry.