Pramas: Does 4E have staying power?

[Herschel]

Certain people who are in position of authority don't get to take the position of "just sharing opinion", since their opinion is viewed as more informed than most, and the sharing of it can have significant impact on people's opinions and behavior. For someone like Chris Pramas to be "just sharing opinion" is disingenuous, since he knows perfectly well (as do we) that many people will take his opinion to be either fact or indicative of the facts.

Who is Chris Pramas and why do I care what he thinks any more than anyone else on this board or at my local game store?

Herschel - you're new to the boards, and may not have seen our FAQ. Please note that we don't call fellow posters names, as we try to discuss things politely and respectfully on these boards. --Eridanis

Yeah, I'm not there yet either.

 

[thecasualoblivion]

Online sales at Amazon, IMO, were spearheaded by selling the Core Gift set for $60. That was a discount too high to ignore, and got a lot of attention. They've been selling later books at around a 33% discount, which has done a lot to keep people shopping at Amazon, again IMO. Given that Amazon sales are not a part of any predictors available to the public, I would call any speculation on the success/lack of success for 4E just that, speculation. WotC has said 4E was selling well, and there is nothing beyond speculation to dispute that.

 

[Darkwolf71]

There has to be something that accounts for the fact that Pramas' sources are contradicted by the actual sales charting data that is available to us.

Source? Or are you just blowing smoke?
Yeah, you don't need to answer that.

I am not saying that 4e is tanking, I don't think Pramas was really saying that either, I'm just commenting that his sources and my anecdotal experience (givin up-thread) happen to agree.

 

[Herschel]

Except that the fact that 4e core gift set made the yearly top 100 list on amazon could indicate that 4e sells more over the net than previous editions. In which case, it would matter.

Also look at the trend where more people shop online and those that do do a higher percentage online each year, in many cases. Can't say I like it, but I did buy the core set from Amazon for a Christmas Gift for my son. I like the box configuration, even though I bought the three loose for myself from my FLGS. I buy as much local as I can and am a big supporter of local game stores but I do dip in to the online pool at times myself. As we see even on this board MANY people only equate value as price, and online can usually offer better prices.

 

[Vendark]

What is that?

USA Today's Best Selling database, which at least gives an idea how books performed relative to other books on the market. Consider that 4E has only been on the market 6 months and has had two supplements chart, whereas 3.X was on the market 7 or 8 years and appears to have had only one supplement chart; it suggests that 4E supplements are actually performing quite well in the current market.

They may still be underperforming their hopes for raw sales numbers, but if so that would likely be down to the market rather than the product.

 

[Aeolius]

Granted, some of the initial sales of the 4e core books were by people who then chose not to play the newer edition. I bought the 4e books, took a look, and decided not to use them. (I keep them prisoner in a dark cold place)

 

[Herschel]

Granted, some of the initial sales of the 4e core books were by people who then chose not to play the newer edition. I bought the 4e books, took a look, and decided not to use them. (I keep them prisoner in a dark cold place)

My ex (and her soul) lives in North Carolina now? Who knew!

 

[Jack99]

I am going to leave this debate again I think. We did it for like 30 pages just a few weeks ago, and I have no desire to repeat that again. I feel like Shirley Valentine in these threads.

Have fun.

 

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

Granted, some of the initial sales of the 4e core books were by people who then chose not to play the newer edition. I bought the 4e books, took a look, and decided not to use them.

Yeah, but doesn't this happen to a lot of gaming books? I own
- Exalted 2E. Will never play it, at least not unless I find a very different group (and like it there )
- Warhammer 40K Dark Heresy. Doubt I ever play it.
- Traveller. Maybe will play it.
- MonteCooks World of Darkness. Interesting to read. Will never play it.
- Startrek Players Guide. Never played it, never will. More a fan-buy then anything else.
- Starwars SAGA. Doesn't look like we get to play that anytime soon, even if I'd love to.
These are books I bought and considered we might _perhaps_ play them, but most likely not.

- Shadowrun 3E and 4E. Played 3E more then 4E, neither at the moment.
- Warhammer Fantasy Roleplay 2E. Played it a little, but not anymore, and it doesn't look as if we will be going back anytime soon...
- Das Schwarze Auge. I played it, still don't like it.
- Starwars Revised Edition. Definitely never again.
These are core books we actually played with, but most likely won't go back to. Few perks, some flaws, nah, let's go back to something else. D&D, Torg, Iron Heroes...

I hope we'll get back to a little Shadowrun 4, but it doesn't look like it.

(I keep them prisoner in a dark cold place)

 

[billd91]

People sure are making a lot of assumptions out of very little data.

The USA Today best seller list is based on reports from certain stores and, as quoted from their site:

Reporting stores include: Amazon.com, B. Dalton Bookseller, Barnes & Noble.com, Barnes & Noble Inc., Books-A-Million.com, Books-A-Million and Bookland, Borders Books & Music, Bookstar, Bookstop, Brentano's, Davis Kidd Booksellers (Nashville, Jackson, Memphis in Tenn.), Doubleday Book Shops, Hudson Booksellers, Joseph-Beth Booksellers (Lexington, Ky.; Cincinnati, Cleveland), Powell's Books (Portland, Ore.), Powells.com, R.J. Julia Booksellers (Madison, Conn.), Schuler Books & Music (Grand Rapids, Mich.), Target, Tattered Cover Book Store (Denver), Waldenbooks.

Yes, some big hitters there. But we know very little about what proportion these mix with when it comes to reporting D&D books. It's quite possible that good USA Today best seller rankings do not conflict at all with Pramas's informants, even if they are represented in the very same list. It could be that the market has shifted toward getting new D&D books from Amazon and away from the outlets they know about. It could be that the market hasn't really shifted but that there are segments of it where 4e doesn't have legs.

About all we can really infer, if they are correct in what they told Pramas, is that there are segments of the market where 3e supplements, several years into the product, are selling as well as the new shiny. That could be because 3e still has life left in it. It could be because 4e isn't doing it for some people who tend to shop at those outlets. It could be because the outlets also serve omelettes on alternate Thursdays and, as everyone knows, that favors the sale of 3e supplements...