Goodman rebuttal

[Hunter In Darkness]

Then act like it, Socrates.

Never read him so ya lost me there

 

[BryonD]

On the other hand we have quibbles about how complete these pieces of evidence really are, and a few people's personal testimony about their friends and neighbors.

You mean things like Goodman saying that the first year of 4E wasn't as good as the first year of 3E and it isn't fair to even compare to that generational high point?

Or do you mean things like Clark saying the whole distribution chain is down on 4E?

I think it is important to keep in mind the distinction between WotC's D&D sales and what is happening in the 3PP market.

4E is selling well. Well enough for WotC. I think that is a clear and simple fact.

It may be blowing the doors off their expectations or someone may be getting taken to task every week for why it doesn't bring in buckets of gold by the truck every week. Comparing to projections is unknown and subjective. But profitable is (by and large) clear.

Does 4E have the sustained selling power of 3E? Now we are in to pure opinion. My opinion is no. I might be wrong. We may find out, we may never really know.

More on the topic at hand: How is the 3PP market?
It sucks. That, again, is my opinion.
If you are Goodman, it is doing well. That is technically opinion, but it seems unreasonable to me to not call it fact.

There is a lot of fact blowing around and there is a lot of opinion blowing around and they both cut both ways.

One could just as easily say that D&D's days as the king of games is starting to waiver and disputing that is nothing more than denialism.
I don't think that is right. But it is no more wrong than your spin.

 

[Bumbles]

Never read him so ya lost me there

I am the wisest man alive, for I know one thing, and that is that I know nothing.
Socrates

 

[xechnao]

The point is that some people in this thread are acting spectacularly crappy toward Mr. Goodman (and, in another thread, toward Mr. Peterson) without good justification. Publishers have been known to go on long sabbaticals or close up shop completely because they get sick of dealing with throngs of hypercritical 'fans' who never (or rarely) have anything positive to say. Simply put, there is a ton of crap to deal with for relatively little reward.

I see. I could think this behavior exists because today the customer does not see nor understands the labor behind publishing a product the same way as he understands the labor behind some good marketing or developing a good product. Having said that I am curious about the potential of POD and when it will really take off. Today still, Lulu seems to be a monopoly running things half as good as it could.

 

[carmachu]

Yes, and a downturn for FLGS has nothing to do with M:tG cooling off or being a slow time for Games Workshop.

Amazon and discount places never hurt FLGS in terms of M:tG, though eBay might have. None of those three affected Games Workshop sales that much.

I have to slightly disagree. I know online dsicounters can and do hurt GLGS in regard to Games WOrkshop items. Gods know I never play full price of anything from tehm and know I'm not alone.

I'll assume there are similar places for M:tG.....Anyone who plays the game know?

 

[thecasualoblivion]

You mean things like Goodman saying that the first year of 4E wasn't as good as the first year of 3E and it isn't fair to even compare to that generational high point?

3E was released after a lengthy dry spell, with people aching for something new and fresh. The OGL was brand new and the sky was the limit. 4E was launched when 3E was just beginning to slow down, so the anticipation was less. The 3pp market crashed, stabilized, and then began to tail off a bit before 4E was launched. The environment at launch was a big cause of 3E's initial success, and 4E's just doesn't match those circumstances.

Or do you mean things like Clark saying the whole distribution chain is down on 4E?

I have to say he's talking about his world here, the 3pp world. Goodman Games worked hard to stay relevant, and others who haven't done so now face an uphill battle with distributors.

I think it is important to keep in mind the distinction between WotC's D&D sales and what is happening in the 3PP market.

4E is selling well. Well enough for WotC. I think that is a clear and simple fact.

It may be blowing the doors off their expectations or someone may be getting taken to task every week for why it doesn't bring in buckets of gold by the truck every week. Comparing to projections is unknown and subjective. But profitable is (by and large) clear.

Does 4E have the sustained selling power of 3E? Now we are in to pure opinion. My opinion is no. I might be wrong. We may find out, we may never really know.

I think your opinion implies a strong correlation between sustained selling power and 3pp support, or at the very least the customizability and flexibility of 3.5E. I happen to believe that 4E will have more than enough sustained selling power to live out its natural life of 8-10 years, and I don't think 3pp will or would have had that much of an impact either way.

More on the topic at hand: How is the 3PP market?
It sucks. That, again, is my opinion.
If you are Goodman, it is doing well. That is technically opinion, but it seems unreasonable to me to not call it fact.

There is a lot of fact blowing around and there is a lot of opinion blowing around and they both cut both ways.

One could just as easily say that D&D's days as the king of games is starting to waiver and disputing that is nothing more than denialism.
I don't think that is right. But it is no more wrong than your spin.

Again, this implies that D&D's being the king of games includes strong 3pp support to be true. Even during the darkest days of TSR, D&D never really lost that title(though White Wolf might have gotten close), and prior to that had almost zero support from 3pp for most of the 20 years prior to 3E, in which D&D was the king of RPGs.

I understand that things look bleak for those who value the OGL movement and D&D's participation in it, but it isn't a universally held opinion. I'm perfectly happy playing core D&D, and I have been since the early 90's. The game serves me better by being the best core D&D it can be(as 4E strives to be) as opposed to a flexible one-size-fits-all game(that 3E partnered with the OGL strove to be).

 

[jdrakeh]

I could think this behavior exists because today the customer does not see nor understands the labor behind publishing a product the same way as he understands the labor behind some good marketing or developing a good product.

In my experience the problem arises when a consumer doesn't understand any of that, likes to think they understand all of it, and subsequently floods a publisher's inbox(es) with 'friendly' or 'helpful' criticism.

Having said that I am curious about the potential of POD and when it will really take off. Today still, Lulu seems to be a monopoly running things half as good as it could.

Well, Lulu's perceived shortcomings are actually hundreds of times better than things like the previously proposed Amazon monopoly which would have forced many people currently using Lulu completely out of the POD market, due to insane per unit price increases and draconian contracts.

 

[carmachu]

I can see this. Except for used books, I haven't purchased any RPG book from an FLGS in the last four years. Everything has been through Amazon.com (amazon prime shipping is awesome) and to a lesser degree from Paizo's online store and whatever the name is for Catalyst's store for Shadowrun.

Any browsing of physical books tends to happen at GenCon, which is the only time of the year I'll buy books without the sort of discounts I can get online.

Of course, the shift to online sales away from FLGSs also impacts best sellers lists too (since AFAIK sales in FLGSs don't tend to count as much or at all compared to big box stores, amazon, etc). But that's for another discussion entirely.

I have to be honest: FLGS havent been useful or relevant for me in....5 years? 10 years? While it may just be my area, they arent any help or use. Whether its for my GW wargaming or looking for a RPG group or needs, they have ben utterly unhelpful in that regard. I dont spend one dime in one and dont plan on doing so in the future.

Ages ago I use to be an advocate for them, but experience has shown me its literally a one way street. I'd support them, but their support of me, so to speak, wasnt there.

*shrug* The internet takes care of all my needs. I can browse in my fuzzy slippers instead of trekking 45 minutes to see a bare shelf for wargaming models or only the latest hottest for RPG's or such. Or terrible times for actual playing....I can go on.

I can browse at my lesiure on the internet. Converse with my wargaming group and set a time and day. Found my current RPG group on a games/people finder, track down that book I was looking for....and so on.

Gmes shops vital to the industry? Maybe, but maybe not....its welcome to the 21st century.....

 

[Pseudopsyche]

Either way though, it's irrelevant how well they are doing as compared to back i n the day. What matters is how well they are doing as compared to how well Hasbro wants them to do. How well are they meeting their revenue goals for the year?

Forgive me, I don't usually participate in these industry threads, and I feel like I am missing an important premise. Why does it matter how well WotC is performing compared to Hasbro's goals?

Are people worried that WotC will declare bankruptcy and, being "too big to fail", will bring down the entire hobby with them? (Presumably, WotC is not in line for any government bailout money.) Or are so many people in this forum considering publishing 4E material and need to know how risky the market is (whether WotC will continue supporting 4E)?

What's it to you that WotC meets some projected dollar amount set by Hasbro?

 

[xechnao]

In my experience the problem arises when a consumer doesn't understand any of that, likes to think they understand all of it, and subsequently floods a publisher's inbox(es) with 'friendly' or 'helpful' criticism.

Well consumers are conditioned to react with their feedback in the ever reaching marketing campaigns-propaganda environment they are carpet bombed with all the time. But I see what you are saying. I really do. I blame it on today's nature of doing business.