As long as we are talking hypothetically...

[ggroy]

AD&D was losing market share when it was replaced with 2Ed. After a surge of sales, the game continued to lose market share to games like SJG's GURPS, Herosystems' HERO, White Wolf's WoD and Palladium's RIFTS- games that owed little or nothing to TSR's IP.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing happening, if 2E AD&D was never released.

 

[ShinHakkaider]

The way I see Pathfinder is as a piece of the 3.5E puzzle, and that it is unlikely it will eclipse 3.5E itself in the RPG community. As I predict that the 3.5E community will dwindle to the levels we see AD&D played within 3-4 years, I would expect Pathfinder to follow suit.

Here's the difference though. When AD&D ended, it ended. There wasnt a company as well versed, organized and creative as Paizo out there still supporting the edition.

There is no more "official" 3.5 support, but Paizo is close enough to that. As long as Paizo is releasing support for their game I don't think that it will taper off as much as you seem to think it will. Either way, like I said before, if it does and I can't find people to play with I'll just walk away from the hobby.

 

[MichaelK]

I don't know anyone (at all) playing 4e, so for me it's like 3rd edition has just stopped printing new books. I'm not really interested in pathfinder. I finally have a complete set of D&D with the guarantee that no more books will come out.

So I'll continue to run my games in 3.5 and if new players come along who don't know 3.5 then I'll teach them.

Maybe 5e will interest me. I'll get back to you on that one in 10 years.

Besides, if it ever reached the point that I could no longer find people to play 3rd edition, I'd just run GURPS instead. 4e is irrelevant to me.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

As I said, I think it will take time, as in 3-4 years. I don't see 3.5E recruiting enough new players to replace departing ones to maintain its current popularity.

I don't think it will maintain its current popularity either. However, I think it will occupy a 2nd tier- above games like Pathfinder, True20, M&M, etc.- for quite a while.

And if you take 3.X as a whole, I think it may rival 4Ed for a while, and only a major non-D&D game like GURPS, HERO or WoD would challenge 3.X games for 2nd place in the market.

IMHO, though, the real wildcard will be whether 4Ed itself can continue its popularity. I've brought up the specter New Coke scenario a few times- namely that a new product hits the market replacing a still-popular product and initially outsells it...but then falters. As it does so, the product it was slated to replace experiences a resurgence.

Its too early to know yet whether 4Ed is converting enough old gamers and attracting enough new gamers to retain the crown it currently wears. I expect it to- the New Coke scenario is exceedingly rare- but its still quite possible. The main reason I can see that it wouldn't is that, unlike in the New Coke case, the market for the original product is a lot more balkanized.

New Coke lost out to Classic Coke and (eventually) to Pepsi. To be dethroned, 4Ed would have to lose out to 3.5, 3Ed, True20, Pathfinder, M&M/W&W, AU/AE, Midnight, etc.

 

[carmachu]

In a nutshell as long as I can find gamers who want to play Pathfinder or other games that I play I'll keep running and playing. When that stops, I walk away from the hobby.

Yeah this. As long as I can find gamers for 3.5/OGL/Pathfinder I'll keep playing. If all three die off, 4e or 5e will not get my partonagea nd I'll move on to a different hobby.

 

[thecasualoblivion]

Here's the difference though. When AD&D ended, it ended. There wasnt a company as well versed, organized and creative as Paizo out there still supporting the edition.

There is no more "official" 3.5 support, but Paizo is close enough to that. As long as Paizo is releasing support for their game I don't think that it will taper off as much as you seem to think it will. Either way, like I said before, if it does and I can't find people to play with I'll just walk away from the hobby.

While I don't deny Pathfinder is an excellent company, it isn't D&D. I would be surprised if after Pathfinder's launch it captured more than 50% of the 3.5E playing community. I'd actually expect the number to be around 20-25%. In addition, I believe that there will be a substantial separation bewteen the 3.5E and Pathfinder communities. 3.5E's major issue over the next few years is going to be recruiting new players. There is turnover in the RPG community, as real life and changing gaming trends take people out of the hobby. I don't think a dead edition of D&D or a 3rd party with a brand name that doesn't compare to D&D is going to keep the flow of new players enough to maintain market share.

 

[Windjammer]

...comment on your response to the following scenario... OGL based gaming begins a slow decline, with the big names soldiering on

It was bad enough that Paizo continued to pay the steep entry price for regular top-notch contributions by Rob Lazarretti. Bad enough that they care to pay big names in the industry, like Elaine Cunningham, to write them inspiring flavour texts in their modules. But now that they announced that Jeff Grub will be writing for Pathfinder too, that's really the final straw.

Paizo, it's time for us to part ways - time for me to pick a company that not only doesn't value experience but avoids it!

.... Edit. Oh, you didn't mean big names of authors but of companies...

In all earnest, and minus the snark, I think it's a good question where Paizo is heading in the larger scheme of things. They've been steadily growing their business in the last two years and while I agree with some here that their RPG won't ever completely supplant 3.5, their product line as such doesn't require that. All they need is for the pre-4E d20 crowd to feel they can continue buying product for their system of choice. Honestly, the real question for me is just how long Paizo will be there, and if their 3.5 spin off will outlive 4E. That would be a curious end result, as intruiging as if a current RPG company started to capitalize on 2E.

 

[ggroy]

While I don't deny Pathfinder is an excellent company, it isn't D&D. I would be surprised if after Pathfinder's launch it captured more than 50% of the 3.5E playing community. I'd actually expect the number to be around 20-25%. In addition, I believe that there will be a substantial separation bewteen the 3.5E and Pathfinder communities. 3.5E's major issue over the next few years is going to be recruiting new players. There is turnover in the RPG community, as real life and changing gaming trends take people out of the hobby. I don't think a dead edition of D&D or a 3rd party with a brand name that doesn't compare to D&D is going to keep the flow of new players enough to maintain market share.

With respect to Pathfinder products, I do like their excellent adventure paths, modules, and Golarion setting products. I mainly convert them to 4E rules for my campaign, which is relatively easy using the encounter building guidelines in the 4E DMG.

On the other hand, I am not a convert to the Pathfinder PFRPG. I will buy the core book and the bestiary to look over for interesting tidbits I could use for other games. But I don't think I will ever DM a PFRPG game. Or for that matter, I may very well never DM another 3E/3.5E game either.

 

[thecasualoblivion]

It was bad enough that Paizo continued to pay the steep entry price for regular top-notch contributions by Rob Lazarretti. Bad enough that they care to pay big names in the industry, like Elaine Cunningham, to write them inspiring flavour texts in their modules. But now that they announced that Jeff Grub will be writing for Pathfinder too, that's really the final straw.

Paizo, it's time for us to part ways - time for me to pick a company that not only doesn't value experience but avoids it!

For what its worth, by big names I meant Green Ronin, Mongoose, ect.

 

[thecasualoblivion]

With respect to Pathfinder products, I do like their excellent adventure paths, modules, and Golarion setting products. I mainly convert them to 4E rules for my campaign, which is relatively easy using the encounter building guidelines in the 4E DMG.

On the other hand, I am not a convert to the Pathfinder PFRPG. I will buy the core book and the bestiary to look over for interesting tidbits I could use for other games. But I don't think I will ever DM a PFRPG game. Or for that matter, I may very well never DM another 3E/3.5E game either.

To put it in more simple terms:

I don't believe Pathfinder and Paizo are big enough names to maintain 3.5E at the level it is at now.

Pathfinder and Paizo can be successful by 3PP and their own standards and still fail to accomplish the above.