A road not taken: What if there had been no 4E

[doctorhook]

re: Setting specific.

Um, why would Races of Eberron and Monsters of Faerun be considered generic? Didn't they have the campaign logos on them?

Nope. Aside from the titles of these books, they had "generic" covers. Monsters of Faerun looked like another Monster Manual, while Races of Eberron had the same generic cover style as Races of Stone and Races of Destiny. (AFAIK though, Races of Faerun had a Realms-style cover.)

 

[Echohawk]

... though that leads to some stuff like Races of Eberron and Monsters of Faerun being counted as generic.

The presence of a logo wasn't an absolute rule. There were a few edge cases like those two and WG4 which are setting-specific but don't have a setting logo. I tried to catch those ones manually. Not sure if I got them all but it shouldn't make a huge difference to the graphs.

 

[Jack99]

I'm going to guess that it is on the magnitude of requiring a good 25,000 books a month to be sold to keep going. D&D is a rather niche market. If estimates are to be believed, near the end of 3e, the number of people playing D&D was down to 200,000 worldwide. If you do the math on that one, it requires an eighth of the entire D&D population to buy a book from you every month in order to survive. From some other estimates I've heard thrown around, 50,000 books sold in the opening month of a product is fairly good sales for a book. Lesser books sell only 20k-30k copies. Core books sell closer to 100k-150k.

I am curious, what estimates are you talking about when you mention 200k players worldwide towards the end of 3.5?

 

[Mercurius]

Echohawk, you are my new nerd hero! (nerdro?) Those charts are awesome. A question: the vertical axis is total number of products produced within a calendar year, right? Does that include everything D&D related, such as novels? I just have a hard time believing that TSR produced almost 80 products in 1995 (!).

JohnRTroy, I believe there is a wider margin with hardcovers, but also greater production cost, thus more risk. This is why first-time novelists often don't get published in hardcover, at least in genre fiction.

 

[Echohawk]

I'm not sure I would have included #97 and #101; neither one was a "rules" product. Instead, they were both more like thin, expensive retrospectives -- but AFAIK, neither one introduced anything actually useful to the game. Alternatively, if both of these books are counted, then so should the "30 Years of D&D" hardcover coffee-table book.

Good point, but unlike #97 and #101, "30 Years of D&D" doesn't actually have the D&D logo on the cover, so I didn't think it should be included. Otherwise, A Practical Guide to Dragons should also qualify since that's hardcover book that is clearly about D&D dragons...

I do agree with you that the cut-off point is fairly arbitrary though.

Also, IIRC, there were also Deluxe leatherbound copies of the core books available.

Yeah, I didn't put the deluxe versions on the list. I've been entering a lot of data over on Geekdō.com lately, so I've become brainwashed into using their submission guidelines to distinguish "items" from "versions"

 

[ggroy]

I'm going to guess that it is on the magnitude of requiring a good 25,000 books a month to be sold to keep going. D&D is a rather niche market. If estimates are to be believed, near the end of 3e, the number of people playing D&D was down to 200,000 worldwide. If you do the math on that one, it requires an eighth of the entire D&D population to buy a book from you every month in order to survive. From some other estimates I've heard thrown around, 50,000 books sold in the opening month of a product is fairly good sales for a book. Lesser books sell only 20k-30k copies. Core books sell closer to 100k-150k.

Where does this 100k-150k core books figure come from? Is this for 1E, 2E, 3E, 3.5E, or 4E?

 

[Echohawk]

Echohawk, you are my new nerd hero! (nerdro?) Those charts are awesome. A question: the vertical axis is total number of products produced within a calendar year, right? Does that include everything D&D related, such as novels? I just have a hard time believing that TSR produced almost 80 products in 1995 (!).

Heh heh. Yes, they did indeed churn out 77 products without including any of that year's novels.

[sblock]
1995 D&D releases
1. The Moonsea
2. Dungeon Master's Survival Kit
3. Player's Survivial Kit
4. Planes of Law
5. The Complete Barbarian's Handbook
6. Cutthroats of Lankhmar
7. Fires of Dis
8. When Black Roses Bloom
9. Encyclopedia Magica, Volume II
10. Dark Sun Monstrous Compendium Appendix II: Terrors Beyond Tyr
11. Elminster's Ecologies Appendix I: The Battle of Bones & Hill of Lost Souls
12. Ruins of Zhentil Keep
13. The Dancing Hut of Baba Yaga
14. Glantri: Kingdom of Magic
15. Thri-Kreen of Athas
16. The Complete Book of Necromancers
17. Van Richten's Guide to Fiends
18. Player's Primer to the Outlands
19. Red Steel Savage Baronies
20. The Seven Sisters
21. The Sword of the Dales
22. Circle of Darkness
23. A Light in the Belfry
24. Encyclopedia Magica, Volume III
25. In the Cage: A Guide to Sigil
26. Beyond the Prism Pentad
27. Castle Sites
28. Spellbound
29. Thief's Challenge II: Beacon Point
30. Chilling Tales
31. Mark of Amber
32. History of Dragonlance
33. Player's Option: Combat & Tactics
34. The Factol's Manifesto
35. Player's Secrets of Roesone
36. Van Richten's Guide to the Vistani
37. The Secret of Spiderhaunt
38. Labyrinth of Madness
39. Harbinger House
40. Birthright Campaign Setting
41. Player's Option: Skills & Powers
42. Volo's Guide to Cormyr
43. Blood Enemies: Abominations of Cerilia
44. Player's Secrets of Endier
45. Player's Secrets of Medoere
46. Chronomancer
47. Sword and Crown
48. Avengers in Lankhmar
49. The Evil Eye
50. Dungeon Master Option Rulebook: High-Level Campaigns
51. Giantcraft
52. The Complete Ninja's Handbook
53. Player's Secrets of Tuornen
54. Elminster's Ecologies Appendix II: The High Moor & The Serpent Hills
55. The Return of Randal Morn
56. Planescape Monstrous Compendium Appendix II
57. Player's Secrets of Ilien
58. Country Sites
59. Dungeon Master Screen & Master Index
60. The Nightmare Lands
61. Dark Sun Campaign Setting Expanded and Revised
62. Pages from the Mages
63. Player's Secrets of Talinie
64. Shaman
65. The Gothic Earth Gazetteer: A Masque of the Red Death Accessory
66. Planes of Conflict
67. Night Below: An Underdark Campaign
68. Encyclopedia Magica, Volume IV
69. Wizards and Rogues of the Realms
70. Joshuan's Almanac & Book of Facts
71. Player's Secrets of Ariya
72. Cities of the Sun
73. Warlock of the Stonecrowns
74. Cleric's Challenge II
75. Neither Man Nor Beast
76. Windriders of the Jagged Cliffs
77. Monstrous Compendium Annual Volume Two
[/sblock]
Including novels set in D&D worlds pushes the output for 1995 up to nearly 120 products. Here's another graph with the novels included. I knew someone was going to ask about novels...

Note that I've only counted the first printing of a novel, not later paperback reprints of hardcover releases, gift sets or other collections. Reprints of older novels have made up a large chunk of WotC's total novel output in the last few years, so including the reprints would bulk up the latter portion of the novel graph a bit. I have also included the Endless Quest and AD&D Adventure Gamebooks as novels, in case anyone was wondering about those.

 

[AllisterH]

Echohawk, you are my new nerd hero! (nerdro?) Those charts are awesome. A question: the vertical axis is total number of products produced within a calendar year, right? Does that include everything D&D related, such as novels? I just have a hard time believing that TSR produced almost 80 products in 1995 (!).

.

I can believe that. Using Echohawk's product listing,

Taking a look at the 1st month of 1995, TSR produced.
Dungeon Master's Survival Kit (for Mystara)
Planes of Law (for Planescape)
Player's Survival Kit (Mystara)
The Barbarian's Handbook (Generic supplement)
The Moonsea (for forgotten Realms)

throw in an Endless Quest product (American Knights) and a novel for Dragonlance (The Kagonesti) and yeah, I can see 80 products easily

 

[AllisterH]

Heh heh. Yes, they did indeed churn out 77 products without including any of that year's novels.

[sblock]
1995 D&D releases
1. The Moonsea
2. Dungeon Master's Survival Kit
3. Player's Survivial Kit
4. Planes of Law
5. The Complete Barbarian's Handbook
6. Cutthroats of Lankhmar
7. Fires of Dis
8. When Black Roses Bloom
9. Encyclopedia Magica, Volume II
10. Dark Sun Monstrous Compendium Appendix II: Terrors Beyond Tyr
11. Elminster's Ecologies Appendix I: The Battle of Bones & Hill of Lost Souls
12. Ruins of Zhentil Keep
13. The Dancing Hut of Baba Yaga
14. Glantri: Kingdom of Magic
15. Thri-Kreen of Athas
16. The Complete Book of Necromancers
17. Van Richten's Guide to Fiends
18. Player's Primer to the Outlands
19. Red Steel Savage Baronies
20. The Seven Sisters
21. The Sword of the Dales
22. Circle of Darkness
23. A Light in the Belfry
24. Encyclopedia Magica, Volume III
25. In the Cage: A Guide to Sigil
26. Beyond the Prism Pentad
27. Castle Sites
28. Spellbound
29. Thief's Challenge II: Beacon Point
30. Chilling Tales
31. Mark of Amber
32. History of Dragonlance
33. Player's Option: Combat & Tactics
34. The Factol's Manifesto
35. Player's Secrets of Roesone
36. Van Richten's Guide to the Vistani
37. The Secret of Spiderhaunt
38. Labyrinth of Madness
39. Harbinger House
40. Birthright Campaign Setting
41. Player's Option: Skills & Powers
42. Volo's Guide to Cormyr
43. Blood Enemies: Abominations of Cerilia
44. Player's Secrets of Endier
45. Player's Secrets of Medoere
46. Chronomancer
47. Sword and Crown
48. Avengers in Lankhmar
49. The Evil Eye
50. Dungeon Master Option Rulebook: High-Level Campaigns
51. Giantcraft
52. The Complete Ninja's Handbook
53. Player's Secrets of Tuornen
54. Elminster's Ecologies Appendix II: The High Moor & The Serpent Hills
55. The Return of Randal Morn
56. Planescape Monstrous Compendium Appendix II
57. Player's Secrets of Ilien
58. Country Sites
59. Dungeon Master Screen & Master Index
60. The Nightmare Lands
61. Dark Sun Campaign Setting Expanded and Revised
62. Pages from the Mages
63. Player's Secrets of Talinie
64. Shaman
65. The Gothic Earth Gazetteer: A Masque of the Red Death Accessory
66. Planes of Conflict
67. Night Below: An Underdark Campaign
68. Encyclopedia Magica, Volume IV
69. Wizards and Rogues of the Realms
70. Joshuan's Almanac & Book of Facts
71. Player's Secrets of Ariya
72. Cities of the Sun
73. Warlock of the Stonecrowns
74. Cleric's Challenge II
75. Neither Man Nor Beast
76. Windriders of the Jagged Cliffs
77. Monstrous Compendium Annual Volume Two
[/sblock]
Including novels set in D&D worlds pushes the output for 1995 up to nearly 120 products. Here's another graph with the novels included. I knew someone was going to ask about novels...

Note that I've only counted the first printing of a novel, not later paperback reprints of hardcover releases, gift sets or other collections. Reprints of older novels have made up a large chunk of WotC's total novel output in the last few years, so including the reprints would bulk up the latter portion of the novel graph a bit. I have also included the Endless Quest and AD&D Adventure Gamebooks as novels, in case anyone was wondering about those.

Thanks Echohawk.

It's always good to have actual proof since I've seen lately many a comment that WOTC was producing way too many products but if anything, WOTC is way underproducing stuff compared to TSR.

Is it just nostalgia that makes people forget how much stuff TSR used to produce?

 

[Banshee16]

In my recent search to fill in my RPG collection from the last five years of 3.5 products that I missed, I have been struck by the sheer number of Wizards of the Coast hardcover books that were published. I mean, there's got to be close to a hundred, if we include campaign settings and uber-adventures, maybe more (does anyone know off hand?). It got me thinking: Let's say Wizards didn't "reboot" Dungeons & Dragons with 4E...what could they have done? Or to be more specific, what could they have possibly published and continued making money? Profitability is key as I'm sure we can all come up with books we would have liked to see, but most of our ideas are probably rather particular and wouldn't have made WotC enough to even bother in the first place.

My question boils down to this: If WotC had not come out with 4E, what should they have done? What could they have done without spiraling down and eventually out of business (at least with D&D), as had basically happened with TSR in the late '90s with the glut of 2E? Would it have been at all possible to continue with 3.5E indefinitely, while still making enough profit not to greatly downsize the company? Or could it be that 4E was absolutely necessary for the survival of the Dungeons & Dragons brand of Wizards of the Coast?

It is my opinion that the question of whether or not WotC should have come out with 4E is a moot point: they had to. There is only so much that can be published within an "edition cycle" without getting extremely obscure. As it was WotC was getting rather obscure in the last few years (although with seemingly some real gems coming out because all the basics were covered). At a certain point WotC had to come out with 4E, just as they will eventually have to come out with 5E.

Now 3.5E fans could argue that a less drastic revision would have sufficed, that they agree with this logic of "publish or perish" but feel that 4E could have been more of a 3.7E that cleared up all the problems with 3.5E (what some feel Pathfinder should have been, but evidently isn't). But instead WotC created an entirely new iteration of the game, far enough from the previous one to make conversion difficult enough to make buying new books a necessity of one wanted to keep pace with the game (from a business perspective, that's the point, right?).

So my question is primarily directed at 3.5E fans who would have preferred if WotC had updated 3.5E, rather than reboot: What should and could they have done (and still remained profitable)?

I just can't see any way around the necessity of a full reboot. I am not sure what the "proper timing" is, but evidently WotC thought that 2008 wasn't too soon, only eight years after 3E. Could they have waited another couple years? Possibly, but I don't know enough about business to hold to a firm opinion.

I don't know whether or not the size of the D&D division got larger after 3E came out in 2000, but one would assume so; but it may be that the success of 3/3.5E brought about its demise quicker than if it had been less successful. Meaning, because it was so successful WotC churned out all those dozens of hardcovers, thereby "burning through" the edition cycle more quickly than if they had been less successful. Looking at my bookshelf I have 13 4E hardcovers; I know that there are 5 books that I haven't purchased (the two Players Guides, Adventurers Vault 2, Arcane and Divine Power), which makes 18 hardcovers in about 14 months. That seems to be a similar pace as 3.5E was, although again, I haven't done the research to be sure (feel free, someone).

As for 5E, speculating is virtually impossible, but I'll conclude with a couple thoughts. If 1E came out in 1977, 2E in 1989, 3E in 2000, and 4E in 2008, we've seen gaps of 12, 11, and 8 years between editions, which would leave us to believe that 5E will be out no late than 2015, if not sooner (as the number of years between editions has always decreased). But given the economic volatility of the last few years, who knows where we will be in 2015? What the state of the RPG industry will be?

Well, speaking as someone who didn' follow to th new edition after playing for the last 20 years, I know what I wanted, and never got out of third ed.

1-More settings. They easily could have added more setting or "theme" books. They implied that with Oriental Adventure and Heroes of Horror. There were two books addressing particular play styles. More books like that, each with an implied setting like in OA, could have been cool. They could have done a Swashbuckling book, for instance, and used it with a default swashbuckling type setting like Red Steel. They could have done a book on higher level play, kingdom rulership, etc. With the rules flexible enough to be used with any setting, but a default setting of Birthright.

2-More of the "monster"-nomicon style books. We never did get one on the legions of Hades (yugoloths), or Limbo (slaad), and they *totally* could have done one on the gith races. And, they kept hinting about resurgent fey, and in the waning years of 3E I hoped that was a hint that they would do one on Fey. Of course, in hindsight, I suppose that was hinting at the Eladrin of 4E, but I'd have loved a book on the Faerie......the dark, beautiful, yet inhuman ones of myth, to frighten children, rather than pixies. With a player Sidhe race, maybe. The Eladrin of 4E don't cut it for me.

Banshee