This pretty much sums it up for my experience. I still enjoy playing 4E for 1-shot games at cons and such, but so far none of my local group are willing to dive into it for campaign play after our test run of it (which is largely due to the 'meh' feeling from the first few WOTC modules we ran. I absolutely love Paizo's stuff and use a lot of it for my Castles & Crusades game.
Are modules that important to you and your group? Your statement that modules make or break a system for you seems extreme.
I have posted a poll about module use, would you mind posting a response on that thread also? http://www.enworld.org/forum/genera...at-precentage-they-make-up-your-campaign.html
I can't see how modules would be deciding factor on using a system or not. If it was for me, I would never have played 1e or 2e AD&D.