Tabletopocalypse Now - GMS' thoughts about the decline in the hobby

[Mercurius]

One thing that hasn't changed in 10 years is GMS's snarkiness . I know, Ghostwind, but does he have to insult everyone who disagrees with him? Jeez.

That said, it was an interesting read but I think he's making some premature conclusions and ignoring some of the more salient posts by the "non-pro" responses that he ignored. I question the collapse of the tabletop RPG market in 5-10 years (or sooner, he says). As some have said here and in that thread, he doesn't say anything about internet sales nor does he mention the fact that there are a lot more RPGs available now than 10-20 years ago. Both factors greatly dilute game store sales and top five lists.

Overall I think he is probably right in terms of general decline from the past through today and into the future, but that it won't as much be a collapse as a slow decline, one that started 20-25 years ago with a few peaks and troughs. There will probably be further peaks and troughs, but the overall trend will continue. At some point, maybe 20-30 years from now, tabletop RPGs will be so fringe that virtually no one plays them anymore.

We can also look at this from a generational perspective. As I see it, Gen X is the primary RPG Generation, with Gen Y second and the Boomers a distant third. As the years pass a good portion of Gen Y will convert (and have already converted) to computer games; the much small Boomers will die off. Those among Gen X that left the hobby probably aren't coming back if they didn't with 3E or 4E. Sure, Essentials--and the Red Box in particular--might re-gather a few of the flock, but chances are that if you are diehard enough to play D&D in your 30s, 40s and 50s, you probably already play D&D and never really stopped.

The big question is whether the next generation, "Gen Z" and younger Gen Yers (say, anyone born after 1990 or so) can capture the RPG bug. Call me a pessimist, but I think the numbers will be very small and not enough to make up for the dwindling older generations. But again, this will mean a long and slow decline rather than an outright collapse.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

For the first decade or so of the hobby, when it grew the fastest, there weren't any!

There weren't many, to be sure, but they were out there. Its just that for many of the stores, RPGs were not their initial core business. Then again, since they predated the hobby, they couldn't be. Most of them sold comics, sci-fi/fantasy books, wargames and the like.

To say otherwise would be like saying there weren't any specialty stores pre- M:tG.

I mean, the specialty stores I hit in Denver, KC and Topeka in the late 1970s and early 1980s were definitely established businesses long before Gygax's game went to the printers.

 

[Stormonu]

Unfortunately, living in the south US, it's hard to get a grip on how gaming is faring; gamers tend to hold their cards pretty tight to their chest down here.

Overall, the article tends to strike me as "The sky is falling and I won't accept any other evidence otherwise." Instead, I gather (from my playing group and other gaming groups I keep in touch with) that the RPG industry is limping along, spread out over multiple editions and genres of games.

For my own experiences, I've met/played with a steady stream of gamers since the '80s, and as soon as I lose a player or two, it seems I've got a replacement waiting in the wings. Not much for growth, but steady it seems. I have been noticing lately that a lot of my gamer friends have "moved on to" or come from games other than D&D, something I hadn't seen since White Wolf first came out with their game line.

 

[Umbran]

There weren't many, to be sure, but they were out there.

The idea that specialty stores are important to RPGs are based on two things: sales, and a place to play.

Sales? Today these can happen quite handily online. Specialty brick and mortar simply isn't necessary any more.

A place to play? Well, consider that for a minute. We supposedly had millions of players in the 1980s, right? If play in the specialty stores was supposedly important for all those, then lots and lots of us should be claiming that specialty stores were a big part of our play in the 1980s, right?

Well, do we see that happening? Why is the iconic play in the parent's basement, and not the specialty store? How many of us really found our fellow players through specialty stores?

 

[JRRNeiklot]

Every single producer of every rpg could close their doors today and the hobby would continue. The industry may someday die, but the hobby is immortal. Books may decay and rot, but they'll be taped together, scanned, or copied with a pencil. I remember coying the entirety of the ranger class by hand in 1e because we had 6 players and 2 phbs. The state of the hobby is strong.

 

[prosfilaes]

Every single producer of every rpg could close their doors today and the hobby would continue. The industry may someday die, but the hobby is immortal. Books may decay and rot, but they'll be taped together, scanned, or copied with a pencil.

That doesn't really make sense. Books are easy to print in the modern world, and PDFs even easier. If there were no RPG books being printed, it would be because nobody found it worthwhile to make something available through print-on-demand; given the ready availability of gaming systems and POD, that means there's less than a dozen players.

Hobbies come and hobbies go, and there are many that are lucky to have a few reenactors play around with them every so often. I don't see RPGs disappearing any time soon, but I don't find it inconcievable that in 50 years, it's something only old folk play (like Bridge is) and 50 years after that merely a chapter in books about games.

 

[JRRNeiklot]

I'd venture there are more people playing Bridge than there are rpgs. Regardless, word of mouth is how the hobby got started, not fancy product on the shelves. It will continue that way if the industry goes belly up. I'm not suggesting it's in any danger of doing that anytime soon, but the dirty little secret is that the hobby doesn't need the industry. It never did.

 

[Lanefan]

We can also look at this from a generational perspective. As I see it, Gen X is the primary RPG Generation, with Gen Y second and the Boomers a distant third. As the years pass a good portion of Gen Y will convert (and have already converted) to computer games; the much small Boomers will die off. Those among Gen X that left the hobby probably aren't coming back if they didn't with 3E or 4E. Sure, Essentials--and the Red Box in particular--might re-gather a few of the flock, but chances are that if you are diehard enough to play D&D in your 30s, 40s and 50s, you probably already play D&D and never really stopped.

Here's a thought:

The glory days of D+D were in the late 70's-early '80's - right when the Gen-Xers were in school-college and had lots of time.

What do you want to be there'll be another round of glory once those same people again have lots of time - when they retire, about 10-20 years from now.

Lan-"looking forward to the '20's already"-efan

 

[Umbran]

Every single producer of every rpg could close their doors today and the hobby would continue. The industry may someday die, but the hobby is immortal.

I'm not convinced that is true.

The data exists out and about to play games so long as someone can read English, yes. But RPGs are social games - they need a body of players to play. If you cannot scrape together enough people who want to play, you don't have a game, and the hobby, as far as you are concerned, is dead. If nobody can scrape together people to play the hobby as a whole is dead.

Gamers are like a species of animals - somewhat rare ones. It is possible that we get isolated into smaller and smaller pockets, until such time as we become extinct. I don't think this is likely any time soon, but I don't think one can reasonably deny the very possibility. No particular element of human culture is "immortal". Even something as broadly used as a language can, eventually, die.

On the other side, every single person who says, "The hobby is shrinking! Doom is coming!" seems to ignore one notable fact - eternal growth is not feasible. So, our hobby, or any hobby, has times when it grows and times when it shrinks. Things come and go and come back again.

So, how do you tell the difference between normal ebb and flow, which is transient, from the decline into death?

 

[Mercurius]

Here's a thought:

The glory days of D+D were in the late 70's-early '80's - right when the Gen-Xers were in school-college and had lots of time.

What do you want to be there'll be another round of glory once those same people again have lots of time - when they retire, about 10-20 years from now.

Lan-"looking forward to the '20's already"-efan

I think we already saw this over the last ten years, with people settling down with a stable job, family, etc, and being able to carve out some kind of "poker night." That is pretty much the story with my group; the group I played in during the early 2000s was single guys in their late 20s with no established careers; the group I play in now, eight years later, is married guys in their mid-30s to early-40s with stable jobs, families, and not a lot of free time but enough to support a twice-monthly game.

But maybe you are right, that there will be another wave in 10-20 years, I don't know. I think these things happen in cycles, or waves:

• The Founding Years, or Golden Age: The first wave in the mid-to-late 70s that established the core of hardcore players, mainly Boomers now in their 50s and 60s. This was a small but dedicated group. Some probably went back to wargames, some are dying off, some still play on.
• The "D&D Boom": The second wave that came in during the early-to-mid 80s and numbered in the tens of millions, most of whom dwindled away in the late 80s to early 90s as they graduated high school and "grew up."
• The Rise of Vampire and Indie Gaming: The third wave that came in during the early 90s with Vampire, mainly younger Gen Xers and later Gen Yers, or Millenials.
• The 3E/OGL Revival: After the "Dark Years" of the late 90s, D&D experienced a resurgence with 3E with some of the D&D Boomers returning, some of the Indie crowd converting, and a new generation of younger gamers coming in, the Millenials.
• Red Box/Essentials? I don't think 4E brought in a new wave of gamers, which is one of the reasons WotC came out with the Essentials line - trying to create a fifth wave. It remains to be seen if this works or not.

p.s. As an almost 37-year old private high school teacher (thus very low salary and with a five-figure college debt) I am certainly not 10-20 years away from retiring! LOL.