It depends on what you expect or want out of the RPG, both in terms of profits and durability. The problem is that many want RPG's to be and remain highly profitable (we'll call this STATE 1), but at the same time highly static (we'll call this STATE 2). I like to refer to the world of books in this, but some could refer to the world of games...particularly that of boardgames.
This will be long...skip if you want to.
Both of these (and indeed the forces of the market) work in similar ways. When you release something new, as long as there is adequete desire on the part of a consumer, it will sell far more than it will later on.
As an example, let's take a book. It is anticipated and then released. It sells ten thousand copies. This is definately not a best seller, but it's enough to turn a profit. If the author was not simply paid a lump advance sum, they may get a cut from the profits. Let's say the book goes for $30 retail. In that, the publisher made $10 off the initial sale, the distributor makes another $10, and the retailer makes another $10 (of course it would be less once shipping and storage costs are factored in for all involved, this is just keeping it simple for math). The writer is at a 10% from the PUBLISHER, and from their price, not the retail price. They should make 10,000 USD. The publisher makes 100,000 USD, but after costs of manufactor, paying employees, typesetting, etc., we actually only make a mere 50,000 USD. Then, we printed off more books than we should have and have to buy back from some retailers...and burn another 25K for a grand total of 25,000 off the initial run.
We still have it set up to print if we want to. We could use the space to print a nifty NEW book that we hope will sell 30,000 copies...but do we want to? By watching the trends the sales will probably decrease by at LEAST 50%, or so we expect. This is usual, though percentages of decreases can be much greater. So next year we will only sell 5,000 books. WE can plan for that. 5,000 books will bring in 50,000 so hopefully we can have a slightly larger profit from it. The year after that it will decrease even further, let's say we would only be able to sell 1000 books.
You can see the trend.
The break even point is where the book sales stagnate to a balance. In otherwords, where the book sales stop decreasing overall, and maintain a balance. This could be temporary, such as in two or three years...or over the course of 5 years...if one is really luck, over the course of 10 years.
We also have to evaluate the risk. We KNOW that we'll probably not break 50,000 USD profit off the book next year. We have another book we believe could sell 30,000 copies. It won't be a best seller either, but possibly could bring in 300,000 USD as opposed to 50,000 USD.
We decide to stop publication on the first book when it reaches the 1000 copy mark. We feel it will continue to decrease in sales and will not reach a point where it achieves balance (we produce the same amount each year) that is profitable to keep the space up in the press room for it. Instead we use the space to print off the 30,000 copy seller. The first book is now out of print.
We'll call the above, option A.
Another possibility is that we get a breakthrough. The book is a best seller. We sell 10 million copies. We get 100 Million dollars. We have very little to back burn, as we didn't print enough copies to begin with. The author is happy. They get 10 Million dollars at 10% of our profit. The author must learn what an accountant is next year before the govt. demands their part. His grief has also increase...
This book is a flash in the pan. It is fad. The fad is just starting. We will sell 15 million next year.
Then the fad dies, we only sell 5 million the year after that. This is STILL outselling everything else we print.
It sells one million copies the next year. After that only 100,000 copies. The fad is dying out.
Eventually, after 10 years sales could dwindle to the place of the first book in Option A...only 1000 copies. This was a good fad, we made millions, the author made millions, the retailers made millions. We are all happy, even the author. The author now has their privacy back after the fad died (hopefully).
With a fad, we know the books are going to sell extremely well, and then die. What we want to do is make the most money out of this, but what can we do? We'll discuss this below.
We'll call the FAD Option B.
Once again, going back to, the book is a bestseller. It sells 10 million copies. It is sort of a fad. It's sales will decrease next year. It creates a HARDCORE set of followers. They will buy these books again and again. These will only guarantee 50,000 sales each year. This is still more books than Option A, even in it's initial year of sales. When it decreases to 50,000 sales each year it's reached a steady state of sales. We are unsure how long this will remain, but we expect it should last at least 5 years.
This is Option C.
We want more MONEY. The best money comes from Fads gone wild. We LIKE Fads. We WANT Fads. The key is to MAKE FADS. The best is to make a FAD out of Option A. Then we increase the sales far more than ever expected, and have it as an Option B or Option C.
If the book is Option B, the idea is to CONTINUE the fad.
If it is Option C. the idea is to REIGNITE the FAD.
How can we do this? As I said with Option A, it is to create a FAD. This is to make consumers THINK they NEED the book. We can do this by advertising, or a viral campaign, or somehow linking it to an existing movie or current trend.
With Option B, it is already a FAD. We simply need to continue it. The easiest way is to keep writing books. This will extend the Fad. It could keep it up indefinately, but more likely will only extend it for a few years longer.
With Option C, there are two options. We can increase the amount we sale, or we can create a new FAD with it. With increasing our sales, the easiest way is to do the same as Option B. This is to continue writing books. At some point, Option B COULD become Option C with this idea. The books keep that hardcore audience buying, hence guaranteeing more money from that specific audience.
If they are 50,000 and we keep selling, we release 20 books a year (that's a stretch, probably more like 3 to 4 if we are lucky) and make one million USD off of them. That keeps that money at a standard that we are happy with. That would mean that we make it into a series book. Series books are what you commonly see with things like books off of TV series, or with kids books, those like Nancy Drew, Hardy Boys, etc. We'll call this Option D. Option D. only happens after Option C or Option B in a typical fashion.
The other option is to create tie-ins, or a NEW FAD. This could be the same as we do with Option A. It's FAR easier with Option C or Option D. We get some property that was a FAD, sell it to a movie or TV company...or convince the author to, and we hope the movie is big enough to make a LOT more money.
It's a hit, the book reinvigorates in sales, and we sale One Million copies. AS long as the second Fad continues, we sale more books. We can make more money by connecting it to a toy line, to a game line, etc.
Eventually, the law is that the sales will decrease, even with a self generated FAD.
Examples of book and series that continue to sell well even after years would be Lord of the Rings (at first additional books that don't stop the original's from being printed), the original Star Wars Trilogy book (self explanatory of the fads and the hardcore audience as in Option C...though in this case the MOVIES are the heart of the matter...we are talking books though). We'll call this final option, Option E...as in Excellent.
It gives us the most money overall...and can keep it going for many more years as long as we keep hitting the right fads and the right buttons.
Option C can continue for a LONG time as well. Examples of this would be Hardy Boy Books, Hitchhiker Guide books, etc. In this there isn't really any fad, but the sales are steady enough to validate continue printing or keeping them in stock. Option C has another idea and this is what the thread addresses.
We can rewrite series and re-release them with a new core background. This has happened to the Hardy Boys listed above. One could say the Hardy Boys can get outdated. The original books were certainly outdated. They had racism and other items that got out molded. In the mid 20th century, they did a rewrite of all the original books. The idea was not to stray too far from the originals, but rewrite them so that the material that no longer applied to modern day audiences could be written out, and the good stuff kept in. This was a BIG SUCCESS. It kept the hardcore audience, and brought in new blood.
Remember the first paragraph...where I talked about Option 1 and Option 2 (yes, I know...too many options, your head hurts...). This keeps a good balance between keeping the books profitable...but the audience happy with the stability of the story. In otherwords, the books make money and the story doesn't change.
This was tried again with the Hardy boys, and was a success. This next reboot did not really generate a big enough hardcore audience. In the 80s, a new series was written to update the Hardy Boys again. It was popular, and had many copycats in other series books. It was NOT as long lasting as the Second rewrite from the Mid 20th century. It was more an Option B instead of an Option C. It was profitable, it had stability, but not quite as much stability as expected. The second rewrite has better sells today than the third rewrite. The originals are no longer available.
This happened again several times. There was once or twice this killed the series. This was bad. Whatever you do, you DO NOT WANT to lose your sales. Upsetting the core audience means that you LOSE the ability to make money off of them. We cannot (for lack of a better word) exploit that avenue to it's fullest extent if they don't like what we are trying to create.
When a mistake is made like this, and you upset your key audience and lose the sales there are some avenues you can take. You can stop publication completely. You are not making any money, it is stupid to continue to lose money.
You can attempt to regain the audience. In otherwords, print the OLDER series that they liked. Hopefully they have enough nostalgia that they will buy.
You can risk even MORE money, and do another reboot or rewrite. This is the most risky, most of the time fails, and so is normally avoided. If the book was BIG enough and popular enough, but the drop off in sales was dramatic enough, there is a BETTER possibility this could work. Fairy tales are always good to try this approach with. A new approach to an old story can sometimes create a fad in and of itself. A rewrite of a children's story to be simpler...can occasionally be successful.
How does this relate to RPG's? (and you thought this was long already...with Option 1 and 2, A, B, C, D, and Excellent).
This is MY TAKE on how the book sales apply to D&D. This lifecycle is applicable to almost all books, inclusive of D&D and Textbooks (though you could say College professors create their OWN hardcore audience...textbooks also go in and out of favor with professors, schools, and teachers who do not write their own).
Gygax was a BRILLIANT in this arena. I think he had some problems elsewhere in understanding corporate maneuvering and corporate politicians (and which I think ultimately got him out of TSR), but as far as marketing, he made all the right moves.
From the start, he created a new item. It was a small fad (not really what would be called a FAD) for his time. It was a fad in a niche group. It sold well for what he and the others expected. They built on it, and made more. He then wanted to build upon that base. He had OD&D at the time...and had added the Greyhawk Options. Instead of really building up OD&D under chainmail rules, he decided to go with the GreyHawk options, and with Greyhawk rules, create a new game line. This was AD&D. Around this reprint, and the subsequent press (for good and bad) he created a FAD (Option A) around this small selling series.
By the early 80's (83-84) there wasn't a young person that hadn't heard and most times played AD&D. At the same time, he continued the sales of the original game (OD&D). This game (OD&D) profited from AD&D's success. It was not as well known or played, but it made money. AD&D was the fad, OD&D was the original. OD&D had changed to be more in line with how AD&D worked. It profited from this change much like the Hardy Boys profited. However, something odd had happened. With AD&D as the fad, it became the more noticeable and more profitable line. It became the mainline instead of OD&D (but this was planned already from when AD&D first came out).
Gygax built this line into all sorts of things...from a TV series, to toys, to clothes. By the Mid 80s book sales probably were declining, but the Brand was at an all time high. You had music groups that had items that could be tied to RPGs, copycats galor, etc.
This was a GOOD FAD for D&D. The FAD was being perpetuated in new and different ways. Then Gygax left. I'm not tying his departure from TSR to the death of the FAD, it probably was already on the down hill slope, but after he left, the FAD pretty much died completely.
So, how do you continue? I'd say AD&D...and thence to a smaller degree D&D were Option C at this point. They started with Option A, then AD&D became Option B then an Option E and finally translated more to an Option C.
What do you do with Option C's...why make it a FAD! Except in this case they went with Option D...let's do a rewrite and/or tie in! Except the tie-in's for TSR weren't all that good of a chioce in the first place. Buck Rogers...quilting...collectible Dice...none of these really were great Fads to tie into for TSR or the D&D name. They tried creating their own FADS...but they didn't have another Dragonlance...instead they had Dark Sun (and it was a good thing...these other campaign settings are remembered fondly), Spelljammer, and other such items. The computer game tie-ins and the book publishing was great, and maybe created mini Option D's where you create a new FAD. Overall it was more of an Option C for the next decade. But with Option C, many times it's a hardcore base you sell too, but that base can eventually shrink (normally does).
So you have it at a publication choice as with Option A eventually. Do I keep printing this, or do I stop printing it and release something new. Of course Option 7 was taken for TSR...bankruptcy or sell. WotC buys it and they opt to go for an Option D (rewrite) as well as an attempt at Option E (anyone else remember the D&D movie?). I personally at that time may have wanted them to try option E in tying it into Magic or more likely Pokemon (though that probably would have been only a VERY short time of popularity and then completely kill D&D). They managed Option D extremely well, and sales shot up. They rebranded it from AD&D to D&D, ensured the Original line called D&D was dead...built up everything and created a NEW FAD. Awesome job!!!!
3e was a rip roaring success. It was not as popular as it was in the 80s (option B...but Option B's are a hard thing to follow any day of the week...normally Option B's are a surprise and not created). It was a great FAD however...and resurrected what could have been a dead brand.
In otherwords, 3e is how to perfectly do an Option D. It wasn't a good example of Option E.
However, sales will always die off from a FAD (that's the rule). They can try to do an Option C...but they believed they had milked that cow to the point where returns were not as good as investment. The question that comes up to the execs is what to do with the brand.
However, there are OTHER ways to do option C. You don't just have to come out with more RPG books, you need to find otherways to exploit the hardcore buyers...and sticking simply with items like RPG supplements, minis, and other old ideas that have already been used shouldn't be the solution. You need to use imagination and ingenuity to keep Option C alive. I find gaming products are an excellent choice. You need a GOOD deal with somebody in order to pull it off, and be PROLIFIC (aka...more than one game a year...you want something like 5 games a year at least...if you can sell 20...then 20 games a year). Create more magazines if you can (centering around the hardcore idea...and have a cut into those magazines). Make sure it's something hardcore fans cannot do without. Do surveys of what gamers want, and what the public wants...generate items to sale those as well.
The idea is that they can try Option D again. I personally prefer Option E (remember...excellent) as it retains more of the original audience...and has a tie in...but you have to choose the RIGHT tie in to be successful. I'd go with Gygax's original idea of more game lines, a TV series, and popular culture (music lovers also out and out brandishing D&D stuff)...and some press...good or bad but in LARGE amounts should generate some interest.
So Option D it was instead...and where it goes from there who knows.
What D&D really needs is NEW blood...and by new blood is that they need a NEW Option B...or an OPTION E. Something to generate it in a MASSIVE way. JK Rowlings Big (though that fad is slowly dying off now...it's still relavant).
Once again, this has been long...and you are probably tired of reading. So where to from here. I will address the final item, boardgames.
I find books more relavent, as books are the market D&D falls under...HOWEVER...as many would point out, D&D is a game. D&D has it's roots in Boardgames...(under the pretense of Wargames being part of the boardgaming community).
Boardgames are an interesting group. Popular boardgames have remained basically unchanged in concept for decades (Monopoly) or centuries (Chess). They are the epitome of Option C. You don't sell a single game and hope to remain so profitable as to keep up with a Modern day FAD. However there are ways to make a living for a small group of people off a single boardgame (not typical, but it happens). Normally this is done by making extravagent sets of boardgames (like chess sets that are handcarved and set with semi-precious stones as a jeweler...then selling them for $399 a piece).
Popular boardgames are relatively simple (with rules only filling a couple pages worth or even less). These games are typically stable, at a constant selling rate overall. They are profitable, with the key to publish them in massive amounts to cut down publication costs, and then selling them.
Hasbro is the king of this market. D&D could become part of this market. The problem is D&D is so exploitable to the FADS market and FADS make so much MORE money than a simple Option C of the mass boardgame market. Why sell 30,000 copies a year for a profit of 30,000 USD when you can sell a couple hundred thousand copies for several million?
Of course there are ways to exploit them...so you sell a couple hundred thousand copies in a year instead...such as make different versions, or different forms of the game. It's stil the same game at it's root, and may still only have one person handling it.
A boardgame may only have one manager...and at Hasbro that manager may have many different boardgames or brands under them. That boardgame does not get as much attention as D&D. Fans may be unhappy with only one person working on "their" game, and that person is only part time as they have other things they must devote their time in as well. D&D doesn't fall into the typical grouping of a mass market boardgame anyways...as it's not simple enough.
D&D would fall more into the niche boardgame grouping that Wargames and other types of games (commonly called Eurogames, and/or Strategy games) fall in. Hasbro is normally NOT in the arena of Niche games. It occasionally dips in for a sale or two, but as a rule...mass boardgames are easier to sell in bulk, and easier to handle.
Axis and Allies is a Hasbro brand...and only almost somewhat successful (in Hasbro terms). It's easier to dip in for a quick sale in the niche arena, and then dip out again.
Fantasy Flight Games is the KING of the niche boardgame market (or I would say they are). Rio Grande Games is also very good at this market...but I think handles it more like Hasbro would with one person handling several games at a time. Rules can be extensive, and much more complex than anything that is typically sold on the mass market or popular markets. Games can have a LOT more pieces than typically found in a mass market game.
FFG, or Fantasy Flight Games has the way to make money off of it all, with frequent tie-ins to movies, books, and ideas that are trying for an Option E approach (Lord of the Rings, Battle Star Galactica, World of Warcraft, Starcraft), etc.
Rio Grande Games is also good, but more in the lines of an Option A and Option C approach where they bring over a popular game from Europe, which sells well..and then they see how well it will continue afterwards.
Print runs on these games typically will be between 3,000 to 5,000 copies. They can be higher with 10,000 to 15,000 print runs...but that's a good seller for the niche market in first runs. If they sell well then there will be reprints. 3000-5000 copies can be standard for a niche market...it is NOT the quantities that WotC or Hasbro probably want to be involved with.
And hence comes in the D&D dilemma. In design it would qualify more for a NICHE market game (too many rules, too complex). It's past history can qualify it for a Mass Market approach instead. One is more satisfactory to the Option 1 (yes, going back to the very beginning) while the other would satisfy Option 2. Or they can keep trying for that balance they currently have where they perpetually try to generate a FAD (Option D).
Mass Market would be Option C, Niche probably would be more of an Option D anyways, but with less sales...or they can continue with a cross between Option D and C like they do currently.
Fantasy Flight games typically seem to do Option B...a Big fad followed with eventually taking something out of print...BUT, they do refresh old franchises (Twilight Imperium 3e, Runebound 2e) and some of those have been in print for a while, indicating more of a steady sales approach with some of their games. Overall, in the market of games, they are new and it remains to be seen what their standard approach will be.
The BEST Option in my book for D&D would be somehow to pull off Option E. Some of the ideas with the Red Box, the D&D comic seem to be attempts to drill into the same audience or a similar audience that would by D&D. Option E would drill into audiences that are currently NOT interested in D&D and bring in a TON of new blood, some of which undoubtably would become hardcore audiences.
Still with me?
Wow, devoted to reading eh? Sorry to be so long winded. Hopefully it was broken down simply enough so you understood it. The entire idea is actually FAR more complex. This may seem long, but in truth this is REALLY short and simplified.
It is MY take on how this entire D&D thing is working..howeditions play in (FADs) and how they can continue it without changing it if they want. I also tried to explain their different options in relation to what the situations could be.
In short, D&D is a niche game reliant upon a FAD market. Substantial change is the easiest and simplest solution. None or little change is doable...but requires more work and investment. You have to hire the right people who have the best grasp on brand extension. Substantial change works best when you don't have access to those people, or the right connections.
D&D is a quirk in that it is a Niche game working in a Mass Market history. In that it is unique where very few other games qualify (A&A, maybe a few of the old AH games, but all of those old AH games would also themselves be completely niche now). It depends on which direction you want D&D to go.
Still here? Good, I'll shut up now.
