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banshee
I believe you are working on an assumption that may or may not be correct...though I think it's probably not. The assumption is that players had to stay away from 4E in order to have a sufficient number of people to support Pathfinder.
Why is it that we assume that if someone plays one of those games (4E or Pathfinder), that same person can't, or won't, also play the other?
I'm not making that assumption at all. I *know* that some groups are doing both....my old group is doing that...they play 4E Fridays, I believe, and Pathfinder Sundays. Now, that having been said, the ones I've talked with have mentioned they may be quitting the 4E game since they just don't really like it.
Of course, whether that dislike is because of the game, the campaign, or the ruleset, I don't know.
Why is it that we also assume, that had 4E been more popular and garnered more 3E fans to it, that Pathfinder (or any continuation of 3.x) would not have been possible?
I think we are without sufficient data (outside of WotC and Paizo market research and polls), to allow for such assumptions. I also believe there's an "Us versus Them" and "Either/Or" presumption present in such assumptions.
I don't have an answer to this one.
What I would say as an assumption is that I *feel* it is reasonable that, given the multitude of edition wars, flame wars, articles, and general navel gazing regarding the popularity of 4E and the split in the fanbase, that a relatively large number of D&D consumers chose not to change to the new edition.
If these consumers didn't change edition, then they became potential consumers of Pathfinder products.
So, I'll admit this is an assumption. The paragraphs above outline the line of thought I pursued to make that assumption.
If most people in your area seemed to be heading towards 4E, and you felt you were probably going to need to also (even though you weren't attracted to 4E), was it because you felt you wouldn't have enough people left to continue playing 3.x...?
If the above is the case, then what difference did having Pathfinder make? If there weren't enough players available for 3.x due to the majority switching to 4E, then how were there enough people to play Pathfinder? And if there were enough people that didn't switch to 4E, why didn't you and they just continue with 3.x...?
Was it "cool" that you didn't have to buy into 4E (due to the development of Pathfinder), because it meant you didn't have to buy into a system you weren't enamored of...or did you mean something else?
By no means do I believe that I know even a decent percentage of the players in my area. There are hundreds or possibly thousands. I've probably gamed with maybe 20-30 of them in my city over the years.
So when I say that everyone seemed to be changing, I developed that perception based on talking to people at the local FLGS, including the owners, and seeing the number of people buying into the new edition, seeing that all the games being run in the public game rooms were 4E, the owners of those shops were talking about how cool the new edition was, etc.
On top of that, in my own group, opinion split. Generally it seemed like the more casual players seemed reluctant to change, whereas the die hards, rules mechanics etc. wanted to change. As a group, we discussed it, and I wasn't really interested in changing editions. Since it was my campaign at the time, we kept playing 3E. Yet, there was still interest in trying 4E.
I had to end the campaign when I was laid off, to focus on a job search, and in my absence, they started a new 4E game. So, yes, I had some concern about being able to find a group playing 3E games, when I was ready to get started again.
At that point, it seemed like I might not be able to find groups playing 3E since all the postings I found seemed to have to do with starting 4E games. But as more info about Pathfinder started to come out, even members of my old group started talking about it. The new game came out, my old players started playing it, and I started to see postings about Pathfinder games. And at the local FLGS', the number of Pathfinder products started growing....talking with the owners, a few of them mentioned that sales seemed to be 50/50. It didn't start that way.....at first Pathfinder seemed to just be for hold outs.......but it seems to have grown.
This is all just my observations. I don't claim that they're correct, or correct beyond my area. They're just what I can see. It helps that I know personally the owners of 4 of the 6 game shops in my city. So they're always willing to talk. But it's not like they lay out their sales figures.

They're just making anecdotal statements.
Banshee