After reading through the replies to my OP, I think I can boil down a key point to the following: 20c D&D may not have been less complicated--especially AD&D--but it was easier to ignore layers of detail. Weapon speed? Really? I don't remember ever using it. Spell components? Nice idea but kind of a hassle. Actually, I don't know if it was simply because I was young when I played 1E, but I ignored a ton of rules.
In 21c D&D, it is harder to ignore rules, to play a simplified version of the game. Everything is too entwined. And that's the point - it isn't that 21c D&D is actually more complicated, it is that it requires one to use a larger percent of the RAW. In 20c D&D (as far as I can remember) it was easy to just use what you wanted to use.
3e is no no way too complicated. The case can be made that the core books are too information heavy simply by dint of being so exhaustive.
This, I would think, is true from the perspective of someone familiar with the game and comfortable with rules heavy games in general. But what about a newbie? A friend's girlfriend that isn't into gaming but wants to try it out? What about the millions of potential fans that might give it a whirl if making a character didn't take two hours?
Again, I like the density of 21c D&D, but my point is that there needs to be a simpler option, a "Basic" version of the game that is very simple and onto which all rules can be interchangeably used as modular options. WotC has not done that with 3E, 3.5 or 4E (and no, Essentials isn't really what I'm talking about, although you could argue it takes a half step in the right direction).
Part of the problem with your argument, however, is that 2E is pretty complex when you added in non-core books - skills & powers, kits, Complete Books of everything and so on & so forth. If you stick with just the core rules for 3E or 3.5E, the game remains nearly as simple as 2E core rules.
See my point above - it is easier to pay a simplified version of 20c D&D than it is 21c D&D.
What drives people away from RPG's is two things:
1. Time sink....
2. Options....
Good points, although I don't think they replace what I'm talking about but are additional reasons. I hear your point about many other games being complicated, but I still think it is a major factor in why newbies don't play or even give the game a shot.
Actually, it reminds me of fantasy or science fiction novels in which there is a period of time in which one has to acclimate to a new world, learn how things work, get a sense of the rules of the setting, so to speak. Fans of the genre love that experience - it is discovering a new world, akin to figuring a puzzle out. But for those not used to reading sf/f works it can be disorienting to say the least, at worst off-putting altogether. As a fan of sf/f, the experience of "What the hell is going on?" is a pleasant one; for many, however, it is not.
The same goes for RPGs. Anyone sitting down to play 4E for the first time has to go through a significant time period before they're really up and running with the game. However, that's not the problem. 1-2 hours making a character? Not ideal, but it isn't a deal-breaker. A combat or two to get the hang of how the rules work? Fine. But the real problem is the many sessions afterwards where every new situation requires a rulebook lookup. When I first started playing 4E this went on for a
year or more (granted, we only played once a month for the first year or so, and that was part of the problem because it took a longer period of time for the rules of the game to "stick" because we had so much time between sessions).
I think people are forgetting how complicated 1e and 2e could be and I have a theory why. 1e had some fairly complicated rules about shield use, facing, helmets, and that's all without getting into weapon vs armor type modifiers.
True - and see my first couple paragraphs. These rules were easier to ignore in 20c D&D. I am arguing that it is harder to not play the RAW in 21c D&D.