My big question is: how does this work with negative mechanics? The fact that one cannot trade precision for power in a melee attack without the proper Feat - Power Attack - in 3E is the example I'm thinking about. It seems to me that, in that case, there are meaningful mechanical decisions that have no association with the decisions made by the character - assuming the character wants to trade precision for power yet does not possess the Power Attack Feat.
I would argue what you have there is an arguably odd abstraction.
Let's momentarily simplify the situation by removing Power Attack for the equation. Imagine the feat doesn't exist. What you're left is a game system that doesn't include a mechanical model for trading precision for power. That doesn't mean that your character can't choose to do that; it just means that the choice isn't mechanically relevant (it's been lost in the abstraction of the system).
If we add Power Attack back into this hypothetical system, does anything change? Nope. The system is basically saying, "The decision to trade precision for power is only mechanically relevant if you've had special training for it."
I can see why that particular abstraction would potentially feel strange to some people. (And Justin would probably agree with them. We play with house rules which unify the mechanics for Power Attack and Combat Expertise by giving Combat Expertise the same BAB cap as Power Attack. They also offer a non-trained option of both abilities which basically builds on the rules for fighting defensively.)
I'm not ruling out the possibility of a system being dissociated by the absence of some mechanic. But I wouldn't characterize this particular oddity as a dissociation. It's still a matter of game world information not being available in the mechanics; not mechanical information being unavailable to the game world.
With hit points, it seems to me that there is information available to the player - eg I will die if I take one more hit, or I can jump over that 200' cliff and survive, or There's no way a single blow of that sword can kill me - that is manifestly not available to the PC.
Quite possibly. As the original essay stated, all mechanics both abstracted
and metagamed (emphasis added). The example given in the essay are players knowing that fireballs do (d6 x level) damage whereas characters have no idea what d6s are. The exact numerical representation of hit points or Strength or the DC of an Open Lock check would all be similar examples.
I believe some versions of 3E (eg Eberron) use such a mechanic.
I don't think I've ever seen anyone claim that dissociated mechanics were wholly absent from pre-4E versions of D&D. But differences in degree are not irrelevant. If someone says, "I don't really like eating salt-licks." Replying with, "Ah-ha! I saw you put salt on your mashed potatoes last night!" doesn't really have any relevance.
So if I'm understanding this (clarified) explanation of dissociated powers...
Nope. Pretty much every single thing you wrote there was incorrect. You're still confusing abstraction and dissociation.
You think exactly that. First because the set up situation isn't likely to occur exactly the same, in that game or even next weeks game, or even in practice. Second, because the wind conditions could easily blow the ball to the left or right, or the defense could have caught him or any number of situations. There are loads of receivers that drop the ball, in similar situations or aren't even there to try to catch it. The power represents the occasions when everything goes just right and they have the skill, hence it is a daily and not an at will.
Same with Trick Strike, it's not a loss of still from the rogue it's the fact the other variables aren't right. The opponent sees through the feint, or some other event.
Everything you say there is true.
But the reason the mechanic is dissociated is because the player making the decision that "this is the moment where everything has lined up to make this happen" is the equivalent of Baptiste saying
in the huddle, "Okay, on this play I'm going to leap backwards, catch the ball one-handed, and then do a reverse somersault." And begin right every single time he chooses to say that (but he can only say it once per day).