I've decided to add my voice to the mob by predicting what D&D Next might actually look like, not what I want it to look like or what's the most outrageous thing for it to look like. Here are my predictions:
1. D&D Next is not going to slaughter any sacred cows. There will be no massive change to the mechanics on the scale of AEDU in 4th edition. Players will have six stats that go from 3 to 18 and rise over time. Classes and races will be distinct entities. Your attack and defense stats will gradually increase with level, and the monsters will do the same. There will not be any major new mechanics blatantly borrowed from video games. There might not be any major new mechanics at all. No problems endemic to D&D from the beginning will be fixed, unless that fix is optional or not disruptive to people who still play original D&D.
2. D&D Next will revive some sacred cows that were slaughtered in 4th edition. The nine alignments will return. Fighters and wizards will be distinct mechanically, although every class will have a healthy amount of customization. Some classes will be more old school and some classes will be more new school. The AEDU system might still exist in some form, although it won't work the same for every class like in 4th edition. Some spellcasters might work in some way similarly to Vancian magic, but it won't be as much of a hassle as it was at high levels in 3rd edition. Magic will definitely be magical again. Mechanics from previous editions will only be brought back if they genuinely work in the new system, not out of an empty appeal to nostalgia.
3. The numerics won't change much from 4e. AC, Fort, Reflex, and Will will remain the four defenses, d20 rolls will get a +1 every 2 levels, and every class will make attack rolls the same way. For whatever problems 4e had, the numerics worked pretty well. All players will use the same set of numbers, regardless of the options they pick. If one player has a Reflex defense and the other rolls Reflex saving throws, there's no way a monster can interact with both players the same way. THAC0 and those massive charts aren't coming back. There will be a way to make the game feel like old timey D&D, but the old school players will have to get used to rolling the dice like the new school players.
4. Each class will have a default set of options at every level, for players who do not want to customize their characters at all. Most of these options will be simple, like +1 to damage with a weapon type or +1 to attack with fire spells. Maybe every few levels, the character will get a new ability, but it won't happen every level. The player will have an option to exchange these default option for something more complicated. For example, let's say at level 5 a fighter picks a weapon type and gets +1 to damage with it. The player will have the option to exchange this benefit for Cleave, or an encounter power, or a variety of other options.
5. Feats will give more options, not numeric bonuses. This means if one player chooses to use feats and the other does not, one player will have more choices each battle, but these choices will not be more powerful than the default options. Alternatively, feats might blend in with class abilities. For example, every fighter will get a set of abilities just for being a fighter. Then at level 5, the fighter will choose between getting +1 to damage with a weapon type, or a feat.
6. Skills will work mostly the same way as in 4e, but players will have some option to tweak their skills, taking -1 in one skill in exchange for +1 in another. Craft and profession skills will definitely be an option.
7. Magic items will be unique and special again, like they were in Mordenkainen's Magnificent Emporium. The magic items arms race will be an option, along with inherent bonuses for players who want none of that. No prediction on which will be the default option.
8. There will be a PHB, DMG, and MM. I know people would prefer everything to be in one book, but larger books are more expensive, and people who only want to play and not DMs will save money by only buying the PHB. The first half of the PHB will be the bare bones rules and designed to appeal to new players (especially children) and old school players. The second half of the book will have the options to make your characters more complicated. The DMG will have all the optional rules that apply to the entire game, not just individual players. The default system will probably feel like D&D 3e, but with the fixes that 4e genuinely did right. The new releases will not be compatible with old editions. Wizards is not going to take the time to accommodate books that can only be found in antique shops and eBay.
9. The system by default will have little need for miniatures. Miniatures will be an optional rule, and more complicated miniatures rules will be another option. Fortune cards will work the same way. The fact that Wizards is no longer producing miniatures implies that they won't be relying on them for a cash cow. I am optimistic that the number of accessories you absolutely need beyond the books, dice, pencil, and paper will be minimal.
10. Expect more digital integration. The digital options you get with D&DI will be taken up a notch, and hopefully they'll be available for Android and iOS tablets now that they're more widespread. I'm also hoping they'll either get it all right this time or hire a contractor that will. Wizards deserves a lot of criticism for how they handled D&DI in 4th edition, but this was a learning process for them, and the transition to D&D Next will be handled more smoothly. You're definitely going to need Internet access and a subscription for all of this, sorry.
I'm putting this online mostly so I can check my own predictions when they've been proven true or false. This is what I think is the most likely possibility for D&D Next. I am reserving judgement on whether or not I actually like it until we know more, but I do not expect to be shocked. Let me know what you think.
1. D&D Next is not going to slaughter any sacred cows. There will be no massive change to the mechanics on the scale of AEDU in 4th edition. Players will have six stats that go from 3 to 18 and rise over time. Classes and races will be distinct entities. Your attack and defense stats will gradually increase with level, and the monsters will do the same. There will not be any major new mechanics blatantly borrowed from video games. There might not be any major new mechanics at all. No problems endemic to D&D from the beginning will be fixed, unless that fix is optional or not disruptive to people who still play original D&D.
2. D&D Next will revive some sacred cows that were slaughtered in 4th edition. The nine alignments will return. Fighters and wizards will be distinct mechanically, although every class will have a healthy amount of customization. Some classes will be more old school and some classes will be more new school. The AEDU system might still exist in some form, although it won't work the same for every class like in 4th edition. Some spellcasters might work in some way similarly to Vancian magic, but it won't be as much of a hassle as it was at high levels in 3rd edition. Magic will definitely be magical again. Mechanics from previous editions will only be brought back if they genuinely work in the new system, not out of an empty appeal to nostalgia.
3. The numerics won't change much from 4e. AC, Fort, Reflex, and Will will remain the four defenses, d20 rolls will get a +1 every 2 levels, and every class will make attack rolls the same way. For whatever problems 4e had, the numerics worked pretty well. All players will use the same set of numbers, regardless of the options they pick. If one player has a Reflex defense and the other rolls Reflex saving throws, there's no way a monster can interact with both players the same way. THAC0 and those massive charts aren't coming back. There will be a way to make the game feel like old timey D&D, but the old school players will have to get used to rolling the dice like the new school players.
4. Each class will have a default set of options at every level, for players who do not want to customize their characters at all. Most of these options will be simple, like +1 to damage with a weapon type or +1 to attack with fire spells. Maybe every few levels, the character will get a new ability, but it won't happen every level. The player will have an option to exchange these default option for something more complicated. For example, let's say at level 5 a fighter picks a weapon type and gets +1 to damage with it. The player will have the option to exchange this benefit for Cleave, or an encounter power, or a variety of other options.
5. Feats will give more options, not numeric bonuses. This means if one player chooses to use feats and the other does not, one player will have more choices each battle, but these choices will not be more powerful than the default options. Alternatively, feats might blend in with class abilities. For example, every fighter will get a set of abilities just for being a fighter. Then at level 5, the fighter will choose between getting +1 to damage with a weapon type, or a feat.
6. Skills will work mostly the same way as in 4e, but players will have some option to tweak their skills, taking -1 in one skill in exchange for +1 in another. Craft and profession skills will definitely be an option.
7. Magic items will be unique and special again, like they were in Mordenkainen's Magnificent Emporium. The magic items arms race will be an option, along with inherent bonuses for players who want none of that. No prediction on which will be the default option.
8. There will be a PHB, DMG, and MM. I know people would prefer everything to be in one book, but larger books are more expensive, and people who only want to play and not DMs will save money by only buying the PHB. The first half of the PHB will be the bare bones rules and designed to appeal to new players (especially children) and old school players. The second half of the book will have the options to make your characters more complicated. The DMG will have all the optional rules that apply to the entire game, not just individual players. The default system will probably feel like D&D 3e, but with the fixes that 4e genuinely did right. The new releases will not be compatible with old editions. Wizards is not going to take the time to accommodate books that can only be found in antique shops and eBay.
9. The system by default will have little need for miniatures. Miniatures will be an optional rule, and more complicated miniatures rules will be another option. Fortune cards will work the same way. The fact that Wizards is no longer producing miniatures implies that they won't be relying on them for a cash cow. I am optimistic that the number of accessories you absolutely need beyond the books, dice, pencil, and paper will be minimal.
10. Expect more digital integration. The digital options you get with D&DI will be taken up a notch, and hopefully they'll be available for Android and iOS tablets now that they're more widespread. I'm also hoping they'll either get it all right this time or hire a contractor that will. Wizards deserves a lot of criticism for how they handled D&DI in 4th edition, but this was a learning process for them, and the transition to D&D Next will be handled more smoothly. You're definitely going to need Internet access and a subscription for all of this, sorry.
I'm putting this online mostly so I can check my own predictions when they've been proven true or false. This is what I think is the most likely possibility for D&D Next. I am reserving judgement on whether or not I actually like it until we know more, but I do not expect to be shocked. Let me know what you think.
