D&D 5E What happens if 5E fails to unite the base?

[Bedrockgames]

I am just curious what people think will happen if 5E fails to unite the customer base (which is its design goal). Let's say it does about as well or a little better/worse than 4E (and the split basically stays where it is); what direction do you think WOTC will or should go from there?

 

[Frostmarrow]

I'm positive their plan will work out. But if it should fail I think they'll leave the market for a few years and use the brand name to sell/license books, movies, board- and computer games. They would need to narrow the scope of the D&D experience so as to make it easier to market.

 

[Ahnehnois]

I think the brand would be either sold or mothballed.

It's been made pretty clear that regardless of whatever its successes might be, selling 4e products to the 4e fanbase is not a successful business strategy for them. Taking what was a niche market to begin with and targeting one subgroup out of it while excluding the rest does not work on the scale they're looking for. And, as they've rather explicitly acknowledged, trying to force change on their customer base is an ineffective strategy.

So the answer is that WotC and Hasbro simply can't afford to continue on their path, they have to change it.

 

[Olgar Shiverstone]

Then in 3-4 years they'll be releasing a 6th Edition with a goal of reuniting the player base ...

 

[Nagol]

Then the fantaasy roleplaying market will continue to stumble along as it is today. WotC will focus on more profitable aspects of the hobby business (CCGs, board games) and larger revenue generating aspects of their IP (movies, books).

Other competitors will take over leadership of the hobby. Players will continue playing.

In 3-5 years, as their RPG revenue begins to dry up, they evaluate what to do with the game. It may be dropped into evergreen mode (minimal stock to handle current and expected demand and no new development) until future demand picks up or it may be redeveloped as the next killer RPG.

 

[Crazy Jerome]

Given the wide extremes and nuances in playing styles, coupled with residual gool-will and ill-will in certain segments towards various RPG companies ...

Magic 8 ball says that unification will be somewhat successful, but not unambiguously so. This will lead to a lot of sturm and drang on message boards where people try to spin this in the way they want it to come out. Since we still won't have any trustworthy numbers, we won't truly know.

That is, any reality related to their success or failure towards this goal will be muted in perception.

 

[Number48]

D&D is the flagship of pretty much all roleplaying. Nothing else is so universally known and played. If 5E is an unprofitable venture for Wizards, I see us as players pretty much continuing to do as we are now, but the entire concept of pen and paper roleplaying games will get aged out with us as too few younger people pick up dead and dying games.

5E NEEDS to at least be profitable, even if it can't be all things to all people, or we'll see the death of roleplaying within 30 years.

 

[MINI]

Do you think there is any valid business plan for them to print out reprints of old modules and books packaged together with new supplements that go with those new books? It might be an avenue to take vs coming out with new RPGs all the time.

 

[Thornir Alekeg]

Do you think there is any valid business plan for them to print out reprints of old modules and books packaged together with new supplements that go with those new books? It might be an avenue to take vs coming out with new RPGs all the time.

I think this is very likely; just update the mechanics to the new ruleset and you can replay the classics: "This is not your father's Lost Caverns...oh, wait, yes it is..."

 

[grimslade]

If 5E does not consolidate a good portion of the fan base, things stay the same for the next 2-3 years. Hasbro makes a call on whether D&D needs to be further developed. It an shutter the design and development of the ttrpg portion and use the IP for books, direct to download movies and crpg/mmo licensing.
Pathfinder will continue on its way, grabbing a larger portion of the market, but ttrpg will dwindle over the next 10 years.