D&D 5E 5E and the OGL

[Mark CMG]

So, in your opinion, if WotC tomorrow changes his plans, and instead of delivering 5e, they deliver an OGL for 4e, and doesn't change anything about 4e (healing surges, AEDU, non-vancian, different rules for monsters, and all the things that make some people hate it), it will beat paizo?

Nope. That shipped has sailed.

Of course anecdotal evidence sometimes matches what happens - and sometimes it doesn't. The purpose of data is find out which is which.

There is a pile of data in every annecdote, whether the person telling it knows it or not, but the data is more affected by the person giving it than the person who wants it.

 

[triqui]

Nope. That shipped has sailed.

I agree with that. I'll change the question then. Hypothethic speaking here: If they would had done so in 2008, would people who don't like unpopular designs in 4e (healing surges, AEDU, non-vancian wizards, MMO-like roles, and whatever) play it? I know we don't have a Crystal Ball, but I'd like to know your opinion in the matter. Would the grognards play 4e, with current design, if it were OGL?

Even more: would those grognards play 4E if it were a 3.75 version (3.5 streamlined, ala pathfinder), but not OGL?

Speaking about pure anecdotal evidence: I jumped in the 4e wagon, even if it wasn't OGL, and after a few years I realized I didn't like some things about it, and changed to Pathfinder which is my current game. And OGL wasn't the reason either (I only use a single 3pp product, and it is an adventure)

 

[Alzrius]

I once throw a stone to a dog, and the dog bite me. It was by no means a given, the dog might had run frightened, but that's what happened. So I won't throw stones against dogs, ever.

WotC might be right about how inevitable the OGL was, or they might be wrong. Maybe it was not a given, but it is what happened. People learn by their experiences, and that's what WotC will do. 100% of the times I threw a stone to a dog, the dog bited me: 1/1. There won't be a second try.

100% of the times WotC went with an OGL system, it generated a competitor that is devastating them. Right or wrong, that's their experience.

Yes, but I think WotC is also smart enough to not simply shrug their shoulders and say "post hoc ergo propter hoc."

 

[Oni]

I don't dismiss anecdotal evidence of market. I dismiss his claim that he is so incredibly important to the game. That's just nerd wishful thinking, of someone who wants to feel he is important to the game, and being vocal in the internet does make a change. It doesn't. It is just a "I'm the center of the universe complex"

That`s edging mighty close to a personal attack.

As an individual I`m not any more important than any other consumer. I`m not alone though, my contention is that like minded people to myself have a significant impact as a group. If you want to disagree, cool, no need to be rude about it.

One more thing, in response to your earlier post. I don`t know what you think you know about me, but I live in the same country as the people I play with and game with them face to face.

 

[triqui]

Yes, but I think WotC is also smart enough to not simply shrug their shoulders and say "post hoc ergo propter hoc."

That fallacy says a fact does not *necesarelly* be the cause of what happens later. It does not *forbid* it to be so. If I drink milk, and get sick, it does not mean *necesarelly* that I'm lactose intolerant. But that does not mean I *cannot be*.

And if you eat a certain mushroom, and you get hallucinations, a stomach ache, and you are close to die, and then you plan to eat again the same kind of mushroom, because "post hoc ergo propter hoc" fallacy says it is not necesarelly related, then you have a clear lack of common sense.

 

[Alzrius]

That fallacy says a fact does not *necesarelly* be the cause of what happens later. It does not *forbid* it to be so. If I drink milk, and get sick, it does not mean *necesarelly* that I'm lactose intolerant. But that does not mean I *cannot be*.

And if you eat a certain mushroom, and you get hallucinations, a stomach ache, and you are close to die, and then you plan to eat again the same kind of mushroom, because "post hoc ergo propter hoc" fallacy says it is not necesarelly related, then you have a clear lack of common sense.

That's not the point you were making before, however.

You were expressly advocating that because one thing happened to follow another, most people will simply assume that it caused it, and so not follow that course of action a second time. In your own words, "Maybe it was not a given, but it is what happened. People learn by their experiences, and that's what WotC will do."

Turning around and saying "but sometimes that's true!" when someone points out that that's an unfounded assumption doesn't undercut the point that it's still an illogical assumption. I'm betting that WotC is wise enough that they won't make such an assumption (though they might not use the OGL anyway for other reasons).

 

[triqui]

That`s edging mighty close to a personal attack.

I apologize then.

As an individual I`m not any more important than any other consumer. I`m not alone though, my contention is that like minded people to myself have a significant impact as a group. If you want to disagree, cool, no need to be rude about it.

Exactly my point. You, and me, and any other people posting in this forum, or any other, is not more important than any other consumer. You said before that some of those consumers, labeled "devoted fans", are somewhat special, and deserve to be heared more.
I quote:
The more devoted fans are the ones that drive the hobby. They're the ones that have the most influence with what games their groups play (especially since the most dedicated person at the table is probably the one running the games). They're the ones introducing new players to their game of choice and expanding the hobby. They're the ones responsible for the sense of community that surrounds a game and a game company, they're the ones responsible for the tenor of the conversation.

This part is what I disagree. Maybe I misunderstood it. Now that I read your new post, I see we agree: you, and me, and any other consumer, are all of the same importance. There is not a subset of consumers with special importance, called "devoted fans", that deserve to be heared or cattered above everybody else.

One more thing, in response to your earlier post. I don`t know what you think you know about me, but I live in the same country as the people I play with and game with them face to face.

I don't understand this part. Did I suggest otherwise?

 

[triqui]

That's not the point you were making before, however.

You were expressly advocating that because one thing happened to follow another, most people will simply assume that it caused it, and so not follow that course of action a second time. In your own words, "Maybe it was not a given, but it is what happened. People learn by their experiences, and that's what WotC will do."

Turning around and saying "but sometimes that's true!" when someone points out that that's an unfounded assumption doesn't undercut the point that it's still an illogical assumption. I'm betting that WotC is wise enough that they won't make such an assumption (though they might not use the OGL anyway for other reasons).

"Maybe is nnot a given, but is what happened" is a sentence I copied, word by word, from your own post. IAnyways, the fallacy is not valid in this case, because OGL *did* make Paizo's Pathfinder viable. It might not be the only variable, or the most important one, but it is a necesary one. Paizo could had not made Pathfinder, even with OGL, if some other things were done different. But Paizo couldn't had made Pathfinder, at all, without OGL, regardless of the other variables.

Giving nuclear weapons to a country that later became your enemy and attack you might not be the reason that country became your enemy, but it is a necessary step to be attacked with nuclear weapons. So it's quite unwise giving nuclear weapons to other countries.

 

[Oni]

I don't understand this part. Did I suggest otherwise?

In the meanwhile, how many of them did go to Barns & Nobble and bought the book without you in the country?

You might have.

 

[Dark Mistress]

Lots of stuff said.

Please your proselytizers, and they'll sell it for you; it's something that Coca-Cola or Proctor and Gamble just don't have going for them like RPG companies do. I've never met a person hounding me to try Crest toothpaste or Mello Yellow soft drink just because they like it. Autos are one market I've seen with similar enthusiasts, though; hobbyists who love Fords, or BMWs, will extoll their favorite car's virtues until you agree to test drive one. If an auto enthusiast feels taken care of, they'll work so hard to sell you on their favorite car, they act like they work for the company.

To me, that's why the OGL is as important as it is; without it, the die-hards just aren't coming back, and the changes away from several key 4E mechanics risk driving 4E enthusiasts just as well.

I was just going to XP you for your big post but have to spread it around it says. Anyways i agree over all with you view you mention in it.