I came to fantasy RPG gaming -- D&D -- from wargaming, but in large part because I was a huge fan of The Hobbit and The Lord of the Rings. The last major growth in fantasy RPGs, driven by D&D 3E and the d20 surge, coincidentally occurred just as the three Lord of the Rings movies were being released.
With three Hobbit movies coming, is there an opportunity for a surge in gaming? Is WotC behind in not having 5E (or even a new release of 4E material) ready for release as the Hobbit hits theaters, to try and grab on to the rising tide of interest? Or is this an opportunity for other companies to grab on to Hobbit popularity with the release of new LotR gaming material or other new fantasy gaming items?
Honestly, I couldn't guess. I started playing D&D (in 1977) and read the Lord of the Rings in the same summer, but after already playing my first games of D&D. Many, many people at the time were reading Lord of the Rings, and even then, there's only ever been a handful of people playing D&D at the time and since. I think it's coincidental that I read the books and was playing D&D. Just because somebody I knew read LotR, doesn't equate to they will want to be exposed to RPGs now.
I can say, everyone I game with read the books and saw the movies, but that's because most of us gamers are Sci-Fi/Fantasy fans. It's not necessarily true the other way around. Being a Sci-Fi/Fantasy fan doesn't mean they also play RPGs.
And the more recent movies - was there a big sudden growth in D&D with the release of those films? Not to my knowledge. I knew people who expected a video game to be released soon after, but not one person who said to me, "Since watching LotR, now I want to try out roleplaying games" - not one person.
That's my expectation for The Hobbit as well. If somebody starts doing table top after watching the movie, it's coincidental. Watching one doesn't guarantee playing the other. I see no real connection whatsoever.
It's good that the OP was compelled to start playing after exposure to LotR, but that's just one case. I don't think it's a situation to rely upon to increasing the number of participants in our hobby.