D&D 5E PHB is #3 right now on "Amazon's Hot New Releases"

[mechascorpio]

The information on sales ranks to units sold is out there if you google it. Generally speaking, the top 5 ranks means it is selling thousands of copies per day and several tens of thousands per week. The way it works is roughly an hourly decay rate based upon copies sold versus time released, such that previous best sellers "decay" in rank so that new best sellers can take their place. It is a "What's popular now" list.

So what this means is that WOTC's moving probably 20,000 to 30,000 units this week on Amazon alone and they're on track for potentially a couple hundred thousand copies in the first month.

I'm familiar with some of the sales rank numbers which you're referring to and based on what I've read, I think you are for the most part correct. But from what I've read, IIRC, those who have deciphered the numbers have said that it's thousands per day overall, not just Amazon. Thousands per day includes everyone who reports to Nielsen Bookscan (which is how they translated Amazon ranking into units). So, yes, 20k-30k per week, but not Amazon alone. But these figures also don't include the pre-order that have been going on since May, and the Starter Set and PHB have been in and out of the Top 100 a few times, even off peak. We'll never know for sure, but I do think 150k-250k is likely by the end of August. With a few more spikes when the MM and DMG are released, along with the holidays, I think 500,000 PHBs sold by the end of the year is entirely likely.

Maybe someday we'll get lucky and Mearls will tell us how many Basic D&D downloads (per revision) there were, because I could see that being two to three times more than that. Not everyone who downloads will play, not everyone will buy the books. But split it into thirds (1/3 download and leave, 1/3 download and buy, 1/3 download and play, but don't buy), and you could imagine 5E having at least a million new players in 2014 alone.

 

[Mistwell]

I'm familiar with some of the sales rank numbers which you're referring to and based on what I've read, I think you are for the most part correct. But from what I've read, IIRC, those who have deciphered the numbers have said that it's thousands per day overall, not just Amazon. Thousands per day includes everyone who reports to Nielsen Bookscan (which is how they translated Amazon ranking into units). So, yes, 20k-30k per week, but not Amazon alone. But these figures also don't include the pre-order that have been going on since May, and the Starter Set and PHB have been in and out of the Top 100 a few times, even off peak. We'll never know for sure, but I do think 150k-250k is likely by the end of August. With a few more spikes when the MM and DMG are released, along with the holidays, I think 500,000 PHBs sold by the end of the year is entirely likely.

No I do not think the Amazon number is pulling from Bookscan. The NYT list does, but not the Amazon one.

 

[mechascorpio]

No I do not think the Amazon number is pulling from Bookscan. The NYT list does, but not the Amazon one.

I think you misunderstood. I'm not saying that the Amazon Rank has anything to do with Bookscan (or vice versa). I'm saying that since no one except Amazon knows how their ranks translate into units, someone (Publishers Weekly in 2013, IIRC) used Bookscan numbers to figure out how many units per day/week an Amazon Top 10 book was selling. Their best estimation was that it was somewhere over 1000 units/day, or 7000-10,000 per week. Amazon was 30% of the total market (including those who do report to Bookscan), so @ 20k-30k total a week.

Assuming that Rygar and I are even referring to the same studies.

 

[Rygar]

I'm familiar with some of the sales rank numbers which you're referring to and based on what I've read, I think you are for the most part correct. But from what I've read, IIRC, those who have deciphered the numbers have said that it's thousands per day overall, not just Amazon. Thousands per day includes everyone who reports to Nielsen Bookscan (which is how they translated Amazon ranking into units). So, yes, 20k-30k per week, but not Amazon alone. But these figures also don't include the pre-order that have been going on since May, and the Starter Set and PHB have been in and out of the Top 100 a few times, even off peak. We'll never know for sure, but I do think 150k-250k is likely by the end of August. With a few more spikes when the MM and DMG are released, along with the holidays, I think 500,000 PHBs sold by the end of the year is entirely likely.

Maybe someday we'll get lucky and Mearls will tell us how many Basic D&D downloads (per revision) there were, because I could see that being two to three times more than that. Not everyone who downloads will play, not everyone will buy the books. But split it into thirds (1/3 download and leave, 1/3 download and buy, 1/3 download and play, but don't buy), and you could imagine 5E having at least a million new players in 2014 alone.

I definitely agree it's looking like they're going to sell hundreds of thousands, and I bow to your knowledge on sales ranks as that explains some oddities in the info I had read.

I think 500,000 is optimistic though. Reportedly 3.0 sold 500,000 total, 3.5 sold 250,000, I saw 250,000 bandied about for Pathfinder, and the best estimate I can come up with for 4th based on available info puts it between 50,000 and 100,000 (When using multiple data points). It's definitely in the realm of possibility, especially with the resurgence of board gaming and the major decline in video gaming, but honestly I'd predict closer to 300,000.

 

[Zardnaar]

Also the bubble will burst as well, look at the starter set after 3 weeks. The bubble could pop in a few weeks and at 20k a week it is around 60k or so. Still looking good but 500k for 3.0, 250-350k for 3.5, 250k for PF.

They need to sustain those sales over several months to come close to 3.0 although to be fair 500k was over 2.5 years or so.

 

[The Black Ranger]

Let's not forget that people will buy it to check it out. Waving the victory flag is a bit premature.

I wouldn't rely on Amazon to be a full proof answer as to how well it's doing.

 

[TerraDave]

Yes, success requires going beyond being the top new seller.
Or dominating the Rpg catagory, where the starter set still sits at the top next to the phb.

They should just shut down wotc for such a fail.

 

[The Black Ranger]

Yes, success requires going beyond being the top new seller.
Or dominating the Rpg catagory, where the starter set still sits at the top next to the phb.

They should just shut down wotc for such a fail.

And? Way to go with more exaggeration to support your argument.

Hitting the top seller doesn't mean that much when you are dealing with this type of product. The real evidence comes later on when everyone has gotten a handle on all the rules. Thinking any different is just fooling yourself.

 

[Mistwell]

Let's not forget that people will buy it to check it out. Waving the victory flag is a bit premature.

Waiving the victory flag over...what? What would they be beating by succeeding, in your mind?

I wouldn't rely on Amazon to be a full proof answer as to how well it's doing.

Why not? What better answer would we have, other than proof of selling well?

 

[Gamgee]

So far 5th seems to be very well received here and we don't even have the full book. I think this is a success. Like it or not. A return to form for D&D. So good in fact I'm excited. Can't say I've felt that about anything 3.5/4th/Pathfinder related ever.