3. Casters can count squares and line up enemies all they like, in my game they still have to roll to hit the spot they're aiming at.* It's usually pretty easy to get it close enough, but trick shots or blind shots aren't always easy at all; and anything requiring a roll to aim can always cause a fumble if the rolls are bad enough.
* - I can't recommend this highly enough as a way of reining in casters a bit
I hope you don't let enemies roll their saving throw against such aimed fireball. 'Cause that effectively gives them two layers of protection against casters which doesn't look fair. Imagine if every time a fighter hit an opponent the later would roll for dodge.
Advantage/disadvantage mechanic covers cases like ths quite nicely in my opinion. Enemies in question would get an advantage on ST and that's it.
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