D&D 5E Crystal Ball: A year in, how do you think 5E will unfold going forward?

[Jester David]

How do extra books unbalance the game if you don't purchase them?

But if no one buys then, why should WotC release them?
That's the catch in the argument. DMs are the primary purchasers of the game, so releasing lots of books that give the DM more homework and unbalance the game is not producing content the majority or purchasers want.

Also, I just want to say that some of you are taking this a little to the extreme. Four extra books during the year is not going to throw the game out of whack. If that is the case then the rules are not very stable.

Four extra books? On top of the 2-3 we already have?
Okay, 4-5 books is a LOT. That's 4 books this year, 8 next, 12 the year after, and 16 on year four. That is a metric eff-tonne of content. Because it's not just about the game right now, but the game in two years or four years or ten years.

 

[Corpsetaker]

But if no one buys then, why should WotC release them?
That's the catch in the argument. DMs are the primary purchasers of the game, so releasing lots of books that give the DM more homework and unbalance the game is not producing content the majority or purchasers want.


Four extra books? On top of the 2-3 we already have?
Okay, 4-5 books is a LOT. That's 4 books this year, 8 next, 12 the year after, and 16 on year four. That is a metric eff-tonne of content. Because it's not just about the game right now, but the game in two years or four years or ten years.

1: I said "you". There will be plenty of people to buy them.

2: Okay let's look at those four. Those are AP's that have a little crunch, well more spells than anything else but hardly qualifies as loads of crunch. I could understand if we have gotten four full supplemental guides but we haven't so you aren't comparing like for like.

 

[Jester David]

1: I said "you". There will be plenty of people to buy them.

2: Okay let's look at those four. Those are AP's that have a little crunch, well more spells than anything else but hardly qualifies as loads of crunch. I could understand if we have gotten four full supplemental guides but we haven't so you aren't comparing like for like.

Right now it looks like there is going to be two books each yeah, both APs. So if we're adding two more books to the mix I imagine we're talking splatbooks.

I went into why lots of splatbooks and accessories are bad here:
http://www.enworld.org/forum/showth...arcs)/page17&p=6623013&viewfull=1#post6623013

I don't feel any need to repeat that conversation ad nauseum.

 

[Morlock]

There have been plenty of threads, including one or three that I've started, about what WotC should or shouldn't do, what we like or don't like about what we see so far, and so forth, but what I don't see a lot of--except for a stray post here and there scattered amidst everything else--is what people think will actually happen. So here's your chance to share your divining powers: How do you think 5E will unfold? What will the edition cycle look like? What sort of products will we see? Whither the OGL? And so forth.

[...]

I keep wondering what Paizo's going to do, long term. Are they going to be fine with the "our RPG is Pathfinder, the heavy crunch system, and we're okay with losing all the "fast play" junkies who prefer a simpler, looser system meant to be house-ruled," or are they going to make some kind of move to compete more directly with 5e? I'd love to see what they could do in the latter regard. I really like Paizo's commitment to a more "open" approach (e.g., their PDFs are awesome, compared to 5e's big plate of nothin'), but I'm just not into the crunch. I'd like to see them offer some way to "hack" their stuff to play it with 5e-style rules, or APs for 5e-style rules...somethin'.

Edit:

e.g. psionics

Maybe it's just confirmation bias, but that seems to me to be a lot of what people are jonesin' for. Consider it seconded, I want a psionics book. C'mon Wizards, I'm hurtin' bad.

 

[Staffan]

Yeah, that's a thing too. In the Pathfinder game I'm a player in, there are at least 14 different hardbacks in use (Core, GMG, Bestiary 1-4, Ultimate Combat, Ultimage Magic, Ultimate Campaign, Ultimate Equipment, Advanced Player's Guide, Advanced Race Guide, Advanced Class Guide, Inner Sea World Guide), not counting the Rise of the Runelords adventure hardback.

That is a lot of stuff to keep track of. Fortunately, it becomes easier due to having most of the stuff online via the PRD, but moving all that stuff was a big nuisance.

If I had my way, I actually would add about four products to the currently apparent production schedule of two big adventure hardbacks per year:

1. One major hardback release. Some years this would be a campaign setting, others it would be a monster book, others it would be a focused rules expansion (e.g. psionics), and others it would me a miscellaneous rules expansion (a bit of everything, possibly organized around a theme like the recent Waterborne Adventures UA).

2. One smaller setting book describing an area or other feature (e.g. organization or gods) of a setting. I'm seeing this as, say, a Sword Coast book, or a book about the Zhentarim (or, given the AL focus they seem to be having these days, one covering the AL factions).

3. Two smaller stand-alone adventures, 32-64 pages (or possibly larger books with adventure anthologies, like Well of Worlds for Planescape).

The thing with this supposed release schedule is that it only adds one book of "bloat" per year. The other books would only be used on an "as-needed" basis - particularly if they're rules-light, or at least light on player options. If your campaign is set in the Moonsea area, you wouldn't be using the Sword Coast sourcebook.

Now, it doesn't seem likely that this is what we'll be getting, but I think it would strike a nice balance between keeping bloat down and stilling the player base's hunger for material.

 

[Umbran]

How do extra books unbalance the game if you don't purchase them?

Have you ever heard the term "scope creep"? It is a term used in software development, to describe the slow addition of features. Microsoft products, for example, or Photoshop, are fine examples of scope creep - they have so many features as to tend to make the whole package unwieldy, especially to a newcomer. Whether or not they "unbalance" the game, the bulk of stuff starts getting in the way.

How does this impact you, even if you don't purchase them? Let us look at that:

For one thing, later publication will tend to be influenced by earlier publication. Not outright assuming you've bought all the previous work, but at least approaching with the idea that they have to "outdo" previous work to get you to buy more. You get a kind of inflation principle, rather like you can often see in movie series, where the last one must be bigger, louder, and more special-effectsey than the one before it. So, even if you are only buying a few things, their design and style will be influenced by the overall body of work.

For another thing, folks will innocently come to your table wanting various bits from that body of work. Now, it is possible for a GM to be a hardcase, and be "core only", but by and large GMs seem to like to be accommodating. And so, even if one doesn't plan to purchase, one will tend to do so, and extra bits will start leaking in. Even if this does not tilt "game balance", it just makes the whole thing harder to manage.

And, lastly, it ultimately creates this wall of content that new players will find rather daunting. Yes, you only actually *need* Basic to play, but human psychology doesn't approach it in that way. A slimmer release plan keeps the whole ting approachable for longer.

In essence, it isn't easy-as-pie to play the game completely outside the context of its overall body of work, because people don't live in vacuums that have no exposure to the collection outside of what they use.

 

[Corpsetaker]

For another thing, folks will innocently come to your table wanting various bits from that body of work. Now, it is possible for a GM to be a hardcase, and be "core only", but by and large GMs seem to like to be accommodating. And so, even if one doesn't plan to purchase, one will tend to do so, and extra bits will start leaking in. Even if this does not tilt "game balance", it just makes the whole thing harder to manage.

How is picking and choosing what you want in your games being a hardcase? That is what D&D has been about since the beginning. The core rules have always been in the PHB and the DMG. Anything else outside of that was created for any DM that wished to use them in their games. I think that is something that has gotten lost in this whole argument. All books were not created as a must have to play, they were created so people could mix and match what they wanted and shape their games into whatever their group or DM wants.

I also notice in your post above that you mention outside the overall body of work. I think you have mistaken the game as a whole entirely. The overall game is the corebooks while anything else is optional and outside the overall work.

You also seem to assume that more books automatically cause powercreep which they don't. If you want your games to be played a certain way then you go for it, but let me have the options that I want. That's like you saying you don't like apples so I shouldn't have any either.

 

[Shasarak]

In my experience, it's the DM's who buy 90% of the books anyhow.

If it is true that DMs buy 90% of the books then you do not need to produce a book solely aimed at DMs because they are just as likely to buy the Cobblers Handbook 2 as they are to buy Against the Giants 6: This Time We Are Serious!

 

[DaveDash]

Have you ever heard the term "scope creep"? It is a term used in software development, to describe the slow addition of features. Android is a fine example of scope creep - it has so many features as to tend to make the whole package unwieldy, especially to a newcomer.

How does this impact you, even if you don't purchase them? Let us look at that:

For one thing, later publication will tend to be influenced by earlier publication. Not outright assuming you've bought all the previous work, but at least approaching with the idea that they have to "outdo" previous work to get you to buy more. You get a kind of inflation principle, rather like you can often see in movie series, where the last one must be bigger, louder, and more special-effectsey than the one before it. So, even if you are only buying a few things, their design and style will be influenced by the overall body of work.

For another thing, folks will innocently come to your table wanting various bits from that body of work. Now, it is possible for a GM to be a hardcase, and be "core only", but by and large GMs seem to like to be accommodating. And so, even if one doesn't plan to purchase, one will tend to do so, and extra bits will start leaking in. Even if this does not tilt "game balance", it just makes the whole thing harder to manage.

And, lastly, it ultimately creates this wall of content that new players will find rather daunting. Yes, you only actually *need* Basic to play, but human psychology doesn't approach it in that way. A slimmer release plan keeps the whole ting approachable for longer.

In essence, it isn't easy-as-pie to play the game completely outside the context of its overall body of work, because people don't live in vacuums that have no exposure to the collection outside of what they use.

Fixed for you, and not a very good example. If anything a "classic" example of scope creep are U.S. military projects, like the M2A2 Bradley, etc.
Scope creep is when the stakeholders (usually the customer) adds in new stuff into the project before it's been completed - which is bad for fixed price projects, but not bad at all for other projects such as agile/t&m, which are designed with scope creep in mind.
In a D&D context, scope creep would be piling more and more stuff into Princes of the Apocalypses, delaying the release, pushing the price up, etc.

While I think there is 'adequate' content for 5e and Corpsetaker is unable to see the forest for the trees in regards to that, he does have a point. When we played 3rd edition we never really went outside of core. Everyone had a blast. This idea that more books = YOU MUST BUY THEM AND THEY WILL RUIN YOUR GAME is simply not true.

The actual real fact of the matter is more books = diminishing returns for a company. Pazio has found a way to be successful at it, and a lot of people are invested in that model. Wizards have not found a way to be successful at it, the feedback they got saying a good portion of their custom base wasn't interested in it was the icing on the cake for them.

Splat books are appealing to players, not DM's, because they put power in the hands of players and take power out of the hands of the DM. It's why there will always be a divide between pathfinder and D&D, and why pathfinder is not going away any time soon. That model however is valid, appealing, and successful in the right hands. Huge portions of players love to be able to mess with crunch heavy builds, and have that level of power they will not get from 5e.
WoTC has wisely decided they cannot simply compete with Pazio, nor be successful with this kind of business model. They're maximizing RoI (No splatbooks) to keep D&D alive as long as possible, and grow the brand through other more appealing revenue streams.

The statement "Splatbooks are bad" is simply not true. Splatbooks are great for Pazio and pathfinder players. The statement "Splatbooks have been deemed bad by Wizards of the Coast for Dungeons and Dragons" is more factually and conceptually correct.

EDIT: Edited for clarity.

 

[Morlock]

It would seem the guy on jury duty was the guy working on it. Which explains a 6 month+ delay.

So, is the reason "Jury Duty" keeps coming up because he's been sequestered, or being held incommunicado, or something? Because I've never gotten the impression that jury duty would prevent someone from working in the evenings. Does this mean he's been working the whole time, and just unable to deliver the goods? He's got my conversion doc and psionics book all written and ready to go? This guy should be made to stand tall before the man and explain himself, once he's finished with jury duty.

I have mentioned once or twice here that I'd like to see some short adventures from Wizards, particularly low-level ones. I've seen more than a few comments expressing a desire for more short adventures from Wizards. Is there some obvious, fatal flaw to my idea of Wizards packing enough of these together to get to the hardcover size they seem to prefer, and publishing that? Other than the obvious "there's only x here I can use out of y adventures, this sucks" thing? Modules are were typically 32pp, right (64 seems more like a "long adventure" to me, but maybe not post-2e)? Wizards can stuff like 8 of those puppies in there. More, if they put some 16pp adventures in there. If they market it right, it should sell to people who buy APs, right?

You guys will be around to complain when they do release more books that aren't right up your alley.

It's a bit odd that Wizards hasn't announced anything beyond the Core books, and APs (plus maybe a sandboxy AP, or an APish (haha) sandbox, depending on your POV).

I'm not one of the "you guys" you're referring to. I just find it very odd. This hasn't happened since D&D 1e in the 80s. And they had a good excuse; nobody had ever had an RPG make it big before.

WotC isn't missing out on anything, just looking long term.

It's just damned odd (to me).

Also if you were a newcomer to D&D and walked into a store with all the 3.5 products on the shelf it could be very confusing where to start. Also probably be put off starting if you think you must buy all the products.

Look, I get that. I was thinking the same thing. But...

It's a bit odd that Wizards hasn't announced anything beyond the Core books, and APs (plus maybe a sandboxy AP, or an APish (haha) sandbox, depending on your POV).

They could put out a Psionics book and a Setting Book (I'd prefer Dark Sun to the Realms, but that's just me, I'd rather do standard D&D on my own)

Also probably be put off starting if you think you must buy all the products.

At 3 Core books, 5e ain't exactly light as it is. And it's going to be sharing space with the APs. If you're going to be scared away by a library, 8 books ain't that much more intimidating than 6.

It's just damned odd is all.