D&D 5E Crystal Ball: A year in, how do you think 5E will unfold going forward?

[S'mon]

Getting into RPGs tends to appeal to higher IQ types, mostly 110+ (though older systems are more playable at median IQs); they also require fairly high literacy. This restricts the market compared to computer games; it always has and it always will. Plus WoTC have tended with 3e & 4e to cater strongly to a crunch-oriented gearhead market; my player who builds battle systems for Lockheed Martin IRL loves 4e D&D!
5e seems a bit more accessible to IQs in the 105+ range, but quite apart from accessibility, the very pastime of fantasy in-character roleplaying generally only seems attractive to a minority of the population, mostly within the higher-IQ part of the population. Nerd is cool, but high IQ nerds will always be in the minority.

 

[delericho]

I don't know how many PHB's Wizard's will sell this year...

Ryan Dancey said the 3.0e PHB sold 300,000 copies in its first month, and we know that the 5e launch has been bigger (both in profit and also number of units sold). It's also estimated that the 3.0e PHB sold 700k units across its lifetime.

My best guess is that WotC have probably sold about a million core books so far - about half a million PHBs and a quarter each of DMGs and MMs. But, as I said, that's just a best guess.

There's no excuse for D&D to not be front and center in the RPG market in general...

Sure there is: WoW is front and centre. And bear in mind that WotC aren't a software company. They can't do a D&D video game in-house, which means it effectively has to be a licensed product.

Obsidian's Pillars of Eternity ditched the D&D system because they said licensing was too hard

Assuming it was indeed that the licensing was "too hard", and not rather that they couldn't agree on the money, that is indeed a problem.

Bioware ditched D&D for Dragon Age, which has awesome lore, and even spawned its own TTRPG.

Indeed. But Bioware is an example of exactly what the D&D license can do for a developer: take the license, produce a good game, develop a strong reputation, and then market your next game as "from the makers of..." If that game is also a good one, you now have your own IP you can leverage.

Unfortunately for WotC, that's the reality of licensing their IP - it's most useful for up-and-coming studios to use to establish their names on the way to producing their own IP.

 

[DaveDash]

Ryan Dancey said the 3.0e PHB sold 300,000 copies in its first month, and we know that the 5e launch has been bigger (both in profit and also number of units sold). It's also estimated that the 3.0e PHB sold 700k units across its lifetime..

That's pretty good sales then, something to be proud of for a book TTRPG product.

I wish I was seeing the effects of those sales more around here (Australia). Lots of interest in pathfinder still, but it's been much harder for me finding players for 5e than in the 3rd Edition era.

 

[delericho]

That's pretty good sales then, something to be proud of for a book TTRPG product.

Yep. The big question, for me, is whether it will continue to sell - this could just be a very tall very narrow spike in sales, where everyone who's interested has now bought their PHB.

Obviously, I hope that's not the case.

I wish I was seeing the effects of those sales more around here (Australia). Lots of interest in pathfinder still, but it's been much harder for me finding players for 5e than in the 3rd Edition era.

That's unfortunate. I do hope you find some.

 

[Irennan]

Getting into RPGs tends to appeal to higher IQ types, mostly 110+ (though older systems are more playable at median IQs); they also require fairly high literacy. This restricts the market compared to computer games; it always has and it always will. Plus WoTC have tended with 3e & 4e to cater strongly to a crunch-oriented gearhead market; my player who builds battle systems for Lockheed Martin IRL loves 4e D&D!
5e seems a bit more accessible to IQs in the 105+ range, but quite apart from accessibility, the very pastime of fantasy in-character roleplaying generally only seems attractive to a minority of the population, mostly within the higher-IQ part of the population. Nerd is cool, but high IQ nerds will always be in the minority.

The math used in the various systems is just adding/subtracting numbers, really, you just need patience to read the books and options in order to play it, you don't even need to have a fairly good grasp of mathematics...

RPing and crafting characters to a satisfying degree requires creativity, sure, but at the end of the day D&D or RPGs essentially are ''pretend play'' with rules, the main obstacle to new players is that they have to read the books. DMs have it harder, but the main difference is the quantity of work to be done, the real difficulty lies in the creation of a compelling world setting and storylines/plot hooks (assuming that existing ones aren't used).

 

[Celtavian]

That's pretty good sales then, something to be proud of for a book TTRPG product.

I wish I was seeing the effects of those sales more around here (Australia). Lots of interest in pathfinder still, but it's been much harder for me finding players for 5e than in the 3rd Edition era.

It's catching on pretty well where I live. Game stores seem to be selling out of product. I know more than a few groups that have switched including mine. Then again I'm in Washington State where both WotC and Paizo are based. We're definitely a gamer state, video games or otherwise.

I'm not too worried. D&D has always been a niche game that appealed to certain types of people. It will never be mainstream. As long as they can get a large enough number of the billions living on the planet to play, it will always have a market. There's always going to be a market for esoteric hobbies such as TTRPGs. The only problem I could see is if D&D wasn't profitable enough for Hasbro and they shelved the TTRPG to focus on profiting on D&D's intellectual property in other mediums. Even if that happened, other game companies would step up. There will always be a TTRPG market with companies providing games.

 

[Celtavian]

Yep. The big question, for me, is whether it will continue to sell - this could just be a very tall very narrow spike in sales, where everyone who's interested has now bought their PHB.

Obviously, I hope that's not the case.

That's unfortunate. I do hope you find some.

Sales will depend on the quality of support material like splat books to expand options for players and adventures and monster books for DMs. Not much to go on at the moment given the dearth of releases.

 

[Relax]

Sales will depend on the quality of support material like splat books to expand options for players and adventures and monster books for DMs. Not much to go on at the moment given the dearth of releases.

I don't think that's necessarily true. I think WotC is counting on sales being carried by attracting more people to the hobby through licenced products. If people can have fun playing a D&D video game or reading a D&D novel or watching a D&D movie then they may try out the RPG. More splat books will only sell in diminishing numbers to those already playing.

There's also the idea that too many books makes the game unattractive to new players, increasing the likelihood that far fewer splat books will be released this time around...

 

[DaveDash]

It's catching on pretty well where I live. Game stores seem to be selling out of product. I know more than a few groups that have switched including mine. Then again I'm in Washington State where both WotC and Paizo are based. We're definitely a gamer state, video games or otherwise.

I'm not too worried. D&D has always been a niche game that appealed to certain types of people. It will never be mainstream. As long as they can get a large enough number of the billions living on the planet to play, it will always have a market. There's always going to be a market for esoteric hobbies such as TTRPGs. The only problem I could see is if D&D wasn't profitable enough for Hasbro and they shelved the TTRPG to focus on profiting on D&D's intellectual property in other mediums. Even if that happened, other game companies would step up. There will always be a TTRPG market with companies providing games.

I'm sure there will be, and I'm sure D&D the TTRPG will be around for a long time yet, but I don't get the feeling people here are getting my point.

Even if D&D the TTRPG sells really well, it's still becoming more and more niche. In the 90s, I'd say the majority of RPG gamers were playing a D&D product, be it the TTRPG or the excellent CRPG offerings, or whatever.
Today, only a tiny fraction of those who enjoy RPGs are playing D&D, because the market has exploded in other areas that WoTC did not have a good presence in.

To give a more clear example, I'm a Windows Phone user. The number of Windows Phones being sold today totally and utterly dwarfs the number of blackberries and windows mobile phones being sold in the 2000s, but the market share keeps declining. This is not a great position to be in really, and I know that many developers snub WP on market share alone. Even though its selling 40% more YoY its fading away into obscurity.

This is why WoTC are running so lean in the TTRPG market, because while it may be growing, as a percentage of RPG gamers its shrunk massively, and WILL continue to shrink. Even the massive success of 5e will not save it. So they're running lean and investing into those other larger markets where the growth to sustain the brand really is. Especially after being burnt badly by 4e (for reasons).

 

[Celtavian]

I'm sure there will be, and I'm sure D&D the TTRPG will be around for a long time yet, but I don't get the feeling people here are getting my point.

Even if D&D the TTRPG sells really well, it's still becoming more and more niche. In the 90s, I'd say the majority of RPG gamers were playing a D&D product, be it the TTRPG or the excellent CRPG offerings, or whatever.
Today, only a tiny fraction of those who enjoy RPGs are playing D&D, because the market has exploded in other areas that WoTC did not have a good presence in.

To give a more clear example, I'm a Windows Phone user. The number of Windows Phones being sold today totally and utterly dwarfs the number of blackberries and windows mobile phones being sold in the 2000s, but the market share keeps declining. This is not a great position to be in really, and I know that many developers snub WP on market share alone. Even though its selling 40% more YoY its fading away into obscurity.

This is why WoTC are running so lean in the TTRPG market, because while it may be growing, as a percentage of RPG gamers its shrunk massively, and WILL continue to shrink. Even the massive success of 5e will not save it. So they're running lean and investing into those other larger markets where the growth to sustain the brand really is. Especially after being burnt badly by 4e (for reasons).

Are you saying WotC missed the boat like Microsoft did the mobile device market?