The United States of Europe

[Kramodlog]

Maybe a crisis or a threat like Russia. Certainly more stable economies to make it appealing again. Better wealth distribution between rich states and poor ones. Maybe just time. Who knows what it will look like in 100 years with a bunch more of treaties that work slowly toward more unification.

Even if there are people who want a more unified Europe with a central guvernment, you have strong nationalistic sentiments and politicians who will be hesitant to lose their powers.

Pressure from business folks is high though for a unified Europe and some countries like Germany have vested interests in Europe.

 

[Morrus]

some countries like Germany have vested interests in Europe.

Historically, that appears to be the case, yeah.

 

[Kramodlog]

Historically, that appears to be the case, yeah.

*rimshot*

I was talking how the Euro and the lifting of trade barriers let them sell more of their goods to the rest of Europe. Or how the EU not only gives it legitimacy* to act on the international level, but the EU also gives Germany an identity and role.


*Needed because of that adventure with the little Austrian.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Jack Unterweger?

 

[delericho]

Given that the USA was early on more a confederation of independent states than one unified country, sort of kind of like what Europe has become with the European Union, what are the chances that the EU will eventually become a single united nation of states? In the US, it pretty much took a war, (the ACW), to really solidify the nation as one instead of a collection of many. Might the European nations combine peacefully? How far down the road might we see a "President of Europe"?

The EU actually already has a president - currently Jean-Claude Juncker.

Is it possible? Is it impossible?

If possible, what nations would be included? What nations would not be included?

At present it looks more likely that the EU will start to fragment again - Greece may be on the way out, in which case Italy and Spain will likely follow. And the UK are having a referendum on leaving in the next couple of years (pretty sure we'll stay in, though).

But Morrus (and others) have called it dead right. Despite the EU's stated goal of ever-closer union, there is basically zero chance of us ever formally becoming a single coutry. There's just too much history, and too many cultural differences, in the way.

 

[Ryujin]

At present it looks more likely that the EU will start to fragment again - Greece may be on the way out, in which case Italy and Spain will likely follow. And the UK are having a referendum on leaving in the next couple of years (pretty sure we'll stay in, though).

But Morrus (and others) have called it dead right. Despite the EU's stated goal of ever-closer union, there is basically zero chance of us ever formally becoming a single coutry. There's just too much history, and too many cultural differences, in the way.

From where I sit, I think it almost certain that Greece will be cast adrift, to founder on its own. Their failure to meet their perceived responsibilities and subsequent failure should serve as an effective lesson to Italy and Spain, with respect to how they should deal with their obligations.

 

[Deset Gled]

My understanding is that, legally speaking, EU is by no means as unified as even the original 13 states were. So, not really.

No, not even slightly. There are vast differences between a country and a US-style state. The most powerful of which, of course, is the ability to legally declare war, make a foreign policy, sign a treaty, close its borders, levy taxes (although that one's weaker, as most countries have local taxes as well as national ones) etc: Minnesota can't declare war on Argentina. But there are many, many more differences. They're countries which have signed a treaty (or treaties).

IMNSHO, the EU is academically a more powerful form of government than the Articles of Confederation (the original document that formed the USA in 1776, that Bullgrit was referring to). Under both, the nations/states are/were all recognized as sovereign, with full independence on foreign policy and pretty much every example Morrus gives. But under the Articles, the USA had no federal regulation on trade or finances. The states all had their own currencies, and the USA couldn't even tax at the federal level. Conversely, the EU has a unified currency and lots of control over trade.

The one power that the Articles gave that the EU doesn't is the ability to form an army, and it didn't do a very good job of it (there were provisions to ask states for soldiers but the feds couldn't draft any of their own).

But the intents, as well as the global political background, behind the two systems are completely different.

 

[delericho]

From where I sit, I think it almost certain that Greece will be cast adrift, to founder on its own. Their failure to meet their perceived responsibilities and subsequent failure should serve as an effective lesson to Italy and Spain, with respect to how they should deal with their obligations.

I'm pretty sure Germany and France are actually absolutely desperate to avoid casting Greece adrift. Not only does that pretty much guarantee a default of loans owed to those two, but it also would strike a very strong blow against the stability of the Euro.

If there is any way they can avoid it, they will. Indeed, I strongly suspect they'll end up writing off a not-insignificant chunk of Greek debt to do so.

 

[Ryujin]

I'm pretty sure Germany and France are actually absolutely desperate to avoid casting Greece adrift. Not only does that pretty much guarantee a default of loans owed to those two, but it also would strike a very strong blow against the stability of the Euro.

If there is any way they can avoid it, they will. Indeed, I strongly suspect they'll end up writing off a not-insignificant chunk of Greek debt to do so.

There is a long history of more financially viable governments giving 'loans' to less stable ones in order to obtain some sort of political compliance, and then later forgiving these loans. The money may well have been considered a dead loss at the outset. Forcing compliance from two much larger powers, by burning relatively minor Greece, would then be a win for the EU.

 

[delericho]

There is a long history of more financially viable governments giving 'loans' to less stable ones in order to obtain some sort of political compliance, and then later forgiving these loans. The money may well have been considered a dead loss at the outset. Forcing compliance from two much larger powers, by burning relatively minor Greece, would then be a win for the EU.

In this situation, Germany and France pretty much are the EU. They're very much the big powers in this situation. And Angela Merkel (German Chancellor) has considerably more clout than Juncker (EU president).