The United States of Europe

[Bullgrit]

Given that the USA was early on more a confederation of independent states than one unified country, sort of kind of like what Europe has become with the European Union, what are the chances that the EU will eventually become a single united nation of states? In the US, it pretty much took a war, (the ACW), to really solidify the nation as one instead of a collection of many. Might the European nations combine peacefully? How far down the road might we see a "President of Europe"?

Is it possible? Is it impossible?

If possible, what nations would be included? What nations would not be included?

Bullgrit

 

[Dioltach]

Various wars have been fought to bring about a united Europe. The nationalism (or perhaps national identity might be a less connotation-heavy term) is too strong and runs too deep.

 

[Morrus]

Pretty much zero possibility. Nobody wants it. Many countries don't even consider themselves "European" (the UK included). The cultural differences are immense. We don't even speak the same languages.

We've had a lot of warfare over the centuries. Let's hope that's something on the decrease rather than the increase! A mass pan-European 21st century war would be pretty much impossible these days, I imagine.

 

[Janx]

Isn't this basically what the EU is? They just call things different with prime ministers and such.

 

[Umbran]

Isn't this basically what the EU is?

My understanding is that, legally speaking, EU is by no means as unified as even the original 13 states were. So, not really.

 

[Ryujin]

The last decades have seen the breaking apart of nations in Europe; Balkanization, if you will. I think that it's very unlikely that people who don't want to be in those nations would ever want to be in a larger one.

 

[nerfherder]

Isn't this basically what the EU is? They just call things different with prime ministers and such.

No, not at all.

Many have different constitutions, laws, languages, traditions, values, currency (even if many use the Euro).
Just look at the UK & France, which differ in all those things.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

I'm thinking it's got a probability between 0-10% in my lifetime, and I come from pretty long-lived stock: I have a good chance of doubling my 47 years.

 

[Morrus]

Isn't this basically what the EU is? They just call things different with prime ministers and such.

No, not even slightly. There are vast differences between a country and a US-style state. The most powerful of which, of course, is the ability to legally declare war, make a foreign policy, sign a treaty, close its borders, levy taxes (although that one's weaker, as most countries have local taxes as well as national ones) etc: Minnesota can't declare war on Argentina. But there are many, many more differences. They're countries which have signed a treaty (or treaties).

And culturally, too. There's a reason you can be "un-American" but you can't be "un-European". There's an American national identity; there isn't a European one. And that's not even starting on the languages!

The closer analogy is the various Pan American stuff. The US, Canada, Mexico, etc. aren't states in a single big American; they're independent countries with various trade agreements and treaties, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement.

 

[Morrus]

The last decades have seen the breaking apart of nations in Europe; Balkanization, if you will. I think that it's very unlikely that people who don't want to be in those nations would ever want to be in a larger one.

I am no geo-politicist, but I do get the sense that that's the trend - and the long term future. Which is fine, as long as people are able to self-determine.