The mathematical break-even point for turning on Great Weapon Master is whenever you need an 8 or less to hit a creature. Turn GWM on when you need this number or less, and turn it off otherwise. Three caveats:
1) This formula assumes you do 15 avg damage per attack (not counting the GWM +10). For every 2 points less damage you do on average, add 1 to the Target # - for every 2 points more damage, subtract 1 from the Target #.
2) If you are likely to kill a creature w/a hit without using the +10, turn GWM off.
3) Obviously there are certain in-game scenarios that trump the math in determining when to use this feat (such as having only 2 rounds to kill a monster and you should focus more on reliable damage than on max average damage per round).
A PC will not always know what AC a creature has, but knowing this target number at least gives a player a better understanding of when to use it.
THE MATH BEHIND THE TARGET #:
A player will roll an 8 or higher 65% of the time. If he turns GWM on, he will only hit 40% of the time. At 15 damage, GWM OFF scores 65% x 15 = 9.75 dmg, and GWM ON scores 10 dmg.
As the baseline chance to hit goes up, GWM gets better - for instance at 75% chance to hit, the results come in at 75% x 15 dmg = 11.25 dmg for GWM OFF. GWM ON scores 50% x 25 = 12.5.
Not unexpectedly, as the baseline chance to hit goes down, so does GWM's effectiveness.
As for damage variations, each +2 of damage "costs" the GWM ON hero 25% (the increased chance of a miss) x 2 = 0.5 damage. Conversely every pip extra chance of GWM striking gives 5% x 10 = 0.5 extra damage. So every 2 damage affects the target number by 1.
1) This formula assumes you do 15 avg damage per attack (not counting the GWM +10). For every 2 points less damage you do on average, add 1 to the Target # - for every 2 points more damage, subtract 1 from the Target #.
2) If you are likely to kill a creature w/a hit without using the +10, turn GWM off.
3) Obviously there are certain in-game scenarios that trump the math in determining when to use this feat (such as having only 2 rounds to kill a monster and you should focus more on reliable damage than on max average damage per round).
A PC will not always know what AC a creature has, but knowing this target number at least gives a player a better understanding of when to use it.
THE MATH BEHIND THE TARGET #:
A player will roll an 8 or higher 65% of the time. If he turns GWM on, he will only hit 40% of the time. At 15 damage, GWM OFF scores 65% x 15 = 9.75 dmg, and GWM ON scores 10 dmg.
As the baseline chance to hit goes up, GWM gets better - for instance at 75% chance to hit, the results come in at 75% x 15 dmg = 11.25 dmg for GWM OFF. GWM ON scores 50% x 25 = 12.5.
Not unexpectedly, as the baseline chance to hit goes down, so does GWM's effectiveness.
As for damage variations, each +2 of damage "costs" the GWM ON hero 25% (the increased chance of a miss) x 2 = 0.5 damage. Conversely every pip extra chance of GWM striking gives 5% x 10 = 0.5 extra damage. So every 2 damage affects the target number by 1.
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