D&D 5E Analysis on attack odds and the influence of (some) game elements on said odds

[FrogReaver]

Well, I can estimate the odds of getting an additional attack from the GWF bonus action attack. The fact is that the odds of an attack of opportunity does not depend on an decision of mine, that is my main concern, whereas the odds of me making an additional bonus action attack is solely a decision of mine (granted that all this discussion considers that there is an enemy in reach, etc, etc).

So, I still think that including the Polearm Master AoO in DPR calculations eschews the results.

1. Not including the polearm master AoO skews results even worse than including it and being wrong about the chance it occurs.

2. Their are numerous effects that can lower your DPR in a fight. You have no control over any of those effects either. In other words, be consistent. If you can ignore or guestimate the chances of such affects that are out of your control when calculating on turn damage then you can ignore or guestimate the chances of them occurring for off turn damage.

 

[Aeloric1976]

Nor can you estimate the odds of getting an attack off every round of combat or the odds of having disadvantage on your attacks or etc.

You either ignore those important considerations as being to rare to worry about or you try to estimate how often something like the AoO of polearm mastery will occur. I'd estimate 50% of the time. The guy above us estimated 80%.

It's still better to include it with a flawed estimate than to not include it at all.

Well, that's why I made my calculations on a turn basis instead of a round basis. I calculated just the DPR (no reactions), as someone suggested above, or DPT. The name doesn't matter, really, as long as what it means is understood.

 

[Aeloric1976]

Hiya.

Question: So what is the minimum DPT needed in order to be considered "fun"? I'm asking because I'm assuming that was the entire point of all that math. Otherwise, uh, I guess you just like doing math? Not my cup o' joe, to be sure, but to each there own I guess. The only other reason I can think of for doing this much math is just out of curiosity. That's cool. But as @Harsel said above...what was you goal?

^_^

Paul L. Ming

That's a good question.

The goal was to make a more or less precise estimate on how much all these different factor increase DPR (no reactions).

For instance, is it better or worse to make a power attack when I score a hit rolling 10+ in a d20? Is it better or worse to use Hexblade's Curse instead of Hex? How much more DPR can I expect if I roll 3d20 (Elven Accuracy) instead of 2d20 in a Combat Advantage situation?

These were the kind of questions that I wanted to answer. My analysis served as a basis for a excel spreadsheet where I got all those calculations made. I would share this excel spreadsheet, but I don't know how to do it in this forum.

For instance, if a Hexblade/Bladebard attacks (+12 static attack modifier from +5 Cha, +1 magic weapon and +6 Prof Bonus) a target that has a AC 25 (13+ for a hit and 20 for a crit) with a improved pact longbow (4,5 mean variable damage + 6 static damage modifier - +5 from Cha and +1 from magic), his avg dmg per attack is 4,43.

If he attacks with Hexblade's Curse (HBC), his avg dmg per attack is 7,05

If he attack with Hex (H), his avg dmg per attack is 6,00

If with H and HBC, it's 8,80

If with H, HBC and combat advantage (CAdv), it's 14,32

If with H, HBC and elven accuracy (ElvAcc), its 17,85

If with H, HBC, ElvAcc and Bardic Inspiration (BI) (d10), its 21,48

If with H, HBC, ElvAcc, BI (d10) and Blade Flourish (BF) (d10), it's 28,28

If with H, HBC, ElvAcc, BI (d10), BF (d10) and Sharp Attack (SA) (-5 and +10), it's 32,41

It's for these kind of calculations that I made the analysis shown in the first post. I wanted to be sure of the odds and avg results instead of making a more or less educated guess.

 

[FrogReaver]

That's a good question.

The goal was to make a more or less precise estimate on how much all these different factor increase DPR (no reactions).

For instance, is it better or worse to make a power attack when I score a hit rolling 10+ in a d20? Is it better or worse to use Hexblade's Curse instead of Hex? How much more DPR can I expect if I roll 3d20 (Elven Accuracy) instead of 2d20 in a Combat Advantage situation?

These were the kind of questions that I wanted to answer. My analysis served as a basis for a excel spreadsheet where I got all those calculations made. I would share this excel spreadsheet, but I don't know how to do it in this forum.

For instance, if a Hexblade/Bladebard attacks (+12 static attack modifier from +5 Cha, +1 magic weapon and +6 Prof Bonus) a target that has a AC 25 (13+ for a hit and 20 for a crit) with a improved pact longbow (4,5 mean variable damage + 6 static damage modifier - +5 from Cha and +1 from magic), his avg dmg per attack is 4,43.

If he attacks with Hexblade's Curse (HBC), his avg dmg per attack is 7,05

If he attack with Hex (H), his avg dmg per attack is 6,00

If with H and HBC, it's 8,80

If with H, HBC and combat advantage (CAdv), it's 14,32

If with H, HBC and elven accuracy (ElvAcc), its 17,85

If with H, HBC, ElvAcc and Bardic Inspiration (BI) (d10), its 21,48

If with H, HBC, ElvAcc, BI (d10) and Blade Flourish (BF) (d10), it's 28,28

If with H, HBC, ElvAcc, BI (d10), BF (d10) and Sharp Attack (SA) (-5 and +10), it's 32,41

It's for these kind of calculations that I made the analysis shown in the first post. I wanted to be sure of the odds and avg results instead of making a more or less educated guess.

So you created a spreadsheet that calculated the DPR of everything except reaction attack abilities. Most of us would just call that a DPR spreadsheet. Most of us would at least attempt to provide a guestimate on the DPR caused by reaction based abilities as that is the next logical step. Why leave things like Polearm master out of the scope of your analysis just because you can't guarantee it's going to be as accurate as the other abilities. You could even mark such abilities as being based on a few "educated guesses" to differentiate if that's what bothered you with them.

Let me give you one good example of why reaction based abilities need considered. An arcane trickster that casts haste on himself. This allows him to get an on turn attack with sneak attack and an off turn attack with sneak attack by holding his action to use as a reaction. This nearly doubles the arcane tricksters DPR. A haste attack used by the Arcane Trickster on his turn would do very little to his DPR.

 

[Aeloric1976]

So you created a spreadsheet that calculated the DPR of everything except reaction attack abilities. Most of us would just call that a DPR spreadsheet. Most of us would at least attempt to provide a guestimate on the DPR caused by reaction based abilities as that is the next logical step. Why leave things like Polearm master out of the scope of your analysis just because you can't guarantee it's going to be as accurate as the other abilities. You could even mark such abilities as being based on a few "educated guesses" to differentiate if that's what bothered you with them.

Let me give you one good example of why reaction based abilities need considered. An arcane trickster that casts haste on himself. This allows him to get an on turn attack with sneak attack and an off turn attack with sneak attack by holding his action to use as a reaction. This nearly doubles the arcane tricksters DPR. A haste attack used by the Arcane Trickster on his turn would do very little to his DPR.

Ok, if a guesstimate is what you want just add the dmg per attack times your guesstimate once more to get the DPR (reaction AoO included). That works too.

That arcane trickster reaction attack is a very nice idea, thanks for giving that example. However, it's quite different to an AoO because it's not dependent on the opponent's decisions, don't you agree? So, in that respect, I completely agree with you, that ability needs to be considered, yes.

 

[FrogReaver]

Ok, if a guesstimate is what you want just add the dmg per attack times your guesstimate once more to get the DPR (reaction AoO included). That works too.

That arcane trickster reaction attack is a very nice idea, thanks for giving that example. However, it's quite different to an AoO because it's not dependent on the opponent's decisions, don't you agree? So, in that respect, I completely agree with you, that ability needs to be considered, yes.

Everything is dependent on the opponents decisions. The opponent can dodge. The opponent can cast blur. The opponent can move out of attack range. The opponent can knock you to 0 hp. The opponent can cast hold person. The opponent can die and leave you no other opponents in range. It's only a small step further to realize that the opponent deciding to not move toward you is the same kind of decision the opponent makes to do any of these other things.

The point is you are already factoring all those other things in by factoring them out whether consciously or subconsciously. You are doing that with the notion that they don't tend to impact things all that much.

 

[Aeloric1976]

Well, your actions aren't that dependent on your opponents decisions, your reactions, on the other hand.

But, anyway, I guess we reached the end of our arguments about this subject of reaction and its inclusion on dpr estimates.

 

[FrogReaver]

[MENTION=6939509]Aeloric1976[/MENTION]

Maybe you can help me out with DPR calculation I'm struggling with. A high enough level Monk has enough KI that he can flurry of blows just about every turn he wants. An open hand monk gets to attempt a prone whenever one of his flurry of blows attacks hits a target. If the first flurry of blows attacks prones that means his next 3 attacks are at advantage. If the first attack misses or hits and fails to prone then maybe the 2nd flurry of blows attacks prones the enemy and you get 2 attacks at advantage. If all the flurry attacks don't prone then he gets no advantage on any attacks. Can you give a formula for DPR from this?

 

[Aeloric1976]

@Aeloric1976

Maybe you can help me out with DPR calculation I'm struggling with. A high enough level Monk has enough KI that he can flurry of blows just about every turn he wants. An open hand monk gets to attempt a prone whenever one of his flurry of blows attacks hits a target. If the first flurry of blows attacks prones that means his next 3 attacks are at advantage. If the first attack misses or hits and fails to prone then maybe the 2nd flurry of blows attacks prones the enemy and you get 2 attacks at advantage. If all the flurry attacks don't prone then he gets no advantage on any attacks. Can you give a formula for DPR from this?

I believe I can. Give me some time and I'll give it to you. Can you tell me the chance of proning the opponent? I'll consider 50% but if it's different, tell me.

Also, do you want the formula or the results? If you want the results pure and simple, I'll need the monk's stats and the opponent's stats too.

 

[FrogReaver]

formula is ideal. If you want to give an example use a level 12 monk with max dex with 65% to hit the enemy and 60% chance for the flurry of blows attack to prone the enemy.