Waterdeep: Dragon Heist and the old splintering the fan base chestnut...

[Parmandur]

Do you really think so? I'm not so sure. Lots of DMs are worldbuilders first, so lots of them that have at least what they think of as unique settings probably still buy adventures. And I don't think only hardcore, experienced DMs are the only ones using other settings. The core books name drop Eberron and Dark Sun and Planescape. It's not wildly speculative that gamers new to the hobby might be intrigued by such names and go hunting down used books and PDFs.

WotC has provided actual numbers for this in the past: about half of DMs Homebrew, 25% use the FR and 25% will use another setting. Of that first half, about half make all their own stuff, and half will take WotC products and file the serial numbers off. So, their AP strategy is primarily aimed at the quarter of DMs who use the Realms, followed by the quarter who like repurposing books. All other settings combined are a smaller bae, let alone any given setting. But, the conversion is still easy most of the time.

 

[Reynard]

WotC has provided actual numbers for this in the past: about half of DMs Homebrew, 25% use the FR and 25% will use another setting. Of that first half, about half make all their own stuff, and half will take WotC products and file the serial numbers off. So, their AP strategy is primarily aimed at the quarter of DMs who use the Realms, followed by the quarter who like repurposing books. All other settings combined are a smaller bae, let alone any given setting. But, the conversion is still easy most of the time.

Interesting. I wonder what the split would be between FR and another setting -- either a beloved one like Greyhawk or a more niche one like Dark Sun -- if they actively supported more than one. I mean, it's probably not worth the investment for such an experiment, but I think it is an interesting question. I also wonder how many 5E players continue to purchase and use Pathfinder APs and/or setting stuff.

 

[Jester David]

Interesting. I wonder what the split would be between FR and another setting -- either a beloved one like Greyhawk or a more niche one like Dark Sun -- if they actively supported more than one. I mean, it's probably not worth the investment for such an experiment, but I think it is an interesting question. I also wonder how many 5E players continue to purchase and use Pathfinder APs and/or setting stuff.

In a necroed thread from a couple years back, WotC quoted it was 55% homebrew, 35% Realms, 5% Greyhawk, 5% other.
So Dragonlance, Dark Sun, Eberron, and all the rest are just a sliver of that 5%.

But that was two years and millions of new players ago, including the the big bump from Critical Role. I bet if they surveyed again, Realms, Greyhawk, and other would shrink and CR’s Tal’Dorie would have a listing.

 

[Reynard]

In a necroed thread from a couple years back, WotC quoted it was 55% homebrew, 25% Realms, 5% Greyhawk, 5% other.
So Dragonlance, Dark Sun, Eberron, and all the rest are just a sliver of that 5%.

But that was two years and millions of new players ago, including the the big bump from Critical Role. I bet if they surveyed again, Realms, Greyhawk, and other would shrink and CR’s Tal’Dorie would have a listing.

Also two years ago there were no other officially supported settings. Now we at least have Eberron and Ravnica. There must be some reason they have decided now is the time to start diversifying the settings.

 

[Jester David]

Also two years ago there were no other officially supported settings. Now we at least have Eberron and Ravnica. There must be some reason they have decided now is the time to start diversifying the settings.

The DMsGuild only moves a few thousand copies of most its books. I doubt many new fans are being converted, and old fans were likely able to play without.
It’s a drop in the bucket of the player base.

They decided to do a setting because people had been asking for years. But decided that none of the classic settings would sell enough to justify making a book. Because most of the new audience wouldn’t care, and most of the old fans already own those books.

So they did Eberron as a cheap PDF. Recycled art, small staff.
And opted to do Ravnica instead, likely hoping the 55% of D&D players who do home brew will be offset by curious MtG players.

 

[HawaiiSteveO]

I would think that Wizards wants everyone who plays D&D to buy everything they put out for D&D. Not sure how that works out in practice though.

It makes no sense to me that some finance folks in a board room on the west coast are saying "We want 33% of consumers to buy this product."

 

[Enevhar Aldarion]

Just as a bucket of cold water over Eberron fans, the Wayfarer's Guide quickly shot to Platinum on the Guild in a single day. That's a 1000 copies sold. And the Eberron Campaign Setting and Sharn: City of Towers 3e books, as well as the 4e Campaign Setting have both been in the "Hottest Classic Titles" since then.
But...
All three Eberron books are only at Silver. Which is around 100 to 250 sales, spread out over the many years those books those books have been on the Guild.

So while the Wayfarer's Guide to Eberron sold really well, people who purchased it did follow up with other Eberron purchases. It likely sold to people who were already fans and had the books.

Add to this all the people buying this on D&D Beyond as well. I wonder how many have bought it there and on other digital platforms, and how many are unique sales to each site and not overlap sales.

 

[Reynard]

So they did Eberron as a cheap PDF. Recycled art, small staff.

Eberron definitely feels like a gift to fans of that setting. That said, with a dedicated AL season, they may be testing to see whether it has a wider appeal (along with testing the idea of the "early access" PDF, but that is another thread, I think).

And opted to do Ravnica instead, likely hoping the 55% of D&D players who do home brew will be offset by curious MtG players.

It sure is an interesting choice. The most telling thing, I think, will be whether they follow it up at all. Will there be a big hardcover adventure set in Ravnica? Will they have a monster manual or other expansion guide? Or is this a one off?

 

[Parmandur]

The DMsGuild only moves a few thousand copies of most its books. I doubt many new fans are being converted, and old fans were likely able to play without.
It’s a drop in the bucket of the player base.

They decided to do a setting because people had been asking for years. But decided that none of the classic settings would sell enough to justify making a book. Because most of the new audience wouldn’t care, and most of the old fans already own those books.

So they did Eberron as a cheap PDF. Recycled art, small staff.
And opted to do Ravnica instead, likely hoping the 55% of D&D players who do home brew will be offset by curious MtG players.

It seems that they might be testing the waters to see if the Ravnica book can be made attractive to the homebrewing group, as well, with a demphasis on specific Magic-isms and the player crunch. I think the Waterdeep, Sharn (the Eberron AL material will be urban adventure set in Sharn) and Ravnica material coinciding around urban adventure is a deliberate plan.

They are doing Ravnica because that is what the Magic set this is about: they seem to be doing a book instead of a PDF short article because of the crunch potential. Crunch can be repurposed.

 

[Parmandur]

In a necroed thread from a couple years back, WotC quoted it was 55% homebrew, 25% Realms, 5% Greyhawk, 5% other.
So Dragonlance, Dark Sun, Eberron, and all the rest are just a sliver of that 5%.

But that was two years and millions of new players ago, including the the big bump from Critical Role. I bet if they surveyed again, Realms, Greyhawk, and other would shrink and CR’s Tal’Dorie would have a listing.

There are a few percentage points missing in that equation.

Yeah, I am certain the demographics have changed. If anything, probably in a way favorable to their AP strategy. Tal'Dorei is straight "generic" D&D that can accommodate any FR material easily enough, and Mercer will gladly offer suggestions for setting a specific AP in Tal'Dorei if asked on Twitter. Considering how much he contributed to Dragon Heist, I am certain he has specific suggestions for conversion (myself, I say just plop Waterdeep on the Menagerie Coast, make the Drow mafia into Xhorasian spies and go).