D&D 5E Making the most of a Halfling's Lucky feature

Blue

Ravenous Bugblatter Beast of Traal
I'm in the mood to roleplay a martial halfling. I was looking at Lucky and thinking about how I can make the most use of it. More as a fun exercise for what I could do with the character, not because I expect to come up with a DPR-king or anything like that. Lucky doesn't move the needle enough to optimize around it - unless you're doing it for the joy of playing around. Which I am.

For my actual played character I'll be going with whatever will be fun to run, but I had a bunch of thoughts about Lucky and I wanted to have a theoretical discussion with folks. Get your ideas so we can really make a halfling shine regardless if it's the exact one I play.

The follows is me sharing a bit of my journey of discovery, and I hope your comments lead me to unexplored territory I hadn't considered.

So, let's set a foundation: Point buy, official books only, can't rely of getting specific magic items, played levels 1-12. We can talk up to 20 but who knows if a campaign will really reach there.

That last part is a bit telling. You see, my original thought was that the best way to make use of lucky was the most attack roles. Both fighter and warlock's Eldritch Blast can manage 4 without a bonus action. But ... at the levels likely to be played the best they can do is get 3 attacks (without a bonus action) and even there most other martial classes keep up with them until 11th, which is the last 10%-ish of play. So maybe that's not as big of a deal if it's only for a bit of play.

Halfling +2 DEX talks toward finesse or ranged weapons, though +1 CHR for Lightfoot can make warlock for EB (or Hexblade I guess) reasonable.

Bonus action attacks: two weapon fighting with the fighting style is pretty accessible, and damage drop compared to finesse weapons isn't a big deal. Monk also gives a bonus action attack, with the chance to get a second for a Ki. Monk is pretty MAD though, which might take up feat space. Would have to play with it. Polearm Master gives a bigger weapon die and some other goodies, but none of the weapons (even the errata'd in Spear) are finesse, so it would have to go STR.

And really, it seems like chance to hit is big for making the most of Halfling's Lucky. The smaller the die results that miss, the bigger the boolean hit/miss effect on rerolling one of them. If you hit on a 2 you normally have a 1/20 chance to miss. But if you reroll 1s, even if you need to keep it if it's another 1, it reduces that failure to 1/400. Now hitting on a 2+ isn't likely with bounded accuracy, but it's why moving to STR would dilute the talent a noticeable amount.

Advantage is helped by lucky in a different way. It's two rolls, so two chances of Lucky coming into play. But ignoring the double 1 case, the chance that the reroll is the best roll is a little less than half (since we already know the other roll is above a 1). So it triggers twice as much but is only meaningful half as much - not that it's bad, but it's not as huge a help as it might seem on first blush.

The more I think of it though Halfling's Lucky seems to give the most bang for the buck with the smallest chance to miss - that's a big impact vs. without Lucky. Compared to that, the chance of a "standard" 65% chance to hit increasing to 68% or something seems like not that huge of a change even with four attacks a round. Though as the saying goes, Quantity has it own Quality.

If reducing chance to hit is the best case, going ranged with the Archery fighting style is attractive. Sharpshooter with its -5 dilutes Lucky even if normally it's a great feat. Crossbow Expert on the other hand adds more of that quantity. But is the opportunity cost for that worth delaying +2 DEX (which increases chance to hit and damage), or is it only worth it once DEX 20 has been achieved?

And still, could Monk be the way to go? Does two-weapon come on early enough that it's the superior choice over levels 1-12 even if it doesn't finish quite as strong? EB Warlock with Devil's Sight and Darkness? Or, more excitingly, something I haven't thought about at all?

What's your thoughts?
 

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Fenris-77

Small God of the Dozens
Supporter
If you want to maximize the number of ones you reroll, you need to maximize the number of dice you roll. Seems like some Captain Obvious stuff, but that's the place to start. The best way to roll the maximum number of d20s in combat is to maximize attacks and maximize the potential for advantage.

If you want to (mostly) cap the discussion around 12th level you have a lot of room when it comes to base attacks. Only the fighter gets more than one extra, and then only at 11th level, so not a lot of room to dip for synergy. There are lots of options for the base second attack though, so lots of room to play.

One solid option is to dip Ranger 3 and go Gloomstalker for the extra attack in each first round of combat (with the extra d8 damage). If you combine that with Monk and go way of the Shadow you are going to end up with a halfling ninja, which would be friggin' awesome. One the first round of combat you're rocking three monk weapon attacks and three unarmed strikes (Flurry of Blows). Shadow Step lets you manufacture advantage on your first attack, which you use for Stunning Stike, which, if it works, gets you advantage on all your other attacks that turn. Fun.

If you were going to go GloomStalker 3/Monk 9 you might still want to consider archery style, as you can throw monk weapons so long as they have that key word. So daggers mostly, but it's still not useless (call 'em ninja stars if it makes you feel better). Going SS for a feat can still be pretty deadly with thrown weapons, so that's an option.The other option that works ok there for this MC is Dueling Style to get +2 dmg on all your monk weapon attacks.

You will also be making a ton of Stealth rolls with this character, which gives you yet more opportunities for Lucky to kick in.

Another version of the same idea is to go Assassin 3/Monk X for the first round advantage and crits. I find the Gloomstalker build a little more reliable encounter to encounter, but the Assassin build is better nova if you're building that way. Ideally, at that point, you're looking at Fighter 2/Assassin 3/Monk 6-7 and you're playing with a ton of attacks and crits.
 



krustyy

Villager
Bountiful Luck is on pg 73 of XGE, so no need for unearthed arcana.


The UA version is better, though probably because it's imbalanced. XGtE is once per round. UA is whenever.

edit: correction: It uses a reaction so both are only once per round, but the UA version lets you also​ use the lucky feature on yourself during that same duration.
 
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Fenris-77

Small God of the Dozens
Supporter
I think once per round still sounds pretty good. That said, if you can talk the DM into the UA version, more power to you.

*edit* Mostly I'm not going to spend a feat on it. I'd rather take the actual feat called Lucky and double on my luck. If I wanted all y'all to be lucky too I'd use the help action.:cool:

Having just said that, a Halfling Inquisitive with the Lucky feat is starting to have a real Dirk Gently vibe, which could be a very cool character if build right. Now I need to go play with lucky halflings too, damn you eyes.
 
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Esker

Hero
Advantage is helped by lucky in a different way. It's two rolls, so two chances of Lucky coming into play. But ignoring the double 1 case, the chance that the reroll is the best roll is a little less than half (since we already know the other roll is above a 1). So it triggers twice as much but is only meaningful half as much - not that it's bad, but it's not as huge a help as it might seem on first blush.

I think your conclusion -- that Lucky helps about as much when you have advantage as when it doesn't, on average -- is more or less right, but I think the reasoning is missing some pieces. On most rolls the number you get doesn't particularly matter, only whether you meet the DC or not (or, in the case of an attack, whether you crit). So rerolling a 1 and getting a 2 technically increased your roll, but isn't going to make any difference outside the easiest of easy rolls.

On a straight-up roll (no advantage or disadvantage) with a baseline success chance of p, Lucky increases the success chance to p + 0.05 * p, that is by 5% of the baseline success chance. For a typical case where the success chance is around 60% or so, that's an increase of 3%.

For the same DC but with advantage, the non-halfling has a 1 - (1 - p)^2 success chance (for the 60% case without advantage, that's 84%). Applying Lucky, we typically only care about rerolls when we otherwise failed (on attack rolls we can still reroll for another chance at a crit, but that's a separate case). The chance that the first die shows a 1 and the second die is low enough for a failure is 0.05 * (1 - p). The chance that the second die shows a 1 and the first is low enough for a failure is (1 - p) * 0.05. So the chance that we get to reroll in a situation where we would have failed otherwise is approximately 0.10 * (1 - p). (We technically need to reduce that by 0.05^2 since we're double counting the double ones case, but let's set that aside for simplicity). Then, the chance that the reroll nets us a success is just p. So we have a marginal benefit of 0.10*(1-p)*p. This represents an extra factor of 2 * (1 - p) compared to the non-advantage case.

That means for rolls where we need a natural 11 or better to succeed, it's the same benefit that we have without advantage (well, 0.25% less). For more difficult rolls, the benefit is more than that; for easier ones, less. Taking 60% as a typical case, that means the halfling actually benefits slightly less from Lucky when they have advantage, if we measure in terms of the additive increase to the chance of success.

The increase to crit chance is simpler: 0.05^2 in the straight-roll case, and a bit less than twice that in the advantage case. Since going from a miss to a hit is worth more than going from a hit to a crit, the extra 0.05^2 ish crit chance we get with advantage doesn't balance the 0.05^2 that we ignored for simplicity above.
 
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Blue

Ravenous Bugblatter Beast of Traal
I think your conclusion -- that Lucky helps about as much when you have advantage as when it doesn't, on average -- is more or less right, but I think the reasoning is missing some pieces.

Thank you taking my intuitive take on it and showing the mathematics behind. Some people get caught on the "more rolls = more Lucky", but the real test of Halfling's Lucky isn't if it triggers, but how much more often the roll succeeds due to that trigger. People thinking only of the first part prioritize Advantage.
 

Esker

Hero
The disadvantage case is nearly the exact opposite, by the way. Here, a 1 on either die corresponds to a failure, but the reroll only matters if the other die would have been a success. So the chance of getting to make a reroll that matters is just 0.05 * p + p * 0.05 = 0.10*p. Then, the chance that that reroll is a success is p. So the benefit is 0.10^p^2, which is more than the straight roll case when the straight roll would have been more likely to succeed than fail. Since that's arguably the most common case, you could argue that a halfling gets the most out of Lucky when they would be making lots of rolls with disadvantage! Can you think of any builds that pay for benefits by inflicting disadvantage on themselves? How about a character in a highly basilisk-heavy campaign? :)
 

Esker

Hero
Actually, something this analysis implies is that builds that take a lot of penalized rolls with advantage will benefit (relatively) a lot from Lucky, and also that, when advantage is available often, feats become a little better compared to ASIs, since the Lucky benefit does a bit more work to offset the loss in accuracy incurred by foregoing the ASI. That suggests to me that a halfling barbarian with GWM making constant reckless attacks at -5/+10 is in a position to benefit a lot from their race (I mean, other than the fact that they don't get a racial STR bonus). Especially if they take PAM at level 8.
 

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