D&D 5E Legacy and Magic Settings - hypothetical order and likelihood of publication

Mercurius

Legend
With WotC's relatively new focus on publishing settings, there's been tons of speculation on what we'll eventually see coming down the pike. Seeing as it is scattered through a bunch of different threads, I thought it would be worthwhile to start a "meta-thread" discussing the issue as a whole, particularly around speculation with regards to (hypothetical) order and likelihood of publication. I know less about the Magic settings, but will give it a shot based upon a cursory scan of the settings.

LEGACY SETTINGS
Definite: Forgotten Realms (via adventure paths).
It seems a foregone conclusion that we'll continue to see the Realms as the default setting. Presumably they'll eventually expand beyond the North, probably into the Dalelands/Cormyr/Moonsea region, possiblly Lantan, Thay, Anauroch, etc.

Likely/Sooner-than-later: Dark Sun, Planescape. These just seem to be the most likely to happen in the next few years, both because they offer something new to the 5E line that are intrinsic parts of the game (psionics, sword & sorcery, planes), and also because people are obviously clamoring for them--at least the vocal minority of quasi-grognards.

Maybe-to-probably/At some point: Forgotten Realms (campaign book), Dragonlance, Greyhawk, Spelljammer, Ravenloft, Al-Qadim. All for different reasons. FR may never get another big setting book, although is definite for further coverage in adventure books. Dragonlance and Greyhawk both seem quite possible, although it wouldn't surprise me at all if WotC leaves them untouched for a variety of reasons--but I would guess that we'll see something. Spelljammer is most likely to be given a spot in some kind of planar book, and less likely to receive its own treatment. Ravenloft will probably be revisited, but less likely as its own setting (my guess is that they'd rather do Innistrad and not both). Al-Qadim seems ripe for an update, but I could see it through an adventure book with a big setting section, but it might belong in the next category...

Unlikely/Probably never: Mystara, Birthright, Kara-Tur, Nentir Vale. I just see all of these in an unlikely category, but I could also see scenarios for each to surface in some form or fashion. For instance, you'd think WotC would eventually do some kind of Oriental/Asian Adventures book, but would they do Kara-Tur or something else? Birthright is ideal for kingdom-building, so would be an obvious choice if they expand in that direction, but probably not for years to come. I suppose I could see a "Return to Nentir Vale" product at some point, but wouldn't bet on it. Mystara is beloved by people who grew up on BECMI, but I think gets crowded out by other kitchen sink legacy settings. I could see it receiving a minor treatment in some kind of 50th anniversary product, but unlikely a full setting book.

In the Vault: Jakandor, Ghostwalk, Council of Wyrms, Blackmoor, Pelinore, Rokugan. I think these are all essentially dead settings and won't be revisited by WotC. I suppose I could see Blackmoor given minor treatment in a hypothetical 50th anniversary product, but not as a complete setting. For some reason Council of Wyrms gives me pause, though, as it would make a great adventure-setting box set. Hmm...

MAGIC SETTINGS
I really don't know, but from what I've gathered, Zendikar and Innistrad seem most likely, followed by a group that includes Dominaria, Kaladesh, Ixalan, and others. But I really have no clue as to what is most popular or recent or upcoming; Zendikar and Innistrad get mentioned a lot, and Dominaria is the classic, so seems probable at some point.

What do you think? Which settings do you think are likely, maybe, unlikely and in the vault?
 

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Mercurius

Legend
I don't know why folks are sitting on the Magic setting Tarkir. It's got two splinter timelines, novel factions styled on cultures that often don't get a ton of air time in western fantasy, and a bunch of frikkin' dragons.

Don't know who you mean by "folks," but I don't know enough about Magic to be sitting on it. Sounds intriguing.

MAGIC:
Kamigawa
would be a logical base if they decide to do a Far-East style setting.

That makes sense as an alternate to Kara-Tur. It seems more likely that they'd do Kamigawa, a new setting to D&D, than resuscitate Kara-Tur, which would probably require a lot of re-working, and they might just prefer to leave it in the vault.

This would also extend to some of the Middle Eastern-and-desert themed Magic settings (Kaladesh, Amonkhet) vs. Al-Qadim, or Innistrad vs. Ravenloft, or Ixalan vs. Maztica.
 
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Mercurius

Legend
Another angle on this, and a sub-conscious guideline for my categorizations, is that I think the likelihood of publication is the result of a combination of factors:

  1. How beloved it is by the fan-base, as a classic to the D&D heritage.
  2. Whether it incorporates a major aspect of the D&D rules that hasn't yet been explicated.
  3. To what degree it fits the current ethos of D&D and/or could be translated to the current cultural-generational cohort of younger Millenials.
  4. Whether or not it has a serious advocate in the WotC D&D design team (that is, someone who loves the setting and wants to make it happen).

Dark Sun and Planescape seem to really fulfill the first three criteria (I have no idea about the fourth). GH and Dragonlance fit the 1st, less-so the 2nd and questionably the 3rd (although I think a well-done War of the Lance re-boot could be well-marketed, so DL gets a slight edge over GH, in my mind). Mystara also fits the third, but fares more poorly in the 2nd and 3rd. Etc.
 

Count_Zero

Adventurer
  1. How beloved it is by the fan-base, as a classic to the D&D heritage.
  2. Whether it incorporates a major aspect of the D&D rules that hasn't yet been explicated.
  3. To what degree it fits the current ethos of D&D and/or could be translated to the current cultural-generational cohort of younger Millenials.
  4. Whether or not it has a serious advocate in the WotC D&D design team (that is, someone who loves the setting and wants to make it happen).

Spelljammer fits the 2nd and 4th - not so sure about 1st and 3rd. They teased it in Dungeons of the Mage, so it might fit 3?
 

Parmandur

Book-Friend
So, in regards to Magic Settings, I think they would only do a book if it coincides somewhat with the card game doing that Setting. Theros isn't exact, since the Theros card set dropped in March, and now the book isn't out until July, but close enough for some synergy. The current card set, Ikoria, is a new Setting, and I doubt that WotC will bring D&D there immediately. Later this year, there is a Zendikar card set, which is one of the most popular Magic Settings and very well suited to D&D Adventures, indeed, being the first Magic Setting to get official D&D support from WotC thanks to James Wyatt. I could see a Zendikar book coming out next year sometime, playing off of the metaplot situation after the events of the card set.

For Magic Settings in general, Mark Rosewater (the Big Kahunna of Magic R&D) has a scale he maintains for transparency with the fans, called the Rabiah Scale, that measures how likely the card game is to return to the Setting. The Setting of Rabiah is a 10, which means pretty much it will never ever happen, while Dominaria and Ravnica are 1, guaranteed to happen again multiple times. This seems to be a generally good indicator of how likely we are to see a D&D tie-in, being high on the Rabiah scale. Ravnica is a 1, and Theros is a 3. The other Settings with numbers above 4 are Dominaria, Zendikar, and Innistrad. Any Setting of 6 or above seems plausible for actually happening, and fitting for a D&D tie-in.

The narrative description of the numbers is as follows:

  • Level 1: Will definitely see again - Dominaria, Ravnica, and Innistrad
  • Level 2: Will definitely see again, but not necessarily right away - Zendikar
  • Level 3: Will most likely do again, probably many times - Theros
  • Level 4: Will most likely do again, but they have issues that make them less of a guarantee - Ikoria and Eldraine
  • Level 5: We need to find the right place to bring it back, but I'm optimistic - Alara, Amonkhet, Kaladesh, Lorwyn, New Phyrexia, Tarkir
  • Level 6: We need to find the right place to bring it back, but I'm a little less optimistic
  • Level 7: It's unlikely to return, but possible if the right environment comes along
  • Level 8: It's unlikely to return, but possible if the stars align
  • Level 9: I never say never, but this would require a minor miracle
    - Level 10: I never say never, but this would require a major miracle
 
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Mercurius

Legend
Spelljammer fits the 2nd and 4th - not so sure about 1st and 3rd. They teased it in Dungeons of the Mage, so it might fit 3?

Yeah, it is a bit of an outlier and hard to pin-point. It is beloved by a group of older fans, but probably a relatively small group--presumably smaller than, say, Dark Sun or Planescape.

It incorporates a different aspect of the rules, but not a "major" one like Dark Sun (psionics) or Planescape (the planes).

It may work for the current climate as a kind of retro-80s thing, but is a bit risky. The 80s-90s have lots of classic cultural tropes that are beloved by young people today, but there's also late 80s/early 90s fashion and Kenny Gee. Gross.

As for 4, it has to be justifiable with the first three.

So my sense is that we'll see Spelljammer in some form or fashion, but probably not as--or at least not at first--its own product. That is why I suggest it as an alternate approach to the planes, possibly as an appendix or chapter, or part of an "Alternate Cosmologies" section in a Manual of the Planes book.
 

Mercurius

Legend
So, in regards to Magic Settings, I think they would only do a book if it coincides somewhat with the card game doing that Setting. Theros isn't exact, since the Theros card set dropped in March, and now the book isn't out until July, but close enough for some synergy. The current card set, Ikoria, is a new Setting, and I doubt that WotC will bring D&D there immediately. Later this year, there is a Zendikar card set, which is one of the most popular Magic Settings and very well suited to D&D Adventures, indeed, being the first Magic Setting to get official D&D support from WotC thanks to James Wyatt. I could see a Zendikar boom coming out next year sometime, playing off of the metaplot situation after the events of the card set.

For Magic Settings in general, Mark Rosewater (the Big Kahunna of Magic R&D) has a scale he maintains for transparency with the fans, called the Rabiah Scale, that measures how likely the card game is to return to the Setting. The Setting of Rabiah is a 10, which means pretty much it will never ever happen, while Dominaria and Ravnica are 1, guaranteed to happen again multiple times. This seems to be a generally good indicator of how likely we are to see a D&D tie-in, being high on the Rabiah scale. Ravnica is a 1, and Theros is a 3. The other Settings with numbers above 4 are Dominaria, Zendikar, and Innistrad. Any Setting of 6 or above seems plausible for actually happening, and fitting for a D&D tie-in.

The narrative description of the numbers is as follows:

  • Level 1: Will definitely see again - Dominaria, Ravnica, and Innistrad
  • Level 2: Will definitely see again, but not necessarily right away - Zendikar
  • Level 3: Will most likely do again, probably many times - Theros
  • Level 4: Will most likely do again, but they have issues that make them less of a guarantee - Ikoria and Eldraine
  • Level 5: We need to find the right place to bring it back, but I'm optimistic - Alara, Amonkhet, Kaladesh, Lorwyn, New Phyrexia, Tarkir
  • Level 6: We need to find the right place to bring it back, but I'm a little less optimistic
  • Level 7: It's unlikely to return, but possible if the right environment comes along
  • Level 8: It's unlikely to return, but possible if the stars align
  • Level 9: I never say never, but this would require a minor miracle
-Level 10: I never say never, but this would require a major miracle


Thanks, this is very helpful. I would guess, then, that Zendikar, Innistrad, and Dominaria are as close to definite--and possibly in that order. Doesn't Zendikar lend itself well to high level play? Hmm...

The Levels 4-5 settings are all possibilities, but very unlikely to be in the works.

Where does Ixalan fit?
 

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