Inclusion at the cost of Generalization

[ccs]

In all honesty, I don't think there's any formula for creating something that has mass appeal.

You're quite wrong on this.

We can analyze something that's popular in an attempt to figure out why its appealing, but we can't necessarily take what we learned, apply it to a game,

We most certainly can. And do.

and expect it to be popular.

Yes, you can.

Even the experts don't always know what's going to be a hit. Eight publishers passed on Harry Potter, early MTV was hesitant to play hip hop videos mostly limiting it to Yo! MTV Raps at first, and almost everyone involved in filming the original Star Wars thought the movie was, to quote Mark Hamil, "a turkey."

True. None of the experts get it right all the time. That's not possible. Especially on the leading edge of a change. But they do get it right plenty of times. Especially after that change has been identified. And that's because there are formulae, they Can be (and are) applied. Often. Because these people, the experts? They are not guessing in the dark/throwing darts at a board, etc.

 

[Umbran]

You're quite wrong on this.

So, why isn't every single toy the equivalent of a Cabbage Patch Kid or Beanie Baby? If we could just analyze, and know with certainty what will be popular, then every movie would be a success. Every book a best seller, every restaurant a success.

De gustibus non est disputandum - There is no accounting for taste.

 

[MGibster]

You're quite wrong on this.

Fantastic. I have your word for it so it must be true!

True. None of the experts get it right all the time. That's not possible. Especially on the leading edge of a change. But they do get it right plenty of times. Especially after that change has been identified. And that's because there are formulae, they Can be (and are) applied. Often. Because these people, the experts? They are not guessing in the dark/throwing darts at a board, etc.

They're not guessing but they can't be sure of success until the final product is released. Like I said, eight publishers passed on Harry Potter because they didn't believe it would sell. When it was finally published in 1997, nobody predicted it would become a billion dollar franchise and incorporated into a popular theme park. Do they get it right plenty of times? Sure. They make a profit. But it's not like they can just automatically make something that has mass appeal.

 

[macd21]

So, why isn't every single toy the equivalent of a Cabbage Patch Kid or Beanie Baby? If we could just analyze, and know with certainty what will be popular, then every movie would be a success. Every book a best seller, every restaurant a success.

Not really. While such analyses can’t tell you which toy is going to be the next Beanie Baby, it can tell you what might. You take a cute toy, employ a given marketing strategy for $X = Y% chance you get the next big thing. That % is usually pretty low, however, so most toys aren’t trying to be the next big thing. Instead they go for an easier (and usually cheaper) strategy - something that analysis indicates won’t be the Christmas number 1 seller, but will make a good profit.

But the analysis can only do so much. It can tell you what type of movie audiences will pay money to see, but that only works if you make a good movie. It can tell you what your restaurant should look like and what food will be popular, but if your chef is incompetent and your staff are rude, that’s not going to help. And even if you don’t screw that up, you can still fail because you suck at budgeting (and probably spent a fortune on a market analysis consultant).

 

[Thirteenspades]

But the analysis can only do so much. It can tell you what type of movie audiences will pay money to see, but that only works if you make a good movie. It can tell you what your restaurant should look like and what food will be popular, but if your chef is incompetent and your staff are rude, that’s not going to help. And even if you don’t screw that up, you can still fail because you suck at budgeting (and probably spent a fortune on a market analysis consultant).

Or you could play the bad guy and manipulate people into a trend. All you need is power and to know what you’re doing.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

There ARE formulas. They’re not guarantors of success, but they DO give you an idea of your odds of success.

But you still have to make your product meet certain minimum standards; you still have to make sure your analysis is leading you to the correct conclusions; you still have to put your product in the right place with the right advertising message. Otherwise, your odds of success turn upside down.

 

[MNblockhead]

You obviously never played Enforcers which was a point based superhero game set in the 21st century that came out in the late 1980s. The game advertised itself as easy and fast, but during character generation you had to use square roots to come up with some of the statistics. The game included instructions for how to set up a Lotus spreadsheet to make character generation easy! I've played plenty of games with bad rules over the years but this one was the most offensive.

Wow, hilarious. I HAVE to find a copy of this AND a late 80s version of Lotus 1-2-3.

 

[MNblockhead]

Oh, and let's not forget Cyborg Commando!

No. Let's do.

I played Cyborg Commando. Once. At Gen Con, I think the year it was released, I participated in a short walk-through of character creation and some sample play, run by Gary Gygax.

Only played it because I didn't want to just ask Gary to sign some D&D stuff I had without listening to his pitch. And, come-on, it was a chance to play a bit and talk with Gary Gygax. But I sure didn't buy that game.

In hindsight I regret it, a signed copy of Cyborg Commando would be awesome as a collectible. But I was in high school, and was paying for Gen Con based on summer-job money. I wasn't thinking of what nearly 50-year-old me would value.

 

[Thirteenspades]

So, why isn't every single toy the equivalent of a Cabbage Patch Kid or Beanie Baby? If we could just analyze, and know with certainty what will be popular, then every movie would be a success. Every book a best seller, every restaurant a success.

De gustibus non est disputandum - There is no accounting for taste.

Just look at McDonald's. I mean, Ray Croc McDonalds. Benefiting not from healthiness or good food but price and marketting.
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Spoiler

 

[Thirteenspades]

They're not guessing but they can't be sure of success until the final product is released. Like I said, eight publishers passed on Harry Potter because they didn't believe it would sell. When it was finally published in 1997, nobody predicted it would become a billion dollar franchise and incorporated into a popular theme park. Do they get it right plenty of times? Sure. They make a profit. But it's not like they can just automatically make something that has mass appeal.

Though the stupid pointless Superhero movie formula works a lot.