Richard Branson’s space flight

aco175

Legend
I love the PR bit that Bezos' people came out with about it not being a competition, but if it were, I would point you to the line that most scientists look at as the actual line for outer space and how the other guy is not actually crossing it- but my guy will be crossing it.

Space tourism; Shouldn't we have someplace to go besides space? I'll be dead by the time we have a hotel on the moon, not that we have been back there in 60 years.
 

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Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
Supporter
Could you explain this opinion further? I was under the impression that there were a number of benefits to this type of launch (the US has used it for experimental designs before, and I believe it was one consideration for the shuttle). Also, why is the entire program dependent on that one aspect of the design?

To address the latter first, I think all of Virgin's launch plans are based on the "take it up on a plane and launch it up from there" mode. So, that one aspect is pretty central to their program.

There are a number of benefits to this kind of launch, and Cosmic Girl took Launcher One up and they successfully reached orbit and deployed a bunch of cubesats for NASA's Educational Launch of Nanosatellites mission back in January. I know of no technical reason why this cannot be an economical approach for smaller payload launches. The suborbital human launch business is for show.
 

slobster

Hero
Could you explain this opinion further? I was under the impression that there were a number of benefits to this type of launch (the US has used it for experimental designs before, and I believe it was one consideration for the shuttle). Also, why is the entire program dependent on that one aspect of the design?
So with assisted launch, there are a number of real advantages, and there are some advantages that turn out to be overhyped or undercut by some disadvantages that the tech has. TLDR, it has a niche which includes gimmick "space" tourism and maybe small or specialized satellites, but doesn't look likely to be very useful as a mainstay of spaceflight for the coming decades.

I'll start with the good. Assisted launch involves putting your rocket on a plane and then flying it up as high as you can before you actually launch the rocket. This means that instead of needing specialized rocket launch facilities (of which there are maybe a couple dozen in the world), you can use any airport of sufficient size. You can also fly your rocket to the optimum location before launch. Third and maybe a little surprisingly, the fact that you fly above most weather before launching means that you are not at the mercy of weather conditions, which accounts for delays and risk for probably most traditional launches. Assisted launches are also better at launching at short notice.

All this combines to give assisted launch great flexibility and the capacity to launch more times of the year, into more orbits, from pretty much anywhere you want to go. For very specific small packages which need unusual orbits, this can be a boon. For national security packages that need to be able to launch quickly, for example if your opponent has anti-satellite weapons and you want to be able to redeploy on short notice into any necessary orbit, this is especially huge.

Now with the overhyped. Some people bring up that launch assist allows you to launch your rocket at a higher altitude and with some velocity already imparted by the plane it is based from. This essentially uses the plane as a pseudo-first stage for the rocket. This is all true, but it turns out that the boost given by the plane is miniscule compared to the fuel needed to actually get a payload into orbit. A plane flying at 14 km above the planet at 300 meters per second just isn't that big a deal when you need to get up to 200+ km and 30,000 meters per second in order to keep the payload from falling right back down. And you do pay for the ability to launch from a plane by needing to make the rocket much smaller. Generally, in rocketry, the bigger your rocket the more efficient it is, for a bunch of reasons including the square cube law and aerodynamics which we won't get into here. Suffice it to say that using a plane as your sort-of first stage ends up being a bad deal compared to just using an actual rocket as your first stage if your goal is to get mass into orbit as cheaply as possible.

On top of all this for Virgin Galactic specifically, the vehicle never actually reaches orbit. You go up, you freefall for a few minutes and experience apparent null gravity, and then you land. You can never for instance dock with a space station, or transfer to another craft, or spend any longer than a few minutes in "technically space according to the airforce". So while it's an interesting novelty, it will never be able to hook in to what many of us anticipate will be a future space infrastructure, including civilian space stations or orbital industrial facilities or transfer flights to the moon and beyond. So in that way it looks likely to be a dead end, barring some serious improvement in the technology.

Hope that makes sense, and sorry for the long post!
 


Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
Supporter
Meh. I can think of better ways to spend that kind of money. I bet they could too, if they cared enough to try.

You... might be very wrong about that.

I say this because NASA, with it's $22 billion dollar budget, returns more to the economy than it costs. It more than pays for itself - NASA effectively creates wealth with spinoff technologies and the businesses that surround them.

Now, when SpaceX, Virgin, or Blue Origin develops new technologies, who do you think owns the patents? Who gets that spinoff wealth?
 


CleverNickName

Limit Break Dancing
You... might be very wrong about that.

I say this because NASA, with it's $22 billion dollar budget, returns more to the economy than it costs. It more than pays for itself - NASA effectively creates wealth with spinoff technologies and the businesses that surround them.

Now, when SpaceX, Virgin, or Blue Origin develops new technologies, who do you think owns the patents? Who gets that spinoff wealth?
I mean, if we're gonna go there, I can think of better ways to boost the economy too.
 

J.Quondam

CR 1/8
Billionaires are gonna billionaire. If a few want to do some productive like spaceflight with some spinoff benefits, more power to them. It might not be optimal for society, but it's better than other options. At least they're not dumping all their wealth into mining bitcoin.
 

Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
Supporter
I mean, if we're gonna go there, I can think of better ways to boost the economy too.

Yeah, well, everybody and their maiden aunt has ideas on how to improve the economy.

In 2019, on a budget of $21.5 billion, NASA generated over $64.3 billion in economic output. NASA's output was triple the investment. While there will be a point where that doesn't scale up, I daresay you'll be hard-put to find something that triples your money at scale.

However, that is neither here nor there - Richard Branson, Elon Musk, and Jeff Bezos are not, and should not be expected to, focus their efforts on the economy as a whole. If you have an investment that will, say, quadruple their money, I'm sure they'll be interested.
 


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