Sure. They could not narrate that they pay for their drink! Also, slight of hand could be used to fool a PC to think that an object is in another place where it actually is. So that would in effect affect how the PC thinks.
Wait, I'm not following you here. Getting their pocket picked would require the PC to buy the NPC a drink? What?
As to your second example, I gave one very similar to that up-thread, in disagreeing with
@clearstream that "Intimidate" and "Persuade" were somehow special cases, or that it's even just about Charisma skills. And the hypothetical case of an NPC using sleight-of-hand to force a player to pretend their character believes an object is in a certain place is a perfect example of that.
I'm not even sure what is the distinction you're talking about. First it was between spells and skills, but now it is something else.
Sorry, I thought that small leap of logic was obvious, but I will spell it out:
1. In the first case I was talking about the distinction between a spell that has a specific, defined effect (overriding more general rules), and the default play loop, that sometimes involves ability checks, which sometimes involve skill proficiencies, and do not have specific effects defined.
2. In the second case I was talking about the distinction between NPC actions which impose a game-state effect on the PC that is narrated by the DM, and NPC actions that have some effect...not a defined mechanical condition...that the DM has made up and requires the player to narrate in a certain way.
So, no, I'm not shifting my argument, I'm giving you multiple ways to see the distinction between two categories of actions.