D&D 5E Average skill modifiers by level?


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I don’t know about what’s average, as that would be entirely dependent on the group and their tendencies. But, the assumption 5e’s math is built around is +3 in the relevant stat at 1st level, increasing by +1 at ASI levels. That means:

LevelModifier
1st-3rd+5
4th+6
5th-7th+7
8th+8
9th-12th+9
13th-16th+10
17th++11

Note that, thanks to the ability score cap of 20, the expected modifier doesn’t increase at 12th, 16th, and 19th levels, which gives folks who started with less than 16 in the relevant score and/or took Feats at instead of ASIs at 4th/8th a chance to catch up.

This is just ability mod + proficiency right?

I have to admit I haven't been keeping up with all the 5e material. Is it still true that there are not many ways to increase these numbers with magic items and spells like Guidance and Skill Empowerment? Or are they more prevelent now?

At what levels would you assume that a party could reliable "juice" the numbers a bit and by how much? (ignoring expertise because I agree this should break the curve)
 


This is just ability mod + proficiency right?
Correct. That’s the assumption 5e’s base math uses, so that bonuses from magic items, spells, etc. are actual bonuses, improving your chances of success, instead of taxes, required to keep up with the baseline.
I have to admit I haven't been keeping up with all the 5e material. Is it still true that there are not many ways to increase these numbers with magic items and spells like Guidance and Skill Empowerment? Or are they more prevelent now?

At what levels would you assume that a party could reliable "juice" the numbers a bit and by how much? (ignoring expertise because I agree this should break the curve)
There are some pretty reliable ways to get bonuses - guidance and bardic inspiration being two of the most prevalent examples. I wouldn’t recommend tweaking the math to accommodate these, but if you want to, guidance is worth +2.5 on average and is available from 1st level. Bardic inspiration is worth an average of +3.5 at first level, increasing by 1 at 8th, 10th, and 15th levels. There might be some other sources of bonuses, but again, being able to exceed the baseline difficulty is the point of such features, so I would assume them in your math if I were you.
 

For sure. Personally I’m not a big fan of porting skill challenges to 5e. They were great for 4e (once they fixed the math, and if you knew how to run them right, which admittedly I didn’t at the time), but for 5e I prefer a different approach. Still, for those who want a 5e skill challenge system, I hope these numbers are helpful.
13th Age montages work pretty much as-written if you change the DCs. But they're not quite the same thing.
 


This is what I use when I am examining mechanics:

LevelPBAbilTOTAL
1235
2235
3235
4246
5347
6347
7347
8347
9448
10448
11448
12459
135510
145510
155510
165510
176511
186511
196511
206511

It differs slightly from some because I don't assume +5 ability mod until level 12, while others assume you jump your main score at 4th and 8th to get to 20 ASAP.
 

Why would you assume the math needs to be different for skill challenges as opposed to single checks?

It's likely different to serve it's purpose within the skill challenge and have the math work.

On purpose-- The way I run skill challanges is in "cinematic mode". Different than combat enounter mode or general exploration mode. Skill checks represent "strategy actions" that get you closer to your goal and we don't worry about the details of exactly how many feet you can jump, etc. as long as the decription fits within our shared understanding of what somone can do in that "Tier of play". A successful skill check means you get closer to the goal, a failure means no progress and possibility a complication (which might change the nature of what skills are useful). So if we are 5th level and chasing someone through a crowded city, a player could say "I climb up to the roof tops and jump from roof to roof to try to get ahead of him" (Tier appropriate, yes). "I try to convince the 2 city guards near us that the man just stole a valuble gem from a nearby merchant and they should join us in the pursuit" (Tier appropriate, yes). The check represents the success of that strategic action and movement toward the goal but not each individual jump or balance or change in whatever. The fiction changes as we go along perhaps opening up and closing down some skills that are appropriate.

X successful strategy actions before Y failures or X successful before 3 rounds (different math/system) results in reaching the goal (capture the person they were chasing in this case).

The structure is there to provide closure to the scene that doesn't rely on DM fiat and to provide math structure that ensures a challenge that is neither trivially easy nor impossible over multiple checks (there are of course situations that are both easy and impossible -- but don't use skill challenges for them).

As a DM, I need to set some baseline DCs where you know that say a 5th level party that is likely to have +7 mods has say a 65%-70% of success IN TOTAL over the X checks. Or perhaps assume out of a party of 4, 2 have +7 mods for a physical challenge like this and 2 have +3 mods (either proficiency or high ability but not both). You can use creative uses of non physical skills in a physical challenge but perhaps only once a skill per skill challenge per party to let the physical skill people shine a little (wheras in a social skill challenge you might be able to cleverly use Athetics but again only once a skill challenge per party).

Then I can modify up and down that baseline depending on whether I think the challenge is above or below level so to speak. And characters with skill resources can handle above level challenges as well.


**

On math -- Because it involves evaluating the results after a set of multiple checks, this likely requires different DCs.

It's like those DMs when I was a kid that made us make 5 consecutive successful stealth checks to sneak around. Let's say you have a 70% chance of succeeding at a single check. If you have to make 5 in a row your probability goes down to 17%

Anyway IMO it's fine to have different DCs because they represent different things. You can even call them something different, Skill Challenge Checks -- SCCs, so as not to confuse people. The checks simply represent ability to move closer to the goal using that "Skill mode" as means to the end.

I'm trying to set the SCCs at the right level so I can run these cinematic skill challenges and know that I'm not making it impossibly hard or trivially easy.

It's a very gamist structure but I find that it creates interesting non combat "scenes" and if the math is fair you can attach fairly meaningful story consequences to the skill challenges. For instance, you could have a wilderness skill challenge where you are trying to push your party to get through the wilds before an orc raiding party reaches a town. As a DM I set the DCs where I know there is ~65% chance of them getting through as I think getting though this wilderness fast is an on level challenge. Over 12 skill checks over 3 days and some memorable obstacles, they fail. They arrive too late and the town has been razed, one of their friends was killed ,and there are indications the orcs took prisoners. It's an easy way to abtract this non combat challenge AND put some non arbitrary resolution to pursuit of the goal.

See Stalker's Obsidian system for 4e for a more indepth look at one kind of skill challenge and the math for 4e.

 

For sure. Personally I’m not a big fan of porting skill challenges to 5e. They were great for 4e (once they fixed the math, and if you knew how to run them right, which admittedly I didn’t at the time), but for 5e I prefer a different approach. Still, for those who want a 5e skill challenge system, I hope these numbers are helpful.

Why do you prefer a different approach if you liked them in 4e? Seems like the 5e skill system is just as abstract (maybe more) then 4e and that it would work just as well with skill challenges (pending the right DCs)?

I certainly understand not always using skill challenges as I think they can be overused and misused.

I tend to only use them when I think its a challenge that the whole party should be tackling and when there is a significant story reward / penalty that is up for grabs.
 

Why do you prefer a different approach if you liked them in 4e? Seems like the 5e skill system is just as abstract (maybe more) then 4e and that it would work just as well with skill challenges (pending the right DCs)?

I certainly understand not always using skill challenges as I think they can be overused and misused.

I tend to only use them when I think its a challenge that the whole party should be tackling and when there is a significant story reward / penalty that is up for grabs.
4e and 5e are different games with different approaches to action resolution. Skill challenges worked in 4e where the players were encouraged to initiate skill checks and the DM was encouraged to say yes unless there was a compelling reason to say no. I don’t think they work as well in 5e where the players describe what their characters do and the DM determines the results, calling for a die roll if necessary to resolve uncertainty in the outcome. Skill challenges wouldn’t flow right in that action resolution framework, and the meta-structure of the skill challenge just doesn’t feel necessary to me in that context. The exploration rules fill that role for me in a way that is better integrated into 5e’s core gameplay loop than skill challenges would.
 

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