D&D (2024) Does anyone else think that 1D&D will create a significant divide in the community?


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To be fair, I don't think 5E, onednd, 5.5E, or anniversary edition whatever they are going to call it will be as different as PF1 and PF2 are.
Sure. But to go farther back, 1e to 2e caused a divide, and they were basically compatible. Even 4e essentials caused a divide.

Some might point to 3.5. It didn't seem to cause much of a rift, but things changed with its launch. That fan base seemed to get smaller--and started buying a lot of plastic minis, 3 party producers focused on their own games, the whole feel was different. Arguably things weren't really the same, until 5e.
 

Sure. But to go farther back, 1e to 2e caused a divide, and they were basically compatible. Even 4e essentials caused a divide.

Some might point to 3.5. It didn't seem to cause much of a rift, but things changed with its launch. That fan base seemed to get smaller--and started buying a lot of plastic minis, 3 party producers focused on their own games, the whole feel was different. Arguably things weren't really the same, until 5e.
Obviously, there will always be a split and contention: we even see that with Xanathar's or Tasha's additions. But the question will be if the split ends up being significant: based on what we've seen so far, it seems doubtful.
 

We've had edition changes before. We know what scope that won't cause a major rift (everything except changing to/from 4e), and what will cause a major rift (changing to and maybe from 4e). This isn't an judgement on 4e, just an acknowledgement that it was different enough to cause a rift. Everything else sure there will be some who lag behind, but no real "player rift".

As this is looking like the change of a half edition like 3.0 to 3.5, not even a full edition change.

Realistically, it is no where near the threshold to cause a significant player rift.
 

How many folks currently use DnDBeyond or will by 2024? Probably the majority of campaigns.
I'd very much like to see official statistics on this question. Personally, I'd be very surprised if the majority of campaigns are primarily relying on D&D Beyond at this point, even though Wizards clearly would like for everyone to use it eventually.

That said, there's an important difference between having an account on D&D Beyond, and being an active user of D&D Beyond. A difference I don't expect Wizards to distinguish in any official numbers, which will surely focus on user counts rather than engagement. (Especially since Wizards is under investor pressure to justify the purchase of DDB, based on the investor call a while back.)
 

I'd very much like to see official statistics on this question. Personally, I'd be very surprised if the majority of campaigns are primarily relying on D&D Beyond at this point, even though Wizards clearly would like for everyone to use it eventually.

That said, there's an important difference between having an account on D&D Beyond, and being an active user of D&D Beyond. A difference I don't expect Wizards to distinguish in any official numbers, which will surely focus on user counts rather than engagement. (Especially since Wizards is under investor pressure to justify the purchase of DDB, based on the investor call a while back.)
The last general demographics they shared are 50 million fans, and 10 million Beyond subscribers. So, probably not a majority, bit a pretty healthy community. The playtest changes seemed well situated to make the transition on Beyond painless for users.
 

The last general demographics they shared were 50 million fans over the lifetime of D&D (i.e. 50 years). And even that was just a PR release, not exactly detailed numbers or definitions.
 

I don’t think a divide is coming but I do think DnD is due for a recession just like the player down turn during late 3.5 and 4e. You can already see some of the hoards of 5e players piling into sub reddits looking for new games as they tire of dnds mechanics. I doubt it will be as big as the 3.5/4 one was but I do think a lot of 5e players will be looking to expand their range of games and the transition to One DnD will provide the opening for that to happen.
Let's hope so
 

No one did anything to 4e except what 4e did to itself. Pathfinder was created as a reaction to 4e's departure from the D&D norms and filled a need of the market. In fact, they still are filling a need that 5e isn't, which is where their game is thriving enough to expand into other media and niches.

As for their marketshare? We don't have exact figures, no one does. But its undeniable that they do have a presence and your most likely option for a game outside of D&D.
Pathfinder was created because WotC pulled the magazines from Paizo and slapped a horribly restrictive license on 4e.
 

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