It's very hard to believe that Wizards as an organisation are so profoundly short-sighted, forgetful and just dim-witted that they'd try this bum move for the second time in 16 years, assuming they try it in 2024.
It was obviously a huge backfire in 2008. Like, unquestionably. 4E could have gloried in intense 3PP support, instead WotC blew that all up with the extremely restrictive (and charged-for, at least initially) GSL, and managed to create a game which was a genuine competitor to 4E in the process.
It's one of the RPG industry's great historic mistakes, and a really obvious one too.
On the other hand, rich companies and rich people sometimes do incredibly stupid things. C.f. Twitter right now and the blue checkmark debacle. Everyone knew how dumb that was. Loads of people explained in detail why it was dumb. And yet it happened, and it's still on fire and rolling downhill at time of posting lol.
Obviously if they did this, I don't think I could support 1D&D, because honestly 1D&D is not that exciting. 4E was that exciting (for better or worse). 1D&D is just a weirdly tweaked 5E so far, that does not seem like a clean improvement. If I want a weirdly tweaked 5E, I daresay several companies will be eager to provide me with one if the OGL gets ditched for 1D&D! Sheesh Paizo might even do a spin-off Pathfinder that is basically a tweaked 5E.