Well, yeah, but WotC seems to have indicated that they may be trying to walk that back; even if that wouldn't hold up in court, and even if they never end up following through on it, their intimations on the matter are enough that 3pps are already fleeing the OGL.
My point is that the whole idea of a safe harbour is to provide shelter from shenanigans. If people flee the harbour at the first sign of shenanigans, then either (i) they're confused or (ii) it was never a safe harbour at all!
if WotC can attempt to rescind it, it seems that it is not really out of their control.
Anyone can send a C&D, or a claim for your money. You must get them all the time in your spam folder, just like the rest of us. That is not exercising control - it's just one party exaggerating it's legal rights. A safe harbour can't, and never could, stop that happening. The point of it is to actually create legal rights.
For two decades (almost) everyone thought that it could not be rescinded and that WotC would not go back on its promise. Turns out that the second one was wrong and that the harbor might not be as safe as it was thought; probably not because WotC can really win a case but because almost everyone is afraid to find out.
For me, this gets to the heart of it: if no one is prepared to lean into the
could not, because they were all relying on the
would not, then the whole notion of a legal guaranteed safe harbour was a charade. It turns out the OGL, in practical terms, was no different from a reassurance, repeated by WotC from time to time, that they would be nice and let people play with their toys.
It's a defense against the idea that the license itself can be changed due to strong-arm legal tactics. Paizo will relinquish control of the license to a law firm for care-taking until a foundation can take charge of it. The idea is that even if Paizo should be taken over by space Nazis, they won't be able to do anything to change the license.
To me this makes no real sense.
WotC is now - it seems - purporting to unilaterally change the terms of its licence contracts. Paizo could do exactly the same thing in the future. A promise by Paizo now that it won't do that is worth no more or less than WotC's promise 20 or 10 or 2 years ago that it would not.
This is what I mean by the legal stuff all turning out to have been an apparent waste of time. 3PPs got a robust legal agreement from WotC, but as soon as WotC huffs and puffs they run away - perhaps rationally so, given the costs of litigation, but their legal protection turns out to be worthless to them.
So why does anyone think getting differently-worded legal protection from Paizo makes them any better off. As you note, a Paizo of the future could huff and puff as well, and the costs of litigation are unlikely to go down over time.
Many different publishers plant to release different systems under ORC. There will not be a Paizo-dominated ecosystem.
This is, in a formal sense, no different from the existing state of affairs, where many publishers have their own SRDs licensed under the OGL or similar licences.
In a practical sense, it seems to me that Paizo clearly wants 3PPs to cluster around it's games, so it can get the same benefits from 3PP licensing as Ryan Dancey wanted WotC to get. If they succeed, their commercial situation seems analogous to WotC's.
EDITed to correct misattributed quote (with apologies to
@Jerik and
@Nikosandros).