Oh jeez, uh, hang on, I know there's a breakdown somewhere in the books. Even if we get past the big names (Manshoon, Szass Tam, Elminster, Larloch, Khelben, The Simbul & the rest of her sisters), I believe Descent into Avernus mentions that there are 3-6 Archmages just hanging out in Candlekeep. There's a lot of Tier 4 NPC's in Dragon Heist.
Is Candlekeep like the center of knowledge for the whole planet?
Back in the Grey Box days, King Azoun of Cormyr was level 20, his court wizard hit level 18 the last time I saw him statted.
Is Cormyr big?
40 on a planet of say 400 million doesn't seem common to me... 400 would start to feel like they were a lot more common than I would expect given the tier description.
But then again, an unknown apprentice can rise that high in under a year of working really hard.