Your example seems to be that the social rolls only rod the players of short term agency (whether we surrender now or not) not long term one? The former is also super bad. Whether to surrender or fight is an important choice with meaningful consequences, and one the players, not the dice, should decide. If a game robs me agency on such crucial moments, I don't want to play it.
Furthermore, I have hard time believing you regarding long term goals too. If a NPC lady can via mechanics cause a PC knight fall in love with them, then how does this not directly affect the goals the player is going to set? Certainly (especially in Arthurian milieu) this would rather directly lead to the knight trying to win the lady's favour.
So yeah, to me using mechanics like this severely undermines all your talk about player driven games and player agency. These are agency destroying mechanics of the worst kind.