If the players don't know what I, the GM, have chosen as the conclusion,
it doesn't matter what the conclusion is until it's revealed in play.
Given the evidence board shown, which of the 3 conclusions are possible for the GM to author?
The answer is all three. Sure, Solution Y is the
most probable and has the largest
preponderance of evidence, but will the players be shocked beyond belief if Solution Z is chosen instead? Or Solution X?
If this is my prep, then my prep demands that I set up the basic "game board" in the fiction to follow. I can even say, "I suspect, in the end, it will be Solution Y, but I'm leaving things open."
I get your argument ---
solutions can only be derived from things we know to be absolute fact.
But "the facts" in the shared imaginary space are whatever the GM, the system, the principles of play, and the group ultimately agree upon. If I, as GM, move one of the arrows on Evidence D from Solution Y to Solution Z,
before the players have encountered Evidence D, what difference does it make to the players?
Of course, you might ask, "Why as a GM would you even do that?" And the answer is that you'd do it in service of some other play agenda other than "I want the players to solve the mystery."
If the goal is to build tension, drive home character stakes/intent, foreshadow future events, or make salient a relevant concern of one or more PCs, why
wouldn't I as GM make that choice rather than NOT make that choice?
And OF COURSE you're never going to choose a solution not based on the evidence. I'm going to follow and respect previously established facts, fictional positioning, and known "truths." But the unknown can stay unknown until encountered.
The question, too, can be raised, "Is this more enjoyable for the players? Wouldn't they rather know that they cleverly solved the GM's firmly established 'mystery' that was set in stone via prep 6 months ago?"
For some groups, maybe. In my experience the players are
more than satisfied with discovering whichever conclusion is made in the end, AND they get the added benefit of greater investment and player stakes.
If that's not the same thing as "solving the mystery," well, okay then. I'll go for the better at-the-table experience every time. I don't care if it meets the definition. If you want me to concede the point, "You're not actually running a 'mystery' scenario," then sure, fine. When I'm playing or running
Ironsworn, I'm not running a 'mystery' and I couldn't care less.
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