"Promising hints of life on distant planet"

[J.Quondam]

We have no way of knowing, one way or another. it isn't actually "intelligence" that has allowed (or forced?) us to create our civilization. Rather, it is the uniquely (as far as we know) human ability to worry about tomorrow.

In any case, it is always a bad idea in a universe as vast as our to suggest that we are special or unique. If intelligent life evolved here, it almost certainly has evolved elsewhere.

To be sure, to be alone wouldn't necessarily mean we're "special".

We're working from a single data point, so we really have no idea what "special" even means. I mean, if civilization is "certain," then surely it's valid to claim that there must be something "special" about civilization, right? Maybe evolution has some built-in predilection for popping out technological civilizations, and Sid Meier is God. (Yikes. Let's not.)

All we know for sure is that we happened once; and we assume that evolution is blind and purposeless. From that all we can claim is that the probability of our existence lies somewhere between "we're nothing special among millions of civilizations" and "we're nothing special like any other unique event in the universe". Either way, we're still "nothing special."

 

[J.Quondam]

Ah, but how evolution does work makes it a statistical nigh-certainty anyway, at least on the cosmic scale. If life lasts long enough, on enough worlds, some of them will stumble into "intelligence" and "civilization".

Sure, given enough time in enough places, civilization might be a certainty. But does anyone really know if that cosmic scale is "big enough" compared to the scale of all potential possibilities of evolution? If the likelihood of the evolution of civilization:life is smallish like 1:1000 or 1:10000000, then yeah the universe is probably big enough and we're probably one of many civilizations. But if that ratio is too big - like 1:10^100 - the universe may simply not be big and old enough for it to have occurred more than once, in which case we're alone. (And of course, that all assumes that life itself is common, which is probably a good assumption, but is still undetermined. Life itself might be a fluke.)

But I suppose that figuring that out is why all the this planetary science, exoplanet research, information theory, evolution studies, etc, are interesting and valuable avenues of research for humanity as a civilization.

 

[J.Quondam]

Are you saying that hedgehogs are not a technologically advanced civilisation?

I would never suggest anything of the sort!

 

[Umbran]

We're working from a single data point, so we really have no idea what "special" even means. I mean, if civilization is "certain," then surely it's valid to claim that there must be something "special" about civilization, right?

Not really. The list of things that are as certain, or more certain, than civilization is quite long.

 

[J.Quondam]

Not really. The list of things that are as certain, or more certain, than civilization is quite long.

(That's kind of my point.)

 

[J.Quondam]

Fwiw, here's a link to a more science-y article on the topic:

Skepticism greets claims of a possible biosignature on a distant world

It’s really difficult to get a clear sign of life on an exoplanet.

arstechnica.com

 

[Ryujin]

Sure, given enough time in enough places, civilization might be a certainty. But does anyone really know if that cosmic scale is "big enough" compared to the scale of all potential possibilities of evolution? If the likelihood of the evolution of civilization:life is smallish like 1:1000 or 1:10000000, then yeah the universe is probably big enough and we're probably one of many civilizations. But if that ratio is too big - like 1:10^100 - the universe may simply not be big and old enough for it to have occurred more than once, in which case we're alone. (And of course, that all assumes that life itself is common, which is probably a good assumption, but is still undetermined. Life itself might be a fluke.)

But I suppose that figuring that out is why all the this planetary science, exoplanet research, information theory, evolution studies, etc, are interesting and valuable avenues of research for humanity as a civilization.

Or it could simply be that intelligence and civilization, at the level that might recognize one another, are uncommon enough that we're alone at this specific time and region of space.

 

[Umbran]

- the universe may simply not be big and old enough for it to have occurred more than once

In what sense are you using the term "universe"?

In a cosmological sense, the universe shows all the signs of being infinite in scope. And, if that is true, then it merely needs to be around long enough for one civilization to arise for there to, in fact, be infinite civilizations in existence, as a mathematical certainty.

This is just a "finite, but low probability in a truly infinite space" thing. Nothing weird about it. In a truly infinite universe, the fact that we exist means there's an infinite number of civilizations out there.

In the sense of the observable universe - that region of the universe whose emitted light can reach Earth, what you say is largely true. It is possible that we are the only "civilization" within the observable universe. We can "easily" be in the situation that there are infinite civilizations out there, but none we will ever be able to communicate with.

 

[J.Quondam]

In what sense are you using the term "universe"?

In a cosmological sense, the universe shows all the signs of being infinite in scope. And, if that is true, then it merely needs to be around long enough for one civilization to arise for there to, in fact, be infinite civilizations in existence, as a mathematical certainty.

That's the big question, i suppose. If the observations suggest that the greater universe is infinite in extent (and I defer to your astrophysics expertise over mine!), then I can't argue your reasoning there.

But I wonder: are "all outcomes of evolution" finite, and able to fit in the (greater) universe? Or are those possibilities infinite, and if they are is it a "small enough" sort of infinity that it fits in whatever sort of infinity that the universe is. Does that make sense? It's one of those questions that I don't have the background in mathematics to even ask, much less answer. But more quantitatively understanding "all the possibilities of evolution" would make for a convincing statement about infinite civilizations, either way.

In the sense of the observable universe - that region of the universe whose emitted light can reach Earth, what you say is largely true. It is possible that we are the only "civilization" within the observable universe. We can "easily" be in the situation that there are infinite civilizations out there, but none we will ever be able to communicate with.

Right. And with no more than speculation, I personally suspect that this is the situation for us: we're either all alone or effectively so.

I also think all of this is a pretty convincing argument that there's no weird physics allowing for FTL or time travel or the like. If such were possible, someone somewhere with some motivation would have showed themselves already. I'd assume that for every infinity of advanced civilizations who hide themselves, there's another infinity happy to show off.

 

[Ryujin]

I would argue that all evolutions are more likely to produce crabs, than civilizations.