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Bomb! Thanks very much.

I'm in agreement on one point "Challenge though is not the word I would use for them." As of now, it's difficult to construct a challenge that has any element of chance (translated --> risk) associated with it. The only guidance I can offer is that you can shoot for a particular target number...

Yes, that's correct. The problem that I point out is that the results are binary for the high Complexity Challenges. Note the last column: the players will either walk all over it or be deafeated... but the difference between the two, in terms of target number on a d20, is razor-thin.

Skill Challenges in 4e can be modeled using the negative binomial distributions, as others have commented. I was curious what the odds of overall success was at the various Complexities, and I had a sneaking suspicion the d20 roll was too important. We define a function, f, that is the...