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But how can you ever be sure?

I reject the notion that it's a linear scale. There are lots of things they could have done, moving in a variety of directions. As I said, Eberron strikes a good balance. It's also in "the middle", but it's a different middle from the one being used here.

At present I'm doubtful that there ever will be a next game. In light of recent conversations on a couple of other threads, I'm really not sure I'll ever feel confident returning. But if I do, it's almost 100% sure that I'll use some version of D&D, be that the 2014 version, the 2024 version...

So literally the only possibilities are "unthinking drones", "pit fiend bakers", or exactly what they've done with now? I don't believe that. I especially don't believe that when I look at Eberron.

I don't blame them for trying, either. Unfortunately, I consider their efforts to be an abject failure, worse than if they'd done nothing at all.

I find I can't get past the partial nature of the fixes. As long as they took the view that everything was strictly fictional and had absolutely no bearing on the real world, I didn't have an issue - orcs were orcs, not a stand-in for anyone in the real world, so depict them however you want...

I disagree. In fact, I think that's the opposite of the truth - you must design with your heart and your mind. If you start heart-first, you still need to marry it up with solid math or you get something gloriously attractive and completely unusable. If you start mind-first, you still need to...

I don't disagree with anything you say here. I was just noting the one example I'm aware of of an edition doing it well. (And, actually, I'll take the opportunity now to note that this is one of the biggest steps backwards that was taken with 5e, an edition that I generally do like.)

That I would be opposed to. I started playing back when I was 12; I wouldn't want the game to become something I wouldn't be happy introducing to my 12-year-old nephew (or my children in a few years). I like to think there's room for the sort of "mature themes" material I was envisaging. In...

The systems in 4e worked well. I wasn't a fan of that edition as a whole, but that bit of it (and especially the encounter building systems) were highlights.

This. Hasbro might be persuaded to part with D&D, if they find themselves in enough trouble and someone makes them a sufficiently good offer. More likely, I think, is that the same company that might make that offer would simply buy out the whole of Hasbro (D&D isn't the only valuable IP they...

I'm afraid I don't. I'm not sure it would be helpful anyway, as various factors complicate the numbers in odd ways - 4e was significantly impacted by DDI (which almost certainly cost a lot of book sales, brought in lots of money from subscriptions, but was also very expensive to develop and...

They sent out the documents that ended up being leaked, and thus precipitated the whole crisis. Whether those were intended as their final word or, as some have speculated, as a first draft for negotiation is largely irrelevant to me - they shouldn't have even taken the first step down that road.

I've never used a VTT. Even while running two campaigns online during lockdown, we used nothing more advanced that Teams or Zoom.

It depends which measure you use. If you look solely at PHB sales (which according to Ryan Dancey is the metric that matters), 1st > 2nd > 3.0e > 3.5e > 4e. (But 3.0e + 3.5e > 2nd.) And then 5e blows them all away. If you look at total book sales, 4e > 3.5e > 3e > 2nd > 1st. And then 5e blows...

I have no problem with WotC trying to monetize their brand. I have no interest in almost everything they and their licensees produce, but I don't object to them producing them. I do object to their actions concerning the OGL. Frankly, I consider even the attempt to be unethical, and had they...

I sometimes wonder how many 5e books in general are actually getting used, as opposed to existing to look good on a coffee table and allow time-poor cash-rich execs to let their geek flag fly.

To be honest, I think they're doing almost all of the right things. I'm not keen on their content, but that's just me - and given that I'm not gaming at the moment, it would be even more insane than normal to aim products at me. (That is, it would normally be crazy to target an audience of 1 out...

That's fair. Also, to answer your question, I'm not. :)

You said that "We won't know the answer to that until 2034 at the earliest." If they announce a new edition in 2028, that's a good bit before then.