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Thanks You're right that it doesn't take auto-hits and misses into account. It actually doesn't cause any error, except in the extreme case where you would otherwise miss on a natural 20. I decided to ignore it for the sake of simplicity--most people will never even try to attack something...

I'm a bored mathematician who isn't playing D&D right now because our DM is out of town. While watching TV, I came up with a formula for the optimal amount by which you should Power Attack in any situation. It worked out surprisingly simply: P = (A - T - D + 21)/2 A is your total attack roll...