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so it lost a little today, that does not make the 5 year curve incorrect, or means much of anything

it is not even using a d20 as its core resolution mechanic, I'd say anything that does not falls outside a D&D variant d12s, (on the player side) I agree with the rest

this assumes there is a fixed set of people, which is clearly not true you did not say that D&D cannot grow forever, you said sales stopped growing already

sales numbers, no, quarterly and annual reports, absolutely. While they do not list D&D explicitly as a category, they sometimes do mention D&D related tidbits like growth rate. I wish they would not try to obfuscate so much in their financial reporting, but it is still the best info we have...

Caverns of the Spore Lord is also free

Agreed, and people are free to express their opinion about the license used or even the lack of a license, just like Monty did D&D using CC-BY certainly did up the ante for the others

not sure what games you are looking at, but since the Dungeon Dudes create 5e content I am pretty sure they compare against its SRD, which is CC-BY, and the criticism is against games that are more restrictive than that. That is also reflected in their statement that they are surprised that...

I have not seen data to suggest this, apart from the Covid bubble bursting I am not counting on the irrationality of WotC / Hasbro over DH. Let's see how much attention DH has in 6 months, WotC cannot really react in that timeframe even if they wanted to. By then we also have Draw Steel and...

Panic may not be rational, but it still needs a trigger. I do not see the release of DH to be enough for that. If D&D sales shrink drastically, whether because of DH or for some other unknown reason, then WotC might panic and move in a DH direction to stem the flow, but I am not seeing DH as...

yes, they would probably lean into the same direction, not sure how else they could react in a way that would get people back. A new setting with some DH species and some other DH elements might be enough, maybe some narrative gaming advice in an 'of Everything' book too. I do not see them...

Dragonlance is owned by WotC, the only place you can publish them is on DMsGuild. Maybe you can also just host them somewhere yourself without charging money, but DMsG is the only place to charge for it

I am not seeing WotC panicking over DH. They ‘panicked’ over 4e because its sales were bad and falling, not because someone somewhere released a competing game. That competing game gained traction because 4e was failing all by itself, not the other way around. Since I do not see DH taking on...

then you lose the advantage CC has over ORC and anything that was said in that regard applies to CC-BY vs CC-SA as well (it is even worse than ORC as CC-SA is not limiting the SA to mechanics) nah, it shows that people are lazy and just type CC instead of CC-BY because they do know which...

or vice versa, not sure either, I see this more as a curiosity, it has no bearing beyond that point

I don't think anyone claimed PF outsold 4e in total, the most was that it did so for some quarters. Pretty sure that PF did not outsell 4e in total (at least for the time they both existed in parallel), the odds seem to be against PF having done so even for a few quarters. I'd still prefer...

the SRD is in CC and about as permissive as it gets (short of public domain). D&D Beyond is a way to buy their products, most of which you can also get as a book or for some VTTs. DMsGuild allows third parties to use WotC settings for their 3pp products. Could WotC include more in the SRD...

you said they should not be able to do so, not that they are allowed to and doing so is ok no idea, it would be a violation of the license though, but that only matters if there is anyone to enforce it, kinda like the OGL

probably worse, back then medicine had its limits, but at least the doctors accepted reality and gave sound advice

I am not sure how much I trust one person speaking for the whole duration when they worked ‘at both companies during different parts of the 4E era.’, which even leaves room for parts of that era where they worked for neither Not saying PF outsold 4e, just that I do not see them as the authority...

yes I disagree, ToV uses the CC and does not follow its own ORC license by KP withholding some mechanics from their SRD. If they are so convinced that share-alike is so good and important, why do they force anyone downstream but do not do so themselves? I’d much rather they used CC than ORC...