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hence the spend 10-100 times what you may be making back… part of that is just getting there, part of it is so you can stay there without that level of spending having to go on forever The ‘problem’ is no one is interested in spending this much for that little return

maybe it would work, spend 10x to 100x what you have any chance of ever making back, and you probably do have a chance at unseating D&D, for a while at least. No, WotC could stop marketing / ads tomorrow and nothing would change at all. Their school programs are good for them, their marketing...

you will never get a unified one, the community is too large and diverse for that. The majority does not know the OGL, does not care about it, and was not aware of WotC’s plans. Despite this, it was the largest backlash D&D had and got WotC / Hasbro to cave. The SRD in CC further split any...

When you look at what WotC / Hasbro invested in the last years, the trad game is already on the back burner

that seems like the only way any TTRPG could ever eclipse D&D...

No, no chance at all. People like tearing D&D down, but those two did not make it and it will do just fine without them. They might still be valuable assets for CR and grow their business, that does not require they surpass D&D however.

ouch, if that happens to me I’ll quit, but then I am in a position to, either I find something new or I retire a few years ahead of plan

as far as picking scenarios that make sense, the far real goblins do not really fit the bill. Lost Mine was made worse and the rest of the adventure is pretty disconnected from it, so yeah, not the best example. This ignores the minor nitpicky stuff.

picked a bad example there…

you still did not have Diplomacy?

I said nothing about it happening, I replied to a question why anyone would pay WotC for a product created using AI when they could just use an AI themselves

you don’t know for sure, but the probability can vary quite a bit

is anyone publishing such modules? I assume they are harder to make than ones that are ‘traditional’, unless you basically create a setting rather than an AP

which is where the refining comes in (and their own custom AI) that was not my point, but I do tend to care less for their recent releases on average (relative to ‘early’ 5e)

this part we actually do know

probably a cost & tariff thing

and who owns Lucasfilms?

that is not the point I was making, it was that with a little refining it is indistinguishable from their current products

A business can have more than one product, see WotC with MtG and D&D

while they spent more on D&D, they did so over years and predominantly in the past, the last two or so years they released two non-D&D TTRPGs. I would argue that is evidence that they are moving away from D&D, even if they do not let go of it entirely