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First of all, if the chance of success is around 50% for a single attempt, the chances for success for the whole challenge are very low. That is actually exactly where the other thread started. But if I instead consider that we have a more useful example where there are significant differences...

No it is not. By setting up general formulas and simulation tools it is very possible to test a lot of different cases. It is is also easy to see and analyse trends. I will agree that this is how it should be. And D&D 4th edition is in most cases excellent at this. I like the game a lot, which...

Thanks for your input. First of all I will make a confession. I am not and will never be a mathematician. My expertise is teaching English as a second language, but I happen to have a bit of math experience (which my employers have tricked me into using quite a bit) - and somewhat of a knack...

Hmm, so I should forget the math but be careful with the math so that it ends up being cool? Ok. Nice scene writeup, but what you are saying is basically that we should either ignore the system as written and fudge like crazy or be very careful with it. But I shouldn't be that mean. I could...

Something that came up in play: If you try to use a daily power but get knocked unconscious by an immediate interrupt (like an opportunity attack) - will you still have the power when you wake up? I thought one way, the DM another. As we were basically playtesting I didn't even bother stating...

True, complex challenges end up very hard to get through if you set the DCs high. That was one of the first things handled in the other thread, I think. Thing is, I don't think most people want a system where it is really unlikely that you will succed in your skill challenge - it sort of becomes...

I have tried to merge the skill challenge concept with how my usual D&D accomplices play through social scenes. For our group it will probably mean that in order to use a skill more than once you have to come up with fresh things that you are doing - in this case fresh arguments, probably...

Lets see... At level 10 you have 6 feats. A maximum of 4 of those could be dedicated to multiclassing - and 1 of those 4 also provides an extra skill in almost every case. (Not with Paladin/Cleric multiclassing.) So even if you have done all you can to multiclass, you still have a couple of...

I like that more complex skill challenges award a lot more XP. And I agree that they don't necessarily need to be a lot harder to succeed in order to award more XP. What I do feel is that it is important that good, creative players feel that they coming up with clever ideas is what tips the...

Interesting point, but there is always this... In the DMG, p121, it is explained how to reward XP for non combat enounters. Two cases are given, skill challenges and puzzles. Much as I love puzzle solving I would not call it roleplaying. Skill challenges on the other hand can be used for a...

Your program seems to be working correctly. If you look at the probability calculations that people made earlier in the thread (including my ugly little Excel sheet) they point to exactly that. If you look closer at the formulas used it will also make sense mathematically.

Look at the formulas involved. Hey why don't I quote one from my Excel sheet to make it easier to follow? :) This is the formula used to calculate the probability of success for a Complexity 4 challenge: =E4^14+E4^13*(1-E4)*14+E4^12*(1-E4)^2*91+E4^11*(1-E4)^3*364+E4^10*(1-E4)^4*1001 (E4 = the...

True. Actually something I really like. Normally I would never want to do that. But as it is the rules as written don't make me feel confident in that the difficulty level is set right. You are right that it is wrong to punish people for being especially good at something - it is just that...

Sorry, but no. Honestly I think you are a victim of the Gambler's Fallacy there... :) The Gambler's Fallacy is after all a subcase of people believing that the math is not telling the whole story - or simply misundertanding how the math works. The math tells the whole story for general cases -...

Having some spare time right now, and wanting an excuse to dive into the books, I looked through the powers and magic items in the PH. There are only 12 utility powers that directly boost skill checks in the PH. Some of them are very specific and unlikely to come into play very often in a skill...

Look at the math in that other thread. Then please point out where Gambler's Fallacy comes into play. I would love to know where, as I have a few hundred former students I need to alert. After all, you are saying that mathematical formulas taught in high schools and universities are wrong...

Interesting and informative post, but it raises a number of questions: Why is stuff like this not brought up in the DMG? The DMG is meant to help the DMs after all. Does this mean that skill challenges at level 1 (where people don't have utility powers or many magic items) should be avoided or...

Love that reply. Thank you!

NP. Especially as they aren't my cards. Ander00 did all the work, I just thought too many people had missed it so I made a link.

I will not tell anyone how much time it took me to get that to work. :) And don't thank me too much, I am only the linker, and have not done any of the real work creating those cards. A few tips to those why try this and want to make PDFs: Get a virtual PDF printer of some sort. They tend to...