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I sometimes wonder how many 5e books in general are actually getting used, as opposed to existing to look good on a coffee table and allow time-poor cash-rich execs to let their geek flag fly.

To be honest, I think they're doing almost all of the right things. I'm not keen on their content, but that's just me - and given that I'm not gaming at the moment, it would be even more insane than normal to aim products at me. (That is, it would normally be crazy to target an audience of 1 out...

That's fair. Also, to answer your question, I'm not. :)

You said that "We won't know the answer to that until 2034 at the earliest." If they announce a new edition in 2028, that's a good bit before then.

Yeah. Either they just panicked or, as someone else said, the battle within WotC was definitively won by one faction.

Not too much of a bit, though - I picked up that WW monster book along with my PHB, and before the 3e MM was out.

If they announce a new edition in three years or, worse, cancel the game outright, I think we can make some assumptions.

Well... except that kind of did. With the credible threat on the table that the OGL maybe could be broken, nobody can now trust it as the foundation of their business. So the producers have now moved on to other things. Had WotC not completely lost their nerve and put the SRD under the CC...

Aren't there third-party materials for 5.5 on the DM's Guild?

That's true... but I'll be extremely surprised if the 2024 PHB outsells the 2014 one.

I thought the 2024 PHB was supposed to be the fastest-selling RPG product of all time? I do tend to agree, though, that D&D's moment of prominence in the zeitgeist seems to be coming to a close. And that's not really a surprise - geek media as a whole seems to be slipping away. Both Star Wars...

But none of these is as big as Star Wars, so if no SW RPG is making that money, it's pretty safe to say nothing else will. The value of "Dungeons & Dragons" is in the brand, which was and is protected. As you point out in the rest of your post, that line of argument just doesn't stack up...

Uh, Doctor Evil. That has already happened. Someone did make a "Star Wars D&D". They were called "Wizards of the Coast". It didn't make a bazillion dollars, though. Sufficiently advanced ineptitude is indistinguishable from malice. :)

Ideally, I'd prefer to see all options: a 'simple' wizard for people who just want to play, a 'complex' wizard for those for whom the challenge is part of the point (and 'simple' and 'complex' fighters, rogues, etc). That is, I'd rather player intelligence not be required to play a wizard (or...

Okay, fair enough, that's an overstatement. Perils of posting in too much haste.

I don't think you can turn it into a science - what looks like it should work on paper just doesn't always work in reality. Either the monsters just become too formulaic or the system throws up weird results. There will always need to be some scope for adjusting and tweaking to turn something...

???

Apparently there was a long spell when most folks at TSR not only didn't play but were actually contemptuous of those who did. Which probably explains a lot of the trouble they ran into in the 90s.

Not quite: I did specify either the PHB or the MM. If they add something new as a playable species, that would presumably be some other book. (Of course, when they do the next revision, all bets are off. But that's far enough away we probably don't need to think about that. :) )