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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Sure. Why don't you give me the whole set of attributes and I'll put them in. (Is that for both dwarves or just the guardian?) Pre-racial would be best. I could do these now, but I want the sim to do more of the calculations for me so it's less error-prone. Still, it's not hard. I might be able...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Okay, I've re-run the sim with the correct damage calculation. The two Guardian Fighter builds are much more balanced than my first run indicated. Also, just for fun, I swapped Brute Strike for Comeback Strike in the Craghammer build. Warhammer + Toughness: 54.7% +/- 3.1%. Craghammer + Dwarven...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Oops, so it isn't. That makes me feel better--I wanted it to be more balanced. :) I'll update my previous post when I fix it. I'm in the middle of extracting out feats as stand-alone entities (rather than built-in to the PCs' stats) and I had forgotten that I hadn't done damage bonuses on the...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    No problem. The sim is far enough along that this sort of match-up is pretty easy (and not too error prone). The guardian fighter with the previous build--Warhammer + Toughness--had a survivability of 54.7% +/- 3.1%. The new build... surprised me. It has a survivability of 37.6% +/- 3.0%...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Perfect! Thanks. I've added it to the sim's results.
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Dwarven Weapon Training: Threat or Menace? One of Elric's posts reminded me of a claim that crops up from time to time on the boards: supposedly, Dwarven Weapon Training is ridiculously overpowered. It gives access to all superior axes and hammers, not just one (like weapon proficiency does)...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    I'd be very interested in programming this algorithm into the sim, if it's not too difficult for you to post it.
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Splat. I've run the simulation for the full range of DMG-recommended encounters (lvl+0 to lvl+5) and um... well, splat. Survivability drops off quick in these one-on-one fights. I imagine a full party would help a lot. Note that I've run this sim at very low resolution (1,000 days) due to the...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Greatweapon Fighter vs. Guardian Fighter Mengu suggested comparing a Guardian Fighter to the Greatweapon Fighter we've been using: I had some time to work on the sim today, so I coded it up. The results impressed me. The Guardian Fighter and Greatweapon Fighter are nearly perfectly balanced...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Sounds interesting. Tomorrow's game night for me so I won't be working on the sim, but I'll try putting it into my sim later in the week. As sfedi mentioned, my sim is more accurate (for now)--mine includes action points, which allows the dwarf to one-shot the soldier during most first fights...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    The "miraculous recovery" on a 20 is coded (it happens in the example of 2 fights survived), but the effect is minimal. The action cost is too high--the dwarf tends to be put right back down again after getting up. (I ran an experiment with cheater 20s and the dwarf went up and down like a...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Death Cab for Dwarfie The "dying" condition and death saving throws are now in the sim. They didn't really affect survivability, but with that final bit of code, I've finished off the basic one-on-one melee simulation. Where next? Dwarf Fighter vs. Soldier Dwarf Fighter: Stats: HP 27; AC...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Well, there's your problem. Your PC is clearly getting down below zero HP, but somehow isn't getting marked as 'dead'.
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    The PC doesn't recover if he's dying. I suppose I'll need to implement that once we have multiple PCs, but it's not an issue just yet. So far, the monster just keeps attacking the PC until he's dead (even if he's dying). The soldier has an "Spend Action Point" power (as do all creatures in my...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Looking at your HP results, it looks like there's something wrong with monster damage. At 1d10+3, it should do a minimum of 4 damage every time, and yet that's the most it ever does. I'd guess that your monster is only doing a point of damage each time it hits, or there's some other error in...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    A Bird in the Hand I've tweaked the sim's AI slightly (very slightly) so that it will spend healing surges during a short rest even if as much as 75% of the healing will be wasted. This has increased survivability by a miniscule amount, but it seems to be a bit more realistic. I might fiddle...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Action Man I've put action points into the sim. So far, there isn't any simulation of resource hoarding, so action points are spent as soon as they become available. Action points make a huge difference in survivability. Anybody analyzing the math and not taking action points into account is...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Thanks! People's continued interest is what's keeping this project going. I wouldn't say no to experience points, either. :p
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    This is a tough question, and it applies to the daily power question as well. I don't want the sim to be a test of tactics (or my ability to code AI), but rather a way of looking at how the math is balanced against itself. At the same time, boneheaded tactics would distort the results, too...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Taking Initiative I've added initiative rolls to the basic simulation. This has hurt the dwarf's survivability even more--down another 22%, to 43% (from 55%). I only have one more core element to add to the sim: action points. Hopefully that will raise the dwarf's survivability a bit. Here...
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