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OK - here is what was read: "My old group waited for about a year to start 5e because we were still playing our Pathfinder 1 game. They were not too thrilled when initially looking at 5e, but a few of them are now "play nothing but 5e" people. IME, it's not as "right away" as you may imagine...

I totally agree that this is a consistent thing.

Well, isn't that completely irrelevant then? No offense at all because having a preference for pre-3E to 3E is totally cool. But do you dispute that 3X and the OGL created the "second golden age" and/or "the glut" depending on how you want to look at it? If you are saying that 3E NEVER got...

I don't know man. I remember that there were SOME people who were opposed to the change. But, then again, this was the days when there were people driving around with bumper stickers which said "Save D&D, kill a Magic Player". D&D was hurting bad. Around here I had to leave work early to go...

What? It takes a bit more than that to claim confirmation bias. If you think that 5E had a slow reception, then noted. I stayed with PF at first myself, and then after playing 5E for a bit switched BACK to PF because I like it more. So no idea why you would suggest I have a pro-5E bias...

Wait a second, that word was specific to a comparison to AD&D 2E. Nothing more or less. It think you misinterpreted.

3E had massive immediate adoption. 2E, maybe not. But then again, people talked about the inverse Star Trek rule, so I don't think 2E is a comparison that PF2E is craving.

Yeah. I'll just repeat that I don't think trying to tea leaf out these kind of sales numbers is fruitful. Is there a trend? How does the behavior mesh with other lines of evidence? What do we see in terms of who is really playing the game/ how widespread is play?

Right, but one should expect the Magic 8 ball to say "Ask again later, but crushing PF any way you slice it". This is a point I strongly disagree on. PF did not have an issue with waiting on people to adopt. 5E did not have an issue with waiting on people to adopt. 4E had people saying "we are...

There is a difference between having and giving the data you do have the level of interpretation it merits. I can't say what the sales are for each thing. And I have not claimed to. But I can point to multiple lines of evidence which show a common trend. I don't agree. Pre PF2E release PF was...

I'm a big fan of trying to include as many facts and lines of evidence as possible. And, yep, as I said back then and as I'm saying right now, "time will tell".

Ultimately, there is little way to argue with this. But there are some things to consider. If you look at PF vs. 3.5, PF embraces the over the top magic implicit in 3.5 and runs with it. It is little things like tweaks to sorcerers, but they kinda "turned it to 11". And there were people who...

Well, clearly we don't. According to the historic Top 5 list on ENWorld PF held steady at #2 until SF came out. Then It is 5E/SF/PF. I am assuming that PF was still dying a slow death, but was more or less steady and it was just that SF was better. Certainly that is purely an assumption. The...

What are you disagreeing with? You seem to be providing a list of reasons WHY the things I'm saying are happening are in fact happening.

So are you saying they hoped to do better, but that the worst case scenario (which is not a done deal yet) is still better long term? I can absolutely agree that they thought the gamble was worthwhile. But I don't think there are (or will be) seeing the results that they wanted.

Why invest money to end up close to where you started?

You need an editor. :) Anyway, I don't disagree with anything. Your "quibble" at the ends, I think, paints ALL new gamers as this super casual subset. Obviously there are always going to be a steady flow of "more serious" (that isn't supposed to be read as any version of "better") gamers in...

totally agree. If you look at it as a barometer and don't treat it as more than that, then you can work within that broad parameter. Trends and multiple lines of evidence, not decimal places.

This seems to retread ground that has been covered numerous times already. I have no idea what Paizo's standard of "success" is. I've never claimed to. I've already directly commented on Paizo being well diversified and probably doing just fine. None of that means that PF2E has moved the...

Completely fair enough. For what it is worth I agree, I just don't see the need to know their sales. We can look at the community to answer the questions that I am asking. But it is amusing that on the one hand we have the market tea leaves presented as if carved on golden tablets and hand...