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Despite my back and forth with Mistwell (I still disagree with the position that box office does not matter), I can look at recent behaviour for streaming spending. $200M for The Tommorrow War $70M to $90M for Army of the Dead Not to mention the huge $$$ spent on shows like the new Lord of the...

No, you keep replying to my posts saying that the movie was a BOX OFFICE failure by saying that 2x the cost is wrong to determine if the movie was a BOX OFFICE failure. If there is a magical number to apply to the box office tax that makes the $250M movie not a BOX OFFICE failure, then please...

I guess you are not used to the effects of a sliding scale? Nor have you read the many links in this thread from the press all using 50%? I am constantly forecasting larger numbers as paert of my daily job, and 50% is pretty good as a top level estimate for box office revenue. Once you get...

Just about every article, including in the main industry magazines use 50% as the normal approximation. So, again you dismiss standard numbers with zero proof of what is the right one. How ouch of the total did the movie make in week one? So places, like China, the take for the producers is...

To be clear, take box office and divide by 2 for how much money goes to the movie. Ignoring marketing $151M means $302M to break even from the box office proceeds. Roughly $200M in box office means $100M more needed in box office to break even or a $50M hole. Ignoring marketing, I think a $50M...

Unless you work at Paramount or Hasbro/eOne, you are guessing as much as anyone else in this thread how much it made from streaming. So there is no absolute that it made money, especially for Paramount who would be paying for the steaming but does not have the subscription revenue yet to match...

I thought the movie was good and glad I went to go see it. Unfortunately, not enough people agreed and it did poorly at the box office. I think that as much as Mistwell put up a formula, there generally is a correlation between the value for streaming and box office performance. We are now...

I don’t begrudge anyone playing it. I played for a short while in a campaign run by one of the Foundation leaders who had played in Barker’s game and I detected zero of such crap in either the game or the banter around it. I just feel that the guy that wrote it was a practicing Nazi and it was...

I doubt that anyone in the current Foundation shares any of the Nazi beliefs. I also think they knew much sooner and did nothing until they had no choice.

I find that hard to believe. The relationship was more than just playing in his game for some of them, some of them have poured over Barker's private papers for years, and the allegation was known for quite a while before it flared into full public view. I think that the current public statement...

I put my books away. I can seperate the artist from the work, but the organization that continues to publish the work knew about the allegations a long time before it became widely public and I decided that their reaction rang false. I appreciate that it is not being hidden any longer (link...

https://www.tekumelfoundation.org/post/the-tekumel-foundations-board-of-directors-statement-on-serpents-walk This was posted at the time the news came out publically. I have not seen anyone argue that the allegations were not true for quite a while.

I think that there is no more doubt that HAT is a box office flop. Big hole for streaming and home sales to cover, but that remains to be seen if it is enough.

You keep saying over and over that the movie will not lose money. Based on box office receipts alone, it certainly will lose money. How do you know that the other possible sources of revenue for the movie will cover the large hole it will be in after it finishes its run in theaters?

I don’t get it. You say in one breath that I am wrongheaded because I am not taking into account what the industry is using today. In the next you say you are as clueless as me. How does that reconcile? How do you know that there is this new formula when you have so little knowledge that you...

I finally added to the box office today. Went to Toronto on business and slipped in a 12:20 showing. One small step towards break even. :p

The formula is still valid for comparing box office results against the cost. And the pandemic is over (I mean, not really, but most people act like it is). Streaming services are not quite as hot. Paramount has a library of their own but if D&D is exclusive to their much smaller streaming...

I think it is quite simple. Box office flop is judged on the box office receipts vs. the production cost plus marketing with the general rule that you need to make 2x the cost to breakeven. I think it is pretty clear that on the standard definition, D&D HAT is a box office flop. Will the...

Not really. That is what the theaters collect, not what goes to the studio (50% is the usual rough estimate) Does mean that I don’t see it being an absolute flop.

I think you and are similar. The movie is not covering costs so it is not a success. But compared to so real flops, this one does not seem to be at that level as well. I think the movie is a failure on a stand alone basis and I think that the extras in the side don’t seem to justify the cost as...