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I think you are 100% correct from looking at their marketing ("language") and their initial plan. But I also think that the "luck" was a lot more on the bean counters side and it was much less so on the D&D design team side. The things they were saying at the time were very focused around...

So you agree that PF2E isn't growing? That was the topic. And you just said you were demonstrating that "growth isn't flat as implied." But we don't have any evidence to show anything other than that growth IS flat and now you are saying that as well. I don't expect PF to grow in 2020. I...

is this close? ( Not selling as well as PF2E, btw)

This show "flat". We can debate the value of the data. But it shows flat. I haven't seen anything showing growth. It sold extremely well when it was released. No surprise there. The question is, do the people who buy it keep playing it and does its marketshare grow?

But you have not demonstrated that growth isn't flat. You've just flashed a bunch of static numbers that don't mean much side by side.

Um, you posted today's data for both editions. That is pretty much the definition of comparing things. If anything the market is much bigger now than it was back then, so the 5E rising tide should make PF2E that much better off. As far as any evidence shows, it isn't growing.

The one prediction I'll make regarding the pandemic and PF2E: Two years from now PF2E fans will be saying that the pandemic timing was to blame.

Thats kinda the point. I love PF, but I have everything I need for that system. I stopped being a subscriber long ago and was buying very little. PF was done and NEEDED to be replaced. So the very fact that you are comparing PF2E sales to a game that everybody already own and has outlived...

The whole "success" things is a beaten dead horse from upthread. You can find me predicting that PF2E will not end up having the same marketplace presence as PF1E. I believe they could have (yep, that is an assumption) and I certainly think they had a built in fanbase that could have made PF2E...

shrug. OK. Why engage in the conversation? There is nothing I'm assuming here that is a bigger uncertainty than any other speculation in the thread long before we ever heard of Covid-19. Seriously, you seem fixated on me being wrong without any regard to anything else. Which is flattering I...

I agree with these points. I have not said the sky is falling and I have already agreed that other items are spiking which would change the rating of an item even if the units/week stayed constant. But a lag of a few days is not the factor.

Well, we do know that the site is promising delivery dates that are within a week, rather than a standard 2 day. So that would be a 4 to 5 day lag. That is meaningless to a dropoff that is well over a month old.

I think we are talking about two compatible things. And, frankly, your point is probably closer to the OP since he is talking about the mechanics. But there were also unquestionable making a lot of comments about the size of the MMO world. WOW was HUGE at that point. (not that MMOs are not...

Yes, this also makes sense and would fit in.

Fair enough and no offense intended toward you. But others are saying I should accept the rankings issue to be settled based on your input. Again, the drop in rankings goes back weeks now. Even if the books were delayed two full weeks, there would be a lag and then a rebound to normal pace...

As the insider, do you have any actual data regarding the number of unfulfilled PF2E orders in the past month?

Because it doesn't track. "Working for Amazon" and having inside knowledge on the sales delay of PF2 Core book are two different things. On the one hand it is possible that people are simply buying a lot less gaming books due to the pandemic. On the other hand the sales could be right where...

Ok, same question. Do you think this is materially changing the rankings?