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Isn't that (or won't that be) cancelled anyways? Edit: Huh, not yet: Gen Con LLC | Updates on Gen Con and COVID-19 Be Safe, Be Well, Tom Bitonti

Eh, I'm tending to think that we are trending down towards Brave New World plus Fahrenheit 451, where media is created to continually overwhelm folks, where infotainment is used to infatuate and un-moor rational though. This is a great read: Which Dystopian Novel Got It Right: Orwell’s ‘1984’...

I’ve found that the more I try art (in my case miniature painting, or selecting frames for art, or wood staining), the more I appreciate art generally. My admiration and respect for exceptional art has increased tremendously. Be Safe, Be Well, Tom Bitonti

I don't remember seeing projections on worldometer. The projections were here: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america Be Safe, Be Well, Tom Bitonti

Yeah, haircuts were perhaps not the best example. I was given hair cuts at home when I was young, and know at least one set of friends which are cutting their own hair for now. But generally, personal services of this sort will be difficult to provide while maintaining social distancing...

This seems likely. I'll have to think through what I've read to tell which have depicted transitions which aren't completely catastrophic (e.g., Lucifer's Hammer describes a transition, but one which is a total catastrophe). Maybe history is a reasonable guide? Any of a number of...

From: US may have to endure social distancing until 2022 if no vaccine is quickly found, scientists predict "Intermittent distancing may be required into 2022 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available," they wrote in their report...

Which, in the US, leads to (1) the brick wall of invasive contact monitoring, plus (2) social distancing for years, plus (3) massive increases in testing. The difficulty with testing being asymptomatic spreaders. (I‘m trying to build a rigorous analytic framework for understanding the likely...

I set the proportion of the population relative to the R0 value: 1/2 for R0 being 2, 2/3 for R0 being 3. I'm aware that there is no evidence of lasting immunity. If there is no lasting immunity, then what? If there is neither lasting immunity, nor an effective treatment, nor a vaccine? How...

Working from a different direction: How long (if ever) until the virus is eradicated outside of laboratories? What proportion of people would need to have resistance to the virus to prevent a new outbreak? My sense this is that the virus will be with us for at least several years, and for a R0...

There are other limitations. For example, continuous, 24 hour surveillance is not allowed without a warrant. There is precedence on this in re police putting a tracker on a suspects car. (Although, this is a limited protection if most public locations perform surveillance.) Be safe, be well...

I am aware. Taking a break for a bit. I have very strong opinions regarding testing in the US. Be safe, be well, Tom Bitonti

Of those in the study. But I could get behind a national testing program. if there is an eventual vaccine, that should be for everyone; so should be testing. Be safe, be well, Tom Bitonti

Myself, for the last month I’ve been shuttling between homes (both empty except for myself), and made occasional excursions for groceries, cleaning supplies, or take out. Likely more of the same for the next month at least. But I can see some folks being unwilling to be tracked. There are...

Which is perplexing. I‘d want to select several populations of statistically significant sizes and give them all tests on a regular basis. That seems to be the only way to measure true Infection rates and true symptom distributions. I’d also want the entire population to wear location and...

These projections —IHME | COVID-19 Projections — seem dubious, with peaks being reached tomorrow. I don’t see how the projected curve matches other statistics that I’ve see. Are we anywhere close to an overall steady state (in the US), that is, where the number of new cases matches the number...

Nice article! A minor data presentation nit: The “doubling lines” are better viewed as being attached to the curve endpoints, instead of at the origin. What region one of curves is in is not indicative of the current rate of growth, which is indicated by the slope at the endpoint. One might...

What 60k number? Contradicting the steady state of deaths/day, the number of active cases is still increasing. Perhaps that can be explained by increases in the number of people that are tested. Tom Bitonti

The latest (10-Apr-20, 10 AM EDT) at United States Coronavirus: 469,464 Cases and 16,711 Deaths - Worldometer seems to be showing a steady state for new cases in the US over the last few days. My very speculative conclusion is that the current social distancing is enough to prevent exponential...

I considered that, but stopped at 1918, since that was how far back you went in your post. I was thinking more of civilian deaths from city bombings, e.g., when Tokyo was fire bombed. Also, factoring in the different total world population. Very roughly, WWII averages out to about 32,000...