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None of which contradicts my point that human decisions/knowledge are not based on certainty. So holding LLM knowledge to the certainty standard doesn’t fly. It’s not a reduction. That’s what human knowledge is, pattern recognition. That isn’t to say there aren’t complexities and nuances...

I have fairly high hopes that ai gms will eventually form the basis for more user driven video game stories. At that point pen and paper is probably dead though ;)

I agree with most of this as well but I think people in general have an overly optimistic view about what human knowing is. Like something as basic as knowing the world is round, I’ve never done the experiments myself, but even if I did I can self deceive. I’ve seen pictures, but photos can be...

Human Knowledge is also just pattern recognition and appeals to authority or popularity. Human decisions are based not off certainty but off what is most likely to occur next based on previously found patterns, popular consensus or authority. Mandela effect, Pareidolia, etc. In many cases we...

By definition it wasn’t a representative survey. Being a non-representative survey does mean it’s a flawed to draw any conclusions about the whole population from it. This doesn’t mean the survey itself cannot have any other flaws while also being non-representative.

Right, I never said it was worthless. Just that it wasn’t representative. Exactly!

you are using different words here. Different classes of people respond to the survey at different rates than is in the population. Even you didnt dispute this. That makes it by definition a non-representative sample.

But it does indicate the results cannot be trusted as representative.

I don’t think you understand what a representative survey is. It doesn’t matter that the results might be the same across classes, it matters whether your survey sample mirrored the population proportionally along potentially important class splits. If this isn’t achieved then the survey results...

We do. What we know is that in virtually every domain those that invest a lot more time into something generally have different perspectives than those that don’t. So we most definitely can make that inference. It need not be scientifically rigorous for that kind of inference since that’s the...

Agreed. The survey barrier to entry was high. I never participated in any but 1. It’s really hard to get non biased results with high survey barrier to entry. Good bet but I think it will be longer. I think they want stable d&d tabletop to push other d&d branded products. I could see them...

Most importantly the way real surveys work isn’t to do a survey and say since you cannot prove the sample is not representative that it’s just as likely to be representative as not. Unless one has evidence the study is representative one shouldn’t act like it is or likely is representative.

I’d also note most people have hopes they may see level 11+ play even though it rarely happens. That factors in as well.

if you want him to be a martial damage dealer it’s probably fighter or rogue. If you want him to lean toward caster then control is probably your best option. I think Druid gets a bit better control than cleric so I’d say Druid there.

I’d be good counting such spells when the wizard is guaranteed to have the funds to buy them, where they have the option to buy them, where they can pick whatever spell to buy they want a scroll of and where something else isn’t more important to spend their gold on. But even if we give them...

Because they took rituals. It’s fairly simple logic.

#1. I don’t think so. I’m not even sure that Scroll magic marts are actually the most common playstyle. An occasional random scroll from loot or procedural generation to stock a merchant, maybe. #2. If it really makes that huge a difference then let’s call it out. If it’s the a major deciding...

Ah. But I already accounted for their value when I discussed rituals. Trying to double dip the value of those known spells for rituals and for non ritual spells is precisely why I’m pushing back.

Why?

That's the thing, i think in the style of game you play that Sorcerers are better through level 10. I don't think that's universal, but probably a bit more common than wizards being better in those levels. Arcana Expertise, Intelligence Skills, Find Familiar, Tiny Hut, Augury and Detect Magic...